You need to toss the bones with your left hand and then carefully examine the entrails of a chicken. Otherwise your predictions are worthless.
"3.50? next run"
Well, you have to allow for at least 20% erosion per month. So if the next run is a month after the last one (optimistically) then $2.80 is the new $3.50... get it?
Come back when it's hovering around $1. Last year it got stuck on the $1 mark for a really long time, and it's at times like that TVIX loses less money.
TVIX doesn't "follow" VXX at all. VXX is just another tracking note. They both track S&P VIX futures so they are correlated not causally related.
39 different Yahoo accounts to be precise. I post so often because i want your shares and you're such an easy mark.
I once covered TVIX at 95c then regretted it and re-shorted at the same price. I announced it right on this board. A Stage One noob back then mocked by saying: "Only an idiot could short TVIX at this price."
That was way back in Feb or March 2015, before the last RS ~ so TVIX at 95c was like $9.50.
i seem to recall ndibari saying he bought at about $2.25 this last time around, on the binary Brexit bet... helluva risk to take on a referendum. I actually suggested he should get out on 1st or 2nd day after the vote in one his comment strings. With any luck he he dumped it all above $3. As for bercheck, jwetchy they are amazingly resilient to Stage 3 migration. It would be interesting to draw a blood sample from both subjects and see if there is any sort of marker that could explain it. Or maybe just an IQ test?
You never really need to cover TVIX. I have covered maybe half a dozen times and, every time i covered, it was a mistake. If you want to try to second guess volatility fluctuations, then go ahead and cover-buy-short the worthless note all day long. But, if what you want is a respectable guaranteed return with almost no risk, then short and never cover your position until you are ready to pay the tax man and retire.
Look at the header here: "Daily 2x VIX" The market is loosely related to VIX futures, but TVIX is designed and manipulated by arbitrage traders to track S&P VIX futures accurately. Doesn't really matter if the market is only "Market is up 180 points" because TVIX arbitrage traders are holding it to June/July VIX futures... that all that counts.
Actually, TVIX dropping faster than you might expect... VIX futures are about flat today yet TVIX is down 4%... of course you now have to factor July S&P VIX futures to the equation. Arbitrage traders are frantically dashing their little fingers across the keyboard.
i distinctly remember placing my first short bet at $10 on Grexit Monday. Couldn't even get $4 for Brexit. That's the erosion tango.
Actually Ray, i don't think the Brits are going to "leave" at all. You're right i think in suggesting that the referendum was especially a vote on EU immigration policy after Merkel flooded the union with refugees then tried to pedal back on it. But as far as the UK goes, this referendum is an opportunity to regain control of its sovereign immigration policy while renegotiating what will probably turn out to be a more attractive - maybe even more intimate - economic relationship. Keep in mind immigration and customs are completely different beasts. UK will continue to move goods across the zone ~ trade will not be thwarted. Services are rapidly becoming an immigration non-issue, in any case, since you don't actually have to be in any specific location to sell and/or support software products, including database management. So many SaaS industries are already of Indian origin as you may have noticed. When you start consulting with a developer for your site-search engine these days, you're likely video conferencing with some guy in Delhi. That's just life in the big city these days.
If you want to take that kind of risk, based on market sentiment or investor psych, i think a better bet would be to buy TVIX first day back from the holiday, when SPX volume is low. Shorting TVIX with that 1% is always the best bet however ~ even if you're wrong on the short term, all it takes is an ounce patience to make your money. TVIX will always erodes to nothing in the end... unless of course you're subscribing to an "end of days" thesis. But even in a global economic cataclysm, TVIX longs would lose... it's an unsecured note ~ first thing to get de-listed when the shyte hits the fan.