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The Blackstone Group L.P. Message Board

emanuilshvarts 4 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 hours ago Member since: Dec 17, 2011
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  • Reply to


    by dklatt1012 May 22, 2014 12:33 PM emanuilshvarts May 26, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    Your observation looks wrong to me. Yes, last 2 times stock was up - because all that year it was moving up strongly anyway.
    But if you open graph for 5 years, you will see also that stock moves down strongly a few times after that convergence event.
    So - the correlation probably does not exist.
    There are two reasons for BX to rise:
    1- low valuation
    2- recent very positive events

    And there is only one negative reason, which is probably 12+ months away:
    1 - when interest rate will go up, it's not a good environment for Private Equity business.

    Overall, I believe we will go up to $35 minimum in a few months

    Sentiment: Buy

  • by emanuilshvarts Aug 13, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    Hurry up! Somebody bought yesterday 20,000 those $27 calls for $0.20 apiece. You can buy then now even for $0.18.
    I think it's too optimistic, but buying $25 CALL or $25/$27 spread may pay you . Or, if you like less risk, $25/$26 calls.
    Will see in a few hours.
    Good Luck!

  • Reply to

    nice pop but why

    by amaretto_fianchetto Aug 19, 2014 10:13 AM emanuilshvarts 17 hours ago Flag

    SYF is - roughly speaking - credit card company, same as VISA for example, just seven times smaller. And it's pretty old credit card issuer, so all fundamentals were well known to the professionals (like P/E, growth etc.).
    During the IPO, SYF was offered at roughly 20% discount to the peers.
    This is why it's up, in my opinion.
    So, I do not expect big jumps during first quarterly report, and I believe fare share price is around $26-27. And after the first report it will start it's own new life.
    I am planning to sell - probably - when and if price will reach $27.

    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • emanuilshvarts 11 hours ago Flag

    I am well loaded with BX and options: in addition to shares, I have:
    - September Risk Reversals (combo of bought $34 calls and sold $31 puts)
    - December $33 Risk Reversals
    - December $33 calls.
    I hope - and I believe - BX will perform well. They have some - I believe minor - negative news with court decisions and with SEAS investment leftovers - but mostly the development is positive.
    Good Luck to everybody!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

32.88-0.12(-0.36%)Aug 20 4:02 PMEDT

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