I wish you were correct but there is no way in hell that this administration will do anything to help the fossil fuel industry
Its all about the debt, if they can not service it, roll it over or sell assets to cover it - the company is worth Zero. Current valuation is at half time book but the market is telling you that the book value which is based on oil prices at $100 will need to be adjusted. At the end of the day as the Debt matures the creditors will want more collateral to roll it over and the market is telling you that it is not seeing enough collateral on the books.
Yeah if they can buy 1B for 300 - by all means - please do, but they cant because the debt is trading only at 25%-35% discount which means it would take 12-16 years to buy all that debt back with the dividends they aren't paying the shareholder . Time to sell assets, a lot of them.
Not sure where you learned math but at this rate they will need between 12-16 years to buy their debt back, the only problem is their debt is not due in 16 years, its due in 4. They are out of time and money and they will have to start assets immediately, unfortunately at the worst possible time with oil prices at these levels.
Management said and is still saying a lot of things, none of them are relevant as long as they still have $10B in debt and no way to pay it on time. Development takes time and money and in case you haven't noticed, they have run out of both. Why do you think the stock is trading at $4 and why do you think everyone is downgrading them even after this drop in price.
Its all about the debt.
The next stepo for LINE is.....
Asset sales. The 400-500M a year in savings by not paying dividends and cutting interest costs will not pay down $10B in debt any time soon. Much of that debt is due over the next few years, not the next 20 years. Since raising capital through additional debt or equity issuance is not an option the last arrow in the quiver is to sell assets.
The sale of assets may be a double edged sword, on one hand you reduce debt, on the other hand it will force LINE to mark their assets to market which is likely to show the true value of their book. Likely a lot lower than where it is right now as Oil and Natgas prices are down dramatically and expected to stay low for quite sometime.
It would be interesting to get some analysis done by a reputable analyst with a good track record on the value of said assets.
Full disclosure: I am a former LINE & LNCO share holder, sold at 20 and at 16, I currently have no position short or long but I am still following the company. It has been an expensive lesson, one that I can hopefully learn from. Less
SDRL Was never at 3 dollars and didn't triple after their dividend cut, they are now trading at 0.5 book, and as of this morning so does LINE.
One would ask - why is the company trading at half of their book value and the answer is simple, the debt burden of both these companies is too large compared to their assets that are still valued as if OIL was at $100 a barrel. If Oil prices stay where they are right now, LINE and SDRL will have to take an impairment on their assets value.
Because it is still on my screen, and I was wondering why it declined so much today
I lost a lot of money on LINE and LNCO but I wasn't dumb enough to put 75% of my retirement portfolio into one stock. I am currently out of the stock, sold at 16 and I have no plans of getting back in at any price, I lost all faith in the management team, their track record even before the decline in oil prices speaks for itself.