You must have noticed a cheer leading chorus over the Paris attacks accompanied by an admonition that TVIX shorts would now fry as a result, followed by sour indignation when markets didn't actually crash. It's just the nature of the beast i guess.
Fast track has no bearing on the likelihood of approval and you're missing my point. Moreover, in most cases, fast track designation occurs when drugs have limited commercial value. I get the feeling you don't have a scientific background.
While it's true that many phase 3 drugs fail to achieve FDA approval, the studies leading up to phase 3 are publicly available and the risk of failure that you cited--whether accurate or not--is mostly irrelevant. As long as you have some background in epidemiology, biotechnology, and the experimental method, you can put a solid handle on the risk. As I pointed out before, you don't need to hold through any binary event. As long as you have properly assessed the science behind a biotech pipeline, the stock will appreciate long before the adcom or/and PDUFA date. I do quite well with biotech names--that and and electronics technology are where I make most of my money in fact. TVIX isn't really very important to me.
That statistical interpretation is way too simplistic - each case is unique. There is actually incremental science, with interim published results leading up to an NDA. There is no requirement for holding through any binary event, like adcom or PDUFA, either. If the science is good, there will be an anticipation rally, and if you don't like to take big risks, you sell before the published adcom or PDUFA date.
How do you reckon the trend is up dibari?
TVIX Jan 1 = $30
TVIX Sept 1 = $20
TVIX Oct 1 = $12
TVIX Nov 1 = $6
TVIX Dec 1 = $6
Where is the "up" part of the TVIX trend?
The one heading for NDA, what's the drug? I"m guessing it's in phase 3 now? beaten down, and in phase 3, is always worth a look see.
Yea, but you have to give the TVIX community credit for seeing right through him -- six red thumbs! And each one of them is an adjective: sanctimonious - self righteous - hypocritical ...
So, TVIX is controlled by the FED? I didn't know that. Janet must be short the note.
You know, to quote myself from another post:
The Chinese shakedown was precipitated by investigations into Chinese brokerage firms and has no bearing on U.S. equities. The Paris and Mali attacks were unfortunate, but should have no direct impact on U.S. equities. The market is an exercise in pure capitalism, and it's doing exactly what it should do in these cases: shrugging off news that doesn't directly affect company fundamentals.
It's hard to predict short term index movements, so just cross your fingers on that bounce... i don't know what your entry price was, but a short term to bounce 6.50~7.00 isn't unthinkable, if you're lucky, just on headline noise. Keep in mind though, without a major market disruption, the trend for TVIX is always down. Good luck.
ironman ~ TVIX tracks the S&P 500 short term futures (not the "mid term" index) and is designed to leverage that at 2:1. However the relationship can break down as we approach expiration dates or because of contango. CS does arbitrage trading to try and ensure accurate tracking, but arbitrage can lead to rapid price decay as the float gets diluted. Also, keep in mind that VIX futures trade 24/7 so the relation ship can get blurry after a holiday. At 4:00 pm on Nov 25 they were at 16.77 and right now they are at 17.03 - a rise of about 1.5%. If TVIX were on track, it would have gained 3% but, in fact, it's only up about 1% as i write this, so there is an inherent weakness now in the note, making it a dangerous bet. The fact is, going long TVIX is always dangerous, because price erosion is built into the model.
I owned AEZS shares all day Wednesday and sold in PM today after seeing the downgrade last night. Why is that so hard to believe?
VIX futures are at a high for the day, up 3.65% at 17.18 and TVIX is up just 2.19%, so yes the note is underperforming.
Might have something to do with ZACKS downgrade that came out last night. I sold in PM because of that. You need to turn on GOOGLE alerts if you're going to mess with high beta microcaps.
There's a reason why the market crashed, and it has nothing to do with the macro:
"SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Chinese shares sank more than 5 percent on Friday in their biggest drop since this summer's rout after Reuters reported the stock regulator had widened its probe on brokerages to include the country's fourth-biggest securities firm."
It's such a strange environment. While America celebrates Thanksgiving, presumably taking inventory of all the good things in life, here on this message board they are crossing their fingers hoping for a market crash or terrorist attack, or any sort of disaster, just so TVIX can go up. There's something almost perverse about that.