This quarter's results totally demolished my number. Considering the changes they made YOY in their portfolio, I find it next to impossible to get a baseline for comparison, but $1.6M in EBITDA versus my forecast of $1.12. I still have to go through the rest of the report, but this was a huge beat, in my opinion.
I am not done with picking through the 10-K, but these results slightly beat my expectations. The only thing that I did not care much for was the increased capital spending, but their annualized $3.4 million was not particularly high. Given that the CEO said the driving factors were improved weather conditions, and we did not have a repeat of the polar vortex so this past winter (Jan to present), for I am upping my Q1 forecast EBITDA to $1.12 million, which would be a 313% increase over last year. At the present speed their going, and assuming they can refinance the Middle Patent Capital (previously Trevian Capital) loan, they should be enough AFFO to reinstate the preferred dividend, but perhaps not bring it entirely current. I expect a spring rally if not sooner with the preferred shares.
Do you really believe that a guy of this caliber would sign a contract with Supertel if the Argentines did not at least promise to get more capital to this company and bring current the preferred dividends?