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MCG Capital Corporation Message Board

emanuilshvarts 18 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 16, 2014 2:41 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • Reply to

    Will BX make New Low after earning BX. 29.20

    by carolyn_novice Oct 14, 2014 3:04 PM emanuilshvarts Oct 16, 2014 2:41 AM Flag

    Unfortunately, you may be correct; BX reacts unpredictably this year (unpredictably TO ME)
    I am long BX and don't understand why (with P/E=10 and many positive catalysts) it is going down. Even when treasury rates are down!!
    Still, I hope that fundamentals will win and we will see tomorrow $30. Or maybe even $31 - a long deserved surprise.
    Do not forget, BX was rated BUY by almost all analysts when it was $32 in recent past.
    Good Luck to everybody!

  • by emanuilshvarts Sep 19, 2014 2:42 PM Flag

    Overall, I gained because I had some cheap shares ($34) and calls bought few months ago. But all my September-bought shares and calls are loosing for now - and of course it's me who made wrong move. It's not Najarjan or Cramer - it's me, BECAUSE THERE WAS AN OBVIOUS RED FLAG.
    In September the BABA price was roughly known, because it was traded on the secondary market. And of course that price was incorporated in YHOO price and the price was around $38-39 instead of $45 or $50. This is a huge red flag.
    And additionally, it was pretty obvious that big boys will be selling YHOO and buying BABA.
    RESUME: don't go for big money if there is some discrepancy which you don't understand.
    Ironically, now is probably time to buy YHOO. But I will not because I still don't understand why YHOO is so low.

    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Softbank is selling off for now

    by jai_hakim Sep 18, 2014 8:25 PM emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Wrong. In one month YHOO is up 13%, and Softbank 17%. The site does not show any post-hour trading for the bank - maybe it is selling off in Japan, but I doubt it very much. Softbank behaves much more logical than YHOO.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Watch premarket 44+ tomorrow !!!

    by epoch_jay Sep 18, 2014 8:00 PM emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 8:37 PM Flag

    That's close, I believe. A very simple calculations show YHOO at $45 if BABA is at $68 IPO price - not a bad scenario. If IPO will climb to $80 (that's my hope) we'll have $50 - pretty good for me.
    I don't believe those who predicts $100+ for BABA - because actually BABA is a very well established business with all fundamental known, and those professionals can value it pretty correct, with small margin for mistake. They choose $68 to give nice chunk of the cake to underwriters and professionals, who'll get allocation - and that chunk can be $5 or $15, but probably not $50.
    Giod Luck tomorrow! - and later too.

  • Reply to


    by emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 7:26 PM emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    Thanks for the advice, chaolopez - amazingly you have guts to short YHOO !!! - very brave. It'll be better I feel to short it tomorrow.
    Good Luck

  • Reply to

    Coldone's army attacks!

    by coldonewon Sep 18, 2014 11:02 AM emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 7:35 PM Flag

    You probably mean not first thing in the morning, but ONLY after BABA will start (which will be minimum one hour later, probably more)?
    Good Luck!~ I'm loaded.

  • by emanuilshvarts Sep 18, 2014 7:26 PM Flag

    Hello, Gurus:
    I am long YHOO with shares bought in the range $34.25 - $42.24; have some October calls too ($40 and few $45).
    Assuming YHOO will pop tomorrow, I am planning to sell almost everything.
    Any thoughts?
    Thank you - and Good Luck

  • Reply to

    $47 or $48 ?

    by skimer99 Sep 17, 2014 9:59 AM emanuilshvarts Sep 17, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    I don't have good explanation why it's $42. According very simple calculations, if BABA will trade flat on Friday in its range ($68-$70), YHOO should be around $46 now, plus-minus $1.
    I have some doubts too, but I am well loaded with shares and options. Let us see!
    Good Luck this coming Friday!

  • emanuilshvarts Sep 17, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    Like your idea, baby (although not sure tomorrow will go down).
    Maybe you can explain why YHOO is around $42 when very simple calculation shows price $45-46 at Alibaba range, and much more if BABA will pop first few days.
    That's the part I don't understand. Market is stupid or I am wrong or both? I am long YHOO shares, October $40 and $45 calls. Signed up for BABA - but will get zero allocation for sure.

    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • emanuilshvarts Sep 17, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Very wrong!
    When people will buy BABA and push it higher, they will push YHOO too.
    You should realize, that from YHOO share price almost two-third is COST OF BABA shares. The cost of company itself is around $12-$14, and even if this cost will drop 5-10% it's not a big deal.
    A am long YHOO and October $40,$45 calls.
    I agree that after BABA IPO the shares of YHOO should be sold rather quick, in a few weeks - unless you research YHOO and BABA deep.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • by emanuilshvarts Sep 16, 2014 3:40 PM Flag

    I agree, situation with OREX looks suspicious.
    But yesterday CEO bought 50,000 shares on market (they were not granted, he paid market price), and VP also bought 5,000 shares.
    Let assume they know what they are doing. And additionally it looks like Risk/Reward ratio isn't bad.
    I bought some shares - GOOD LUCK to you (and to me too)!

  • by emanuilshvarts Sep 12, 2014 5:21 PM Flag

    The new approved drug is referred as developed by OREX and TAKEDA - with TAKEDA being much bigger company, like 40 times by market capitalization.
    Does anybody know how they are related and what implications it has?

    Thank you - and Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    what is the actual dividend yield?

    by uptick_long Sep 5, 2014 3:51 PM emanuilshvarts Sep 6, 2014 3:33 PM Flag

    Yes, quarterly dividend is variable - but you can expect something above $0.50 next quarter. The yield shown by SCHWAB is 5.2%, by YAHOO - 6.7%.
    Note that - compare to their peers - BX has better yield and dropped less in last months. Looks like good time to buy. I am loaded well with shares and - even more - September and December options.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    PE Sector

    by rationalthought3 Sep 4, 2014 10:31 AM emanuilshvarts Sep 4, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    Note that BX is doing better than its peers (or maybe most of them) and paying nice dividend. Not sure CEO is bad - not that the whole PE sector is down.
    Good Luck to everybody!

  • Reply to


    by jim_fredericksburg Sep 3, 2014 11:10 AM emanuilshvarts Sep 4, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Yes, current scores are good. But (if my checking is correct) recently the companies are not in rush to comment on BX; there is only one recent change in August, and it is Downgrade to neutral.
    In last 6 months it was dead money while the market advanced.
    Absolutely the same story with other PE pears - I checked KKR and CG, and they doing last 6-12 months even worth noticeably.
    I am long BX in stock and in options and follow it many years.I was buying BX options until recently - have protected shares, september and december call spreads, december Risk Reversals. And I am a bit worried - maybe macro-events are so negative that even such a good PE company as BX cannot fight them:
    - First, it is rising interest rates.
    - And second, rising markets in US, Europe, Asia make difficult to find new profitable deals.
    Good Luck to everybody!

  • emanuilshvarts Aug 20, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    I am well loaded with BX and options: in addition to shares, I have:
    - September Risk Reversals (combo of bought $34 calls and sold $31 puts)
    - December $33 Risk Reversals
    - December $33 calls.
    I hope - and I believe - BX will perform well. They have some - I believe minor - negative news with court decisions and with SEAS investment leftovers - but mostly the development is positive.
    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    nice pop but why

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 19, 2014 10:13 AM emanuilshvarts Aug 20, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    SYF is - roughly speaking - credit card company, same as VISA for example, just seven times smaller. And it's pretty old credit card issuer, so all fundamentals were well known to the professionals (like P/E, growth etc.).
    During the IPO, SYF was offered at roughly 20% discount to the peers.
    This is why it's up, in my opinion.
    So, I do not expect big jumps during first quarterly report, and I believe fare share price is around $26-27. And after the first report it will start it's own new life.
    I am planning to sell - probably - when and if price will reach $27.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • by emanuilshvarts Aug 13, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Hurry up! Somebody bought yesterday 20,000 those $27 calls for $0.20 apiece. You can buy then now even for $0.18.
    I think it's too optimistic, but buying $25 CALL or $25/$27 spread may pay you . Or, if you like less risk, $25/$26 calls.
    Will see in a few hours.
    Good Luck!

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