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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

emanuilshvarts 157 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 17, 2015 3:05 PM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Feb 17, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Got 300 shares in IPO. It looks like these two days market makers artificially support $14 minimum; and without the support it will go down.
    To say truth, I know very little about company - just had (and have) some POSITIVE experience with IPOs, and try roulette with this one.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    Pullback

    by arbitragem Feb 6, 2015 11:18 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 17, 2015 2:01 PM Flag

    By the way, today is BX payday. You should celebrate these extra money with a beer or glass of wine - whatever you prefer.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pullback

    by arbitragem Feb 6, 2015 11:18 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 17, 2015 1:52 PM Flag

    It looks like we are trading BX pretty identically. I also held a lot of BX through those difficult times - and now we are rewarded!
    But situation now is a bit different. Look at FSL - it skyrocketed recently, and BX has almost $7.5B in this company. It's more than 30% of the whole Blackstone market cap of $22B! Look at Hilton HLN - another big holding.
    That's why I think that there is no return to $33 price and maybe even $36 (???), and that's why I am waiting for $36 and not something below. It can be a mistake, of course.
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Pullback

    by arbitragem Feb 6, 2015 11:18 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 17, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    No way it will go to 33-34 next 2-3 months, IMO. Look at their holdings!!! - they are BIG part of share price, and they are up-up-up. As I noted before, I set my alarm to $36; not even sure it will go to 35.

  • Reply to

    Pullback

    by arbitragem Feb 6, 2015 11:18 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 16, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    You may be correct. In the past, BX price was often going down without strong reasons and even (it looks like) without ANY reason.
    I am loaded with stock and its options, and afraid to buy more at these levels; set alarm at $36 which is close to your limit.
    I also protected some shares on $37 level - which may be low, but gives peace in mind. We may be wrong too - if BX price will be logical this time...
    Do not forget also that rising interest rate (this year or 2016) is bad thing for PE stocks.
    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Typical IPO story

    by cosmosisinfinity Feb 12, 2015 3:23 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 12, 2015 5:54 PM Flag

    Hope you are correct. Note that INOV - as any new to market company - does not have options yet, no any calls.
    There is a simple - but not very helpful - rule. If a regular investor got some allocation - it's a lemon with 80-90% probability. And I got 100 shares.
    Good Luck to everybody!

  • Reply to

    about the company..

    by ositopeculiar Feb 12, 2015 2:36 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Feb 12, 2015 5:47 PM Flag

    Good thinking, herbie !

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Feb 3, 2015 5:36 PM Flag

    Today I made a bit unusual Call play on DIS, for march expiration:
    - bought four $92.5 C in the money
    - sold four $95 C and four $97.5 C
    All combo did cost me 37c x 4. I'd prefer to do it for FEBRUARY - but it would be more expensive.
    Now, if DIS will be above $92.87 but below $99.63 - I win (maximum win is $2.13 x 4 if DIS is in $95-$97.5 range)
    This combo can be named "unprotected condor". Never used it before. It's not a big money and possible risk, just did it for some extra experience.

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 29, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    With all the respect - I don't agree here. BX is has 69% of institutional holders (mutual funds etc.), and media reaction is not the major thing.
    BX is doing very well (from $31 to $36 in a year), beating the strong bull market. PE firms have two "global" headwinds:
    - good deals aren't as abundant as in two last years
    - rising (eventually, maybe even this year) interest rates is a negative factor for PE.

    I believe $36+ is good price, after the very good report. Buying new shares is a bit risky today - but I will hold all my shares. They are protected by $36 and $37 March calls.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Predictions for tomorrow?

    by sheamanski Jan 28, 2015 12:43 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 29, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    Inside (or very close to) $36 - $38 range. Their business is pretty visible, it's not a bio-chemical "dark horse". And a smart professional investor, who analyses BX eight hours per day five days a week, can always predict the results - the mistake will be less than 10%.
    Last four quarterly results had surprise (in cents) 53c, 15c, 34c, and -5c. And even after very strong results, BX shares were not jumping on 50% or 30% or even 10% - as you suggested.http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BX
    I am sure about it - except some leaked extraordinary announcement like acquisition etc. - which is unlikely.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    wow...look at this great news for BX

    by sam_0534 Jan 28, 2015 12:01 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 28, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Hello, Sam:
    Do you know what portion of HLT-FSL-BRX they actually hold (for example, 50% of HLT, 25%...) - in percentage, to in numbers of shares?
    Thank you - and Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    LOAD UP AHEAD OF BLOWOUT ERNS!!

    by monett4 Jan 26, 2015 12:04 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 27, 2015 12:12 AM Flag

    Expected earnings are constantly, every day or almost everyday, increasing: $0.68 then $0.81, and now $0.93 (according to Schwab). I do not know why gurus-reviewers are increasing it so fast, but that's why BX is rising every day.
    I am not sure BX will fall on Thursday, but it's a possibility. I protected most of my shares with $37 June calls; some other shares and calls were protected by $35 and $36 March calls, so I feel pretty secure.
    I am long time with BX and it rewarded me nice - but this time is something exceptional - thanks, Blackstone!
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Question about Dividend and options

    by russellcaseart Jan 23, 2015 4:16 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 26, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Note that (during last 3 years as minimum) BX never had a special dividend, so the discussion about special dividend is rather theoretical than practical.
    From the other side, regular dividend very often reduces (temporarily or not) share price and correspondingly option price. The reduction size depends on dividend percentage.

    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    hit a year high

    by mj525252 Jan 23, 2015 1:23 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 23, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    Correction; it is ALL TIME HIGH

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 22, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    I am long BX for a few years. Last year, the news and fundamentals were GREAT - but the stock movement was rather mediocre or barely acceptable for the bull.
    These last two days, a very unexpected to me jump over 1-y high, over 5-y high and over all-time high (BX IPO was in 2007 and IPO price was $31, but it traded first moments higher up to $35 and NEVER even touched that price again).
    I don't know exact reason - the Europe is good news, but BX price disregarded in the past much more important news. We can speculate about some new energy or real-estate plays, but...
    I DO NOT expect big jump on results. I will not sell my shares, but I may protect them by selling close-to-money calls - I do it pretty often, it's a method to gain on not-rising or slow-rising stocks.
    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    BX COMING DIVIDEND

    by emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 2:50 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Thanks!-and good luck!

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    I couldn't find exact ex-dividend day for BX - it's somewhere close to Jan 23.
    Can somebody help, please?
    I am long BX, BX calls and bullish call spreads.
    Good Luck!

  • emanuilshvarts@att.net by emanuilshvarts Jan 8, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    I am long GNVC (only 1000 shares, bought long time ago for $3.15 and was in red always), and happy to be green now.
    Can somebody give info or link to FINANCIAL side of the story? I could not find main thing - what are exactly relations between huge NOVARTIS and tiny Genwec?
    Unfortunately, it's not a quick story. First, 45 patients will be treated with the results expected in 2017 - but probably will be some smaller milestones in-between.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    News?

    by newandadd2 Jan 5, 2015 10:40 AM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Jan 6, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    There is no news. All the material sector is hit very hard.
    You may want to compare ATI with US Steel (index X) - that one was hit today too, and its performance last weeks and months is even worse.
    I was planning to sell my ATI - but will probably postpone it. It should recover - but, I am afraid, it will be a long way, many months. Not sure.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    $6.80 PPS

    by maxpetar Dec 19, 2014 2:38 PM
    emanuilshvarts@att.net emanuilshvarts Dec 19, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    Why do you think so - please give some info or thoughts. This is a penny-thing, going rather down, so...
    Good Luck anyway!

BX
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