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BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust Message Board

emaila01 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 19, 2014 11:29 AM Member since: Jun 24, 2008
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  • Reply to

    two new presentations

    by chegerar Sep 18, 2014 6:01 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Sep 19, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    with all due respect, when is a company's CEO ever bearish?

  • Reply to

    time to exit

    by sgthoov Aug 26, 2014 9:32 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Aug 26, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Thanks for the article, it was well worth reading. While it did not make for a rosy outlook for this sector with increasing competition, I am not sure this qualifies as a "strong sell" endorsement, either. However, obviously, someone else agrees with your assessment and is dumping.

  • Reply to

    time to exit

    by sgthoov Aug 26, 2014 9:32 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Aug 26, 2014 12:22 PM Flag

    Do you have a link to the "threat of additional uan plants"?

  • Reply to

    Thoughts on the Future of SPPR

    by richardad1517 Aug 16, 2014 12:46 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Aug 17, 2014 12:23 AM Flag

    Option 1 is probably not going to happen now that it appears FCF is in excess of what is being accrued by the preferred dividends on an annualized basis.

    Option 2 I believe is the most logical for RES, but requires a great deal of money to deal with the preferreds and a plan to restructure/layoff management.

    Option 3 is plausible, but RES has over $30 million of dead money with Supertel, so waiting on Supertel to dispose, refinance debt, and improve their balance sheet would take an extremely long amount of time for them to begin to get paid again.

    I find it interesting that Supertel paid off debt so aggressively in 2Q when they could have kept more cash on the balance sheet to reinstate the preferred dividends. Obviously, the Argentines are steering this company any direction they want. Just as Kelly Walters said in his remarks, Supertel doesn't have the scale to be successful with present management, which makes it an eventual consolidation play for RES.

  • Reply to

    Loan extended to Jun 2015

    by marcpark Aug 4, 2014 11:56 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Aug 4, 2014 12:11 PM Flag

    This is some form of confirmation that their hotels are performing better. The perceived riskiness of their portfolio has declined as their properties have most likely strengthened in 2Q, IMO. However, a lot of this has been priced in, but default risk is probably not a threat any longer. If they can secure a lower interest rate with GE at the end of this year then they will have a lot of the heavy lifting done towards lowering their WACC with leaving the preferreds as the gorilla in the room.

  • emaila01 emaila01 Jul 21, 2014 12:55 PM Flag

    earnings are probably going to improve this quarter (2Q) and much more for 3Q and 4Q. Also, once they reinstall the preferred dividend then I believe the common stock goes to $3/share. The fact that Supertel did a capital raise before bringing the preferred dividend current was just to lower RES' warrant price, not to raise capital as it did very little in that regard. At this point, anyone wishing to sell should do it after 2Q earnings.

    I own no common equity; long preferreds.

  • Reply to

    Cash Position

    by emaila01 Jul 15, 2014 3:15 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 16, 2014 9:38 AM Flag

    RES can't sell, they own too much of it. Also, they know to them this company is worth more with the reasons I discussed concerning taking it private at some point.

  • Reply to

    Cash Position

    by emaila01 Jul 15, 2014 3:15 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 16, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    I am referring to the "Insider Transactions" page with the $3.5 million in purchased shares by RES. It totals $3.5 million, which is in excess of their converted loan amount of $1.8 million, which is why I am assuming the difference ($1.7 million) is additional paid in capital.

  • emaila01 by emaila01 Jul 15, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Can anyone reconcile the cash position for 2Q? The press release said they raised $2.7 million in their capital raise, but I see that RES has filed for having purchased $3.5 million. The understanding was that they were going to convert $1.86 million of debt, which should make the balance a cash infusion. My question is: how much of the report $2.7 million from the equity raise accounts for the additional RES money if at all?

    Also, I noticed that Supertel pulled some properties from their "Properties for Sale" page, which either means they were sold or they were reclassified as operating hotels, and are doing better. Either way, it should be good for the preferreds and a likely reinstating of the preferred dividend.

  • Reply to

    Why would RES take SPPR private at this moment?

    by jjpcat Jul 5, 2014 8:39 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 7, 2014 12:24 PM Flag

    If I am not mistaken, RES is going to have to produce a filing for any stock sale, which means, assuming they are selling stock in the current environment, a filing should be within the next 24-48 hours. Otherwise, there is no SlowPO, and RES' position remains in tact until they do take this company private, which I believe will happen. If not, then their equity position is dead money along with their preferreds, and they are clearly not walking away from Supertel given $3.5 in common equity purchased. I expect they will take this company private by the end of the year if not end of summer before the GW loan matures. Without the corporate overhead, this SPPR is worth $3/share to them, and with a lower WACC by redeeming preferreds, much more.

  • Reply to

    750,000 shares traded

    by spoonie_l Jul 3, 2014 11:08 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 3, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    it looks like the preferreds moved up as much as the commons, which adds credence to my point of the preferreds being the real area of value, at this point.

  • Reply to

    750,000 shares traded

    by spoonie_l Jul 3, 2014 11:08 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 3, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    i believe those were shares awarded for his time as a director. I think the timing of this activity and the filing of only a 60 day extension on the credit line with Great Western Bank points to the sale of the company. The Argentines, probably, are working on recapitalizing the company upon taking it private and this was just one of those steps. Regardless, I don't think the company is worth much more to them than the current market price, which makes the preferreds probably very attractive still.

  • Reply to

    750,000 shares traded

    by spoonie_l Jul 3, 2014 11:08 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 3, 2014 12:30 PM Flag

    The price is already coming back down. Looks like it might retrace a large portion of this move and be another aberration like we saw earlier in the year.

  • Reply to

    750,000 shares traded

    by spoonie_l Jul 3, 2014 11:08 AM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jul 3, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    I remember seeing this once before it and the price drifted back down over time. I am not sure what this is supposed to mean for regular shareholders.

  • Reply to

    Asset Sales

    by emaila01 Jun 12, 2014 6:24 PM
    emaila01 emaila01 Jun 25, 2014 5:48 PM Flag

    Just glancing at Supertel's website, it appears that at least one of their hotels listed as for sale has been sold. Since they're not paying their preferred dividends, they should have a significant cash balance when they report 2Q's earnings.

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