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MCG Capital Corporation Message Board

emanuilshvarts 14 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 22, 2015 11:26 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • Reply to

    ONE MORE CALCULATION ATTEMPT

    by emanuilshvarts Jul 21, 2015 7:56 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jul 22, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Cantor Fitzgerald (not sure about spelling) today raised target from $60 to $62 - based on three factors:
    - bullish outlook for BABA
    - bullish outlook on Yahoo japan
    - improved core business and buyback.
    This adds some support for my childish calculations (above), based on real today pricing of BABA and YHOOJ.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Jul 21, 2015 7:56 PM Flag

    1. At current market prices, Yahoo owns 31.4B in BABA and 7.9B in YahooJapan, total 39.3B - which gives $41.9 per share
    2. Cash pile 6.9B adds $7.3 per share
    3. And core business, assuming very low P/E = 8, creates additional value $6.2 per share.
    Totally, with tax-free spinning of BABA and YJ, we have YHOO price $55.40.
    I believe (although not sure) that real spin-off will carry some taxes, not 0% and not 40% but something in-between, compromise value between YHOO and IRS. My guess that it will be around 10% from the p.1 above, which reduces calculated share price to $51.2.
    I have BUY rating on YHOO.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Jul 13, 2015 8:15 PM Flag

    I bought GJH about one year ago, and since then bought more. It's not easy today to find reliable Preferred shares with yield around 6.5%.
    They have low BB rating from S&P - but parent company USM is recently doing relatively well, so preferred shares should be safe.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    dividend

    by kmx_swing Jul 1, 2015 4:15 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jul 1, 2015 11:11 AM Flag

    You are correct, there is no dividend on my account. They - according to the web - paid it last week (NM on Friday, NNA on Thursday).
    It can be connected with Greece - although it's a multinational company based in Monaco officially, it is still Greek (by names of all executives as minimum).
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Is DB exposed to Greece debt?

    by ex.goldbug Jun 27, 2015 9:54 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jun 28, 2015 11:47 AM Flag

    Goldbug,
    See my post a few min ago with detailed answer.
    Good Luck!

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Jun 28, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    According to The Guardian (which is I hope pretty reliable source), BX has pretty low exposure: e400M, or approximately 1% of assets. Here is the link:
    http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jun/17/greece-debt-crisis-bank-exposed

    According to them, there are some banks with huge two-digit exposures; these are mostly in Greece, but also some in England, in Germany, in Spain.

    I am long DB (although it's a tiny portion of portfolio). I expect DB will be down Mon-Tue by itself, and also together with Germany. But I will probably hold my shares; they should rebound.
    Note: I protected my shares from weak euro with EUO; it should be reconsidered probably because after Grexit euro will go stronger. Not sure about it.

    Good Luck to you - and to Greece people too.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jun 25, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    I have GOOG shares and options (unfortunately). I remember - not very clear - that during the split, company announced that they will somehow made GOOG and GOOGL very close by value. Maybe they will issue a special dividend or something like this?
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts May 21, 2015 1:39 PM Flag

    Didn't get you. Open interest for $37 June calls is around 33,000, and I do not think these numbers can be easily manipulated by villains.
    From the other side - I noticed that Puts outnumber the calls, so the main market feeling is DOWN for TWTR. That's a pity, because I am long.

    Good Luck!

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts May 21, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    It's clear to me that TWTR has now UNSTABLE position on the market. Rather soon it SHOULD go strongly down, below $30 (according to its P/E, EBITRA etc), or strongly up (according to its social media position and growth expectations).
    With huge number of messaging sites today, no one of them is irreplaceable, and down scenario is possible. Nobody can know for sure, but I am on the LONG side and believe that in no more than one month the case will be resolved and TWTR up back to $45-50 minimum.

    Good Luck to longs!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I repeat $38 eod. (EOM)

    by wallstreet_pd May 20, 2015 11:54 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts May 20, 2015 11:59 AM Flag

    It's actually possible - although highly sp[eculative. They have a presentation for analysts at 12.00 - in a few minutes if I am not mistaken about time zone - and the presentation can move stock a lot in any direction.
    Good Luck to longs!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts May 20, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Hello, Gurus:
    Can you explain why the TWTR-GOOGL deal did not affect TWTR shares at all? It sounds like a big thing.
    Thanks, and Good Luck to all longs!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    YHOO PRICE CALCULATIONS

    by emanuilshvarts May 14, 2015 2:00 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts May 15, 2015 10:26 AM Flag

    Thanks you, this is correct observation for sure. But in this case - as in any secondary offerings - the premium will be small - maybe just a couple of percent - so it will decrease calculated price below $1.

  • Reply to

    YHOO PRICE CALCULATIONS

    by emanuilshvarts May 14, 2015 2:00 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts May 14, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Thanks, LUTTS! So, with its current price, BABA part will be $29. And you are a bit generous with core value: YHOO is out of favor, and with optimistic P/E 10 you'll get $8B.
    It brings us to the current calculated price $54B/0.937B = $57.5.
    So, why is YHOO so cheap? Even if core is zero, the price looks like $47.
    Should I sell all other shares, my pants (except one pair) and condo and buy YHOO?
    Something is fishy here.

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts May 14, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Dear Gurus:
    Before and during BABA IPO, there was many price calculations for YHOO based on future BABA price etc.
    Can you please provide current - post-IPO - calculations based on their core value and all assets (including BABA and YHOO Japan)? It should be simple for those who understand and can analyze company balance sheet.
    I did it myself, and got very low value well below $40 - but I do not understand many things in their balance sheet, so it's probably absolutely wrong.
    Thank you, and Good Luck to everybody!

MCGC
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