An IMF report "Greece Preliminary Draft Debt Sustainability Analysis" estimates Greece would have needed another 60B euro over the next three years on top of the 320B already owed, and that “coming on top of the very high existing debt, these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable.” The same IMF analysis suggests Greece would have needed a grace period of 20 years before making any payments at all... now they've got all testy with "democracy", the EC has lost interest in talking to them. Understandably, Euro banks are breathing a sigh of relief they won't have to throw good money after bad anytime soon. In the end, Greeks will have to do business with Europe, in or out of the zone, and any continuing business will be predicated on making payments. The Eurozone comes out ahead.
Greece remains a non issue for America, and a minor annoyance for the Eurozone. Europe gobbled up 48% of Greek exports last year; in contrast Greek imports from Europe were a paltry 48 million euro against a Eurozone GDP worth 14 trillion euro. The only losers today are the Greeks. It won't take the US markets more than a day to figure that out.
Contagion? As the other club med countries watch Greece crumble into economic abyss, following that example is the last thing they'll ever want to do.
It'never really went over $10. We're just about a week off the revers split so, for a day, TVIX bounced past one dollar. You have to try and keep these things in their proper perspective. That said, TVIX over a buck was really a surprise. It didn't last long, but reverse splits tend to have a volatile effect on investor sentiment, which really just means the average retail investor has trouble with math.
Greece is a non issue. China could become a problem. Short term, i'm thinking the US market will shrug off Greece and realize that US employment and other stats actually pretty good, and we'll see TVIX back in eights on monday. Long term? i don't know. It's all about Asia now. In the end, i think Koreans will rule the world. They just won't quit working.
it's a mixed bag, because jobs are actually down in relation to May and participation declined... perfect for the markets because it shows some progress but nowhere near enough to justify a rate hike. One thing for sure, we won't see this trash break a buck again, and 90c is probly a pipe dream too.
i don't know of any brokers that won't "allow" you to short. However, most brokers don't have shares on hand to lend you for most tickers ~ you have to borrow shares from your broker in order to short. Then you buy them when you want to cover, and return them to the broker. You need to ask your broker if he has a "short lending desk" and if he can go out and borrow the "neg" shares for you from another broker. He probably can, because TVIX negs are easy to get. Your broker will charge you 3 or 4 percent per year to hold the negs for you. Once you have the negs attached to your personal account, you can short and cover at will. If you ever change your mind, you just inform your broker so he can liquidate your negs and stop charging you interest. Interest is paid "mark to market" against the daily closing price of the stock.
I think what he meant is "it doesn't matter" as far as the US stock market goes, and he's right... just a hill of beans. Of course it matters to Greece, and the 10-point "austerity" plan the EC published on Sunday, as a PR move "for the information of the Greek people" has some very weird stuff int it, like a 23% goods and services VAT, and a 13% tax on basic food (supermarket) and drinking water. If anybody tried imposing a tax like that on US citizens, you can bet there'd riots in the streets; the revolutionary war happened over less than that, and in 1775 i doubt we had a 26% unemployment rate like they do in Greece today. What do you do if you're one out of four Greek adults who can't get work, and they just raised the price of food and water by 13%? The Greeks have every right to balk at a deal like that, except... well, they don't really have a choice do they? They can have a referendum if they like, but in the end they will have to do business with the Europeans again, sooner rather than later.
believe me bum, i will short the shyte out of this if it climbs back to buck tomorrow, and start accumulating a short position either way... the window is small, so i prolly won't get my $1 wish this week, but you never know. even 90c looks good to me as a entry point now.
if your talking to me ray, i bought on monday and sold on tuesday, and that is the longest position not short i've ever held in TVIX. today i shorted at $9 and covered around $8.80... i'm regretting that now of course. i really thought it would bounce to a buck a couple more times before friday. there will be other ops... long term, it doesn't really matter what price point you initiate a short position with TVIX. You want to max your profit, of course, but you can't really go wrong shorting TVIX as long as you're patient.
Did u actually understand that? i sort of did, i guess, but i think i got confused whenever he switched from a 12-hour clock into military time... that's where he lost me.
they just added 14M shares to the float ~ google this: WPCS Eliminates All $1.7 Million of Unsecured Promissory Notes
yeah.. i was originally thinking TVIX could hold into the referendum (like so many others here), so i didn't load up my negs. later i realized the ref was just anticlimax, but by then TVIX was already down around $9... i'll keep my fingers crossed for a dead cat and maybe initiate a short position north of nine.
sorry rick. i had intended that comment for mike. but now that we're here, i don't see exceptionally especially bad news in the greater context. small countries have often defaulted on IMF debt without causing faraway markets to crash. Brazil's nominal GDP for instance is 30x greater than Greece, and we have far greater exposure to it, but a spate of Brazilian defaults never even nudged our markets. We have virtually zero direct exposure to the Greek economy, and the debt is easy for the ECB to write off (worst case scenario).
Furthermore, to suggest that Italy and Spain will default just because Greece did makes about as much sense as saying Chile will default because of Brazil or, because my neighbor is a swinger i'm joining a soccer club.
Or you could buy AMZN for $435/share... Amazon has debt; almost every company has debt, but amazon has huge operating losses as well (nearly half a $ billion). But Amazon has a good marketing formula that should pay off in the long run.
well, that sounds like a big problem for Greece, a major annoyance for the EC and ECB, with minimal impact on US markets. The Greece pump, i'm afraid, is all tapped out as far as the S&P is concerned. Next stop, Puerto Rico.