Hard to make any sense of the VIX these days. What? Shanghai stock exch is batty ~ of course it's batty; it's in China. The FED might raise rates 1/4% and that will spark a recession? No. Sept 1 came and went and the FED hasn't raised rates, so the market rallies... eventually all the muppets will figure out it's going to happen around the middle of the month, if it happens at all, and markets will gap back again. Only one thing is reasonably certain: without a cataclysmic binary event, markets will stabilize eventually, and TVIX will flush itself back down the toilet.
could be... VIX futures are falling significantly faster than realtime VIX (onn the other hand, it could just be a market blip). It was always just hype anyhow: a quarter % interest hike isn't going to shatter the market (whenever that happens) and china isn't actually crashing and burning either. Factory orders up, GDP improving... you can't always fan a barrel fire into a major forest fire.
Somebody (prolly bonanza) bashed me yesterday saying: "beachbum was right all along" and i just don't see it, cuz beachbum was holding shares north of $50 - that's what usually happens to TVIX longs sooner or later - and it's starting to look like they're about to drag the fat lady onstage for a medley.
if i were inclined to adopt any sort of long position in TVIX and i'm not), i'd say holding to just before the FOMC meeting is reasonable strategy. Shortly after the meeting TVIX will likely head back into contango (even if the FED does raise interest 25 basis points).
Been short for most of a year (covered in June at 81c then went short again on Greek ref and have added twice since then). If i could predict short term market action, i'd have been better off covering at $5, but experience has taught me to have patience, and TVIX will eventually trend back to a reverse split.
OMG ~ Maybe it will or maybe it won't, but that has nothing to do with the question. The question alone makes me want to laugh out loud (LOL) and that must be what they mean by "better lucky than smart (BLTS) ~ bacon lettuce tomato sandwich.
What are you talking about (WAYTB)? There is nothing to change... TVIX has no fundamental value and any price swing is always about market action. There is no "price target".
electroballs had to sell a sailboat and a cannery in Honduras to cover his margin calls.
i expect this will continue for some time, or at least till the rate-hike drama gets put to bed.None of it really has me much worried yet: China ~ no big deal (it's a fledgling stock market that ran too hi too fast last year, like a low float penny stock); interest rates ~ who cares if they raise 250 basis points (pretty much baked in at this late stage). Eventually the markets will stabilize and contango sets in again. This time is just an opportunity to add negs cautiously.
Did you just call me a master trader? I certainly never said that about myself, but if that's what you think... really, i just try to play the odds, without making too many short term predictions.
don't know what you're talking about really... oh i get it, you think i should have covered at 50c. Well, i might still do that. Time is on my side.
obviously not ~ Stanley Fischer (FED Vice Chairman) said Saturday "rate hike remains possible in Sept", and the roller coaster is back on.