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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

emanuilshvarts 13 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 11:15 AM Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • emanuilshvarts Jan 29, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    With all the respect - I don't agree here. BX is has 69% of institutional holders (mutual funds etc.), and media reaction is not the major thing.
    BX is doing very well (from $31 to $36 in a year), beating the strong bull market. PE firms have two "global" headwinds:
    - good deals aren't as abundant as in two last years
    - rising (eventually, maybe even this year) interest rates is a negative factor for PE.

    I believe $36+ is good price, after the very good report. Buying new shares is a bit risky today - but I will hold all my shares. They are protected by $36 and $37 March calls.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Predictions for tomorrow?

    by sheamanski Jan 28, 2015 12:43 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 29, 2015 12:26 AM Flag

    Inside (or very close to) $36 - $38 range. Their business is pretty visible, it's not a bio-chemical "dark horse". And a smart professional investor, who analyses BX eight hours per day five days a week, can always predict the results - the mistake will be less than 10%.
    Last four quarterly results had surprise (in cents) 53c, 15c, 34c, and -5c. And even after very strong results, BX shares were not jumping on 50% or 30% or even 10% - as you suggested.
    I am sure about it - except some leaked extraordinary announcement like acquisition etc. - which is unlikely.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    wow...look at this great news for BX

    by sam_0534 Jan 28, 2015 12:01 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 28, 2015 1:38 PM Flag

    Hello, Sam:
    Do you know what portion of HLT-FSL-BRX they actually hold (for example, 50% of HLT, 25%...) - in percentage, to in numbers of shares?
    Thank you - and Good Luck!

  • Reply to


    by monett4 Jan 26, 2015 12:04 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 27, 2015 12:12 AM Flag

    Expected earnings are constantly, every day or almost everyday, increasing: $0.68 then $0.81, and now $0.93 (according to Schwab). I do not know why gurus-reviewers are increasing it so fast, but that's why BX is rising every day.
    I am not sure BX will fall on Thursday, but it's a possibility. I protected most of my shares with $37 June calls; some other shares and calls were protected by $35 and $36 March calls, so I feel pretty secure.
    I am long time with BX and it rewarded me nice - but this time is something exceptional - thanks, Blackstone!
    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Question about Dividend and options

    by russellcaseart Jan 23, 2015 4:16 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 26, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Note that (during last 3 years as minimum) BX never had a special dividend, so the discussion about special dividend is rather theoretical than practical.
    From the other side, regular dividend very often reduces (temporarily or not) share price and correspondingly option price. The reduction size depends on dividend percentage.

    Good Luck!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    hit a year high

    by mj525252 Jan 23, 2015 1:23 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 23, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    Correction; it is ALL TIME HIGH

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emanuilshvarts Jan 22, 2015 9:07 PM Flag

    I am long BX for a few years. Last year, the news and fundamentals were GREAT - but the stock movement was rather mediocre or barely acceptable for the bull.
    These last two days, a very unexpected to me jump over 1-y high, over 5-y high and over all-time high (BX IPO was in 2007 and IPO price was $31, but it traded first moments higher up to $35 and NEVER even touched that price again).
    I don't know exact reason - the Europe is good news, but BX price disregarded in the past much more important news. We can speculate about some new energy or real-estate plays, but...
    I DO NOT expect big jump on results. I will not sell my shares, but I may protect them by selling close-to-money calls - I do it pretty often, it's a method to gain on not-rising or slow-rising stocks.
    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to


    by emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 2:50 PM emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    Thanks!-and good luck!

  • by emanuilshvarts Jan 21, 2015 2:50 PM Flag

    I couldn't find exact ex-dividend day for BX - it's somewhere close to Jan 23.
    Can somebody help, please?
    I am long BX, BX calls and bullish call spreads.
    Good Luck!

  • by emanuilshvarts Jan 8, 2015 10:23 PM Flag

    I am long GNVC (only 1000 shares, bought long time ago for $3.15 and was in red always), and happy to be green now.
    Can somebody give info or link to FINANCIAL side of the story? I could not find main thing - what are exactly relations between huge NOVARTIS and tiny Genwec?
    Unfortunately, it's not a quick story. First, 45 patients will be treated with the results expected in 2017 - but probably will be some smaller milestones in-between.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to


    by newandadd2 Jan 5, 2015 10:40 AM emanuilshvarts Jan 6, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    There is no news. All the material sector is hit very hard.
    You may want to compare ATI with US Steel (index X) - that one was hit today too, and its performance last weeks and months is even worse.
    I was planning to sell my ATI - but will probably postpone it. It should recover - but, I am afraid, it will be a long way, many months. Not sure.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    $6.80 PPS

    by maxpetar Dec 19, 2014 2:38 PM emanuilshvarts Dec 19, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    Why do you think so - please give some info or thoughts. This is a penny-thing, going rather down, so...
    Good Luck anyway!

  • Reply to

    Sandler Oneill just braised tp 6$ to 41

    by mj525252 Dec 18, 2014 9:29 AM emanuilshvarts Dec 18, 2014 10:02 AM Flag

    Today upgrade with $41 target, yesterday from Morgan Stanley with $45.
    I am long BX, and unfortunately - although it's doing relatively well - it cannot go out from dead $30-$34 zone. Hope it will happen soon.
    Good Luck!

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