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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

elmojitogatico 11 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 21, 2014 12:29 PM Member since: Nov 13, 2009
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  • Reply to

    DAL stock price

    by chrisn22001 Dec 17, 2014 12:04 PM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Dec 21, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    it owns a oil refinery, Monroe Energy LLC.

  • Reply to

    PCLN ready to jump

    by tishmaba Nov 26, 2014 12:33 AM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Dec 16, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    pcln is a cash cow, the US dollar has reversed course as oil continues to plummet putting deflationary worries on the FED's plate. Probably the FED will be sidelined longer than expected by Wall street. GS expectations about pcln performance while on its preferred list never manifest itself neither will the translation problems they are now worried about,. The EU gas bill is about to go down big time this as oil will stray cheap for some time promoting more travel in the EU. a positive for pcln.

  • Reply to

    The greater fool theory

    by elmojitogatico Dec 8, 2014 10:17 PM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Dec 9, 2014 3:57 AM Flag

    Yes, very true and TSLA is just one of the poster children for the greater fool theory.

    Even if the technology passes the muster, questions remain; lack of sales, delays, recalls overseas, competition, changing technology, all ignored. You can be sure the forecasters are no fools and are quietly reducing their exposure.

    The incentive for buying TSLA is it's future potential, which could at any time change. The Tail Risk was ignored as the stock went bullishly upwards.

    TSLA VaR (Value at Risk) looks to be the work of a wizard with his magic wand.

  • elmojitogatico by elmojitogatico Dec 8, 2014 10:17 PM Flag

    The greater fool theory states that the price of an object is determined, not by its intrinsic value, but rather by an irrational belief. That irrational belief is the fact that another party is willing to pay an even higher price, the "greater fool.”

    This occurs on the way up as more and more “great fools” drive up the stock. This transpires as long as the expectation remains that prices will always rise.

    During long periods of rising prices, buyers are conditioned into become “greater fools” thus underestimating the risk factor. TSLA, fits nicely into the “greater fool theory” as many continue to make unquestionable investments, under the assumption there are "greater fools" still around. The problem? When people are no longer fooled and believe that the stock is not worth the price a prolong declined ensues with few if any rallies, as no “greater fools” can be found.

  • There are ~12 million millionaires currently living on the plane.~32,500 TSLA have been sold as of 2013, that’s, 00.27 % of the total millionaires on the plant.

    The analyses argue that the decline in fuel does not affect the rich folks decision to buy a TSLA.

    The millionaires are not exactly busting the doors down to pick up a TSLA, not even close to 1% of the total millionaires on the planet. Why are they not buying ?

  • elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Dec 2, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    read, Other fallout of the oil crush:

  • elmojitogatico by elmojitogatico Dec 2, 2014 5:51 PM Flag

    The problem with the 73 U.S. shale oil drillers are their loan covenants with the banks.

    Many companies, have debt as a percentage of total assets ranging from 30 % to 90%+.

    Many loans made were on inflated oil prices.

    Other fallout of the oil crush:

    Sales of Toyota’s TM, +1.30% Prius tumbled 13.5% in November, while sales of Ford’s C-Max fell 19.1%.

    TSLA does not report monthly sales but if sales are declining with the big auto sellers E-cars then accept the same with problem with TSLA.

    PS: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is hiring... a farmer?

  • Reply to

    Norway Recall, Now Germany Recalls

    by robskydives Nov 24, 2014 10:00 AM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Nov 24, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    cockroach theory

  • Reply to

    Enron

    by elmojitogatico Nov 23, 2014 1:21 PM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Nov 23, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    Plausible deniability is defined as, suppressing information in order to avoid legal entanglement and done by willfully being ignorant of actions so one can deny knowledge of and/or responsibility for damnable actions taken by subordinates. Lack of evidence ostensibly makes this type of denial plausible, credible. Then, Execs shift the blame in order to avoid any blow-back from some failed strategy. This as the preponderance of the evidence becomes obvious and Execs usually resort to Aesopian language, vagueness.

  • Reply to

    $2.85 ===== and dropping

    by kbodie77777 Nov 23, 2014 2:30 PM
    elmojitogatico elmojitogatico Nov 23, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    Oil, 33/bbl, this as E cars start to go the way of the Photoelectric what never heard of it ? AKA Solar panels, example, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), 2008 high , 317, 2012 low 12, current 49. I guess using that logic TSLA can still goto 300 of course Oil is not a 110/bbl anymore either. Hi Abel...gg1, thanks for the info, grandpa.

  • elmojitogatico by elmojitogatico Nov 23, 2014 1:21 PM Flag

    Enron had numerous accounts, which allowed it to transfer liability so that it would not appear in its accounts and maintain a robust stock price. It had a aggressive marketing strategy which promoted its stock price. It was named, America's Most Innovative Company by Fortune for six consecutive years. There are some frauds so well conducted, that it would be stupidity not to be deceived by them. Use common sense, a good policy is not to ignore valid cautionary accounting warnings.

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