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SodaStream International Ltd. (SODA) Message Board

embarrassing1234 267 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 16, 2013 4:28 PM Member since: Feb 18, 2013
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  • Reply to

    Countrywide... from the call

    by embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:14 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:28 PM Flag

    I think it's great news! 1) There's no additional losses due to Countrywide because the money was already accounted for previously. That lifts a black cloud off the stock. 2) Their inventory of delinquent loans should be reduced by around 2,100 more than it would be otherwise. By the end this year, their ending inventory should be just over 100,000... it started the year at 139,856.

  • Reply to

    Countrywide... from the call

    by embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:14 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:17 PM Flag

    Curt S. Culver - Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of Executive Committee, Chairman of Mgic and Chief Executive Officer of Mgic
    Definitely the number of claims payable definitely spike up this quarter. And what we plan to do in our monthly statistics. But I will -- we will give you that specific line item us what, if you will, extraordinary activity was during the month that was associated with the implementation of the agreement. But it absolutely will increase, materially increase during the quarter on a processing basis, paid basis.

  • Reply to

    Countrywide... from the call

    by embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:14 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:16 PM Flag

    Geoffrey M. Dunn - Dowling & Partners Securities, LLC
    Sure. And then with respect to the Countrywide, I think there's, what, 2100 loans associated with that settlement?

    Timothy J. Mattke - Chief Accounting Officer, Senior Vice President and Controller
    From the GSEs.

    Geoffrey M. Dunn - Dowling & Partners Securities, LLC
    Yes, so is that something we should expect -- does your capacity allow for processing of all 2,100 in the fourth quarter, or is that something that's going to be bled in over 3, 4, 5 months?

    Michael J. Zimmerman - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations
    The goal is to try and get them processed in the next -- in November starting in the fourth quarter. And on the loans effective -- the GSE loans process those our goal again this quarter.

    Curt S. Culver - Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of Executive Committee, Chairman of Mgic and Chief Executive Officer of Mgic
    So the lion's share, not all, will be done in the fourth quarter, Geoff.

    Geoffrey M. Dunn - Dowling & Partners Securities, LLC
    So the right way to think about the fourth quarter is kind of maybe a declining run rate off of this quarter's claimants, then it's plus 2,100 loans?

    Michael J. Zimmerman - Senior Vice President of Investor Relations
    Geoff, are you talking about the delinquent inventory or what?

    Geoffrey M. Dunn - Dowling & Partners Securities, LLC
    Yes, basically, I mean, you did about -- just under 8,700 claims this quarter. I'm wondering if we should be thinking that, that's going to spike up 9,500 or higher.

    Curt S. Culver - Executive Chairman, Chief Executive Officer, Chairman of Executive Committee, Chairman of Mgic and Chief Executive Officer of Mgic
    Definitely the number of claims payable definitely spike up this quarter. And what we plan to do in our monthly statistics. But I will -- we will give you that specific line item us what, if you will, extraordinary activity was during the month that was associated with the implementation of the agreem

  • embarrassing1234 by embarrassing1234 Oct 16, 2013 4:14 PM Flag

    "In October, we received consent from the GSEs regarding the previously-executed settlement agreement with Countrywide regarding rescission of coverage on GSE loans. As a result, during the fourth quarter, we will begin to implement the operational components of this agreement. As a reminder, this means that we will process as claims the rescissions on GSE loans that we have been holding. This will impact our operating statistics we publish monthly, but will not impact our incurred losses as we have previously recorded the charge a year ago. The activity associated with the agreement will be broken out when we release our operating statistics each month."

  • embarrassing1234 by embarrassing1234 Oct 14, 2013 10:59 PM Flag

    403.94 is pretty wild. I mean, I think NFLX can continue to grow but can it really grow that much? And at some point, one of the competitors is going to get their act together to take some of the market share (not surpass NFLX but be respectable). Thoughts?

  • embarrassing1234 by embarrassing1234 Oct 14, 2013 10:46 AM Flag

    There's 4 things we know:

    1) Last quarter was profitable
    2) There was more NIW this quarter than last quarter.
    3) There were less paid claims this quarter than last quarter.
    4) Their ending inventory was reduced from last quarter so they shouldn't have any issues with their reserves.

    Seems like a recipe for success to me.

  • Reply to

    I'm confused

    by netprophet2000 Oct 11, 2013 12:06 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 11, 2013 4:19 PM Flag

    Profit = Revenue - Expenses. Record profit doesn't mean as much when it stems from a reduction in both revenue and expenses or unusual items. They had so much profit because they released reserves (the money they put on the side in case of bad loans) but that's not going to happen every quarter. The biggest thing for WFC is always mortgages and they didn't do so well in mortgages this quarter - people worry when their revenue from mortgages doesn't go up. If mortgages don't go up, they won't make as much money.

    The housing market (and in turn, mortgages) are a big concern for most of the big banks as they all provide mortgages.

  • Reply to

    can't keep the lid on this much longer

    by floridahockeyman Oct 11, 2013 12:46 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 11, 2013 3:45 PM Flag

    End of Message. I think at least lol

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The volume alone is exciting

    by embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 10:14 AM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 5:23 PM Flag

    RE: Volume. I understand what you're saying. However, given the sudden rise of the stock, I think much of the selling was profit-taking. After all, GSAT has seen quite the run. Furthermore, I think much of the selling can be attributed to the issues in Washington. I'm not saying the stock is going to $100 next week but I still think the volume is still a very positive sign with paired with the price increase.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Short Squeeze Tomorrow?

    by chrion777 Oct 10, 2013 3:27 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 4:58 PM Flag

    Everything got bought today because of the potential deal in Washington. If you're hanging your hat on the fact that today's volume was good, this stock is in more trouble than I anticipated. It's hard to own a stock didn't have greater than average volume today and that didn't go up today.

    You can disagree with my opinion (I'm certainly not always right) but you can't disagree with the decrease in average volume. The last 2 weeks of September had the second lowest volume of any 2 week period since 10/15/12. That's fact.

    I know you want the stock to go up and believe in it. You should as an investor. But let's not start pretending an average volume of 3,949,775 is greater than an average volume of 6,175,867. If you think 3,9494,775 is greater than 6,175,867 then you have problems.

  • Reply to

    Short Squeeze Tomorrow?

    by chrion777 Oct 10, 2013 3:27 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 4:01 PM Flag

    False. It's not more shorted that it had been previously (as of 9/30/13, the short interest was the second lowest it's been since June) . The days-to-cover ratio only increased to 9.244 because of the substantial decrease in volume (as of 9/30/13, the lowest volume since July and the second lowest volume since at least October 15, 2012). Therefore, not only will there not be a short squeeze any time soon but the lack of volume should be extremely concerning to you as it indicates that nobody wants to buy the stock. All my information came from Nasdaq's website.

    DISCLOSURE: I do not have a position in CTL and do not intend to take a position in the near future. I simply check up on this stock from time to time as I held it for quite a while and sold back in the $37.00's.

  • Reply to

    I'm Ready for a Huge Short Squeeze!

    by sturocks Oct 10, 2013 12:14 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 3:43 PM Flag

    A days-to-cover ratio of over 18 would usually imply a massive short squeeze. However, the ratio is only that high because of a substantial reduction in volume. The ratio should really be around 9 with regular volume (which is still high) but the loss in interest by the market (as shown by the reduction in volume) neutralizes the benefit. This stock could go up but it won't be due to a short squeeze.

    The problem with OLED right now is that Samsung is not included in Q1 and Q3 and it's like people forget that. People hate the stock too much in Q1 and Q3 but love it too much in Q2 and Q4.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 3:27 PM Flag

    If my understanding is correct, I don't think there's any way to tell. Just like there's a variety of options you can buy which expire on different dates, you can short a stock for a bunch of different dates.

    Personally, I view an increase to short interest as a positive - those shorts already sold the stock so their shorting is already built into the current price of the stock. They will need to buy stock later to cover meaning there are guaranteed buyers later on. I was taught that a days-to-cover ratio over 8 means it will be difficult for shorts to cover.

    In this case, I doubt many shorts failed to cover when the stock was below $7.00 because of the gov't shutdown. I mean, how low could they expect to go?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • embarrassing1234 by embarrassing1234 Oct 10, 2013 10:14 AM Flag

    The volume is destroying the 3 month average every day now. Paired with an increase in the price, I think that's a great sign because it shows there's a lot of buyers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • It trades at less than book even though the business is highly profitable. It reinstated the dividend and didn't see an increase in the stock price for it. Between the buyback program and the increasingly strong balance sheet, the price will increase. But will it's soured reputation hold it back until the economy is recovered 5 or so years from now? The price should be much higher. For example, just look at the P/E Ratio: AIG=25.65 but competitor Metlife=93.51. All the major insurers have P/E ratios around 100 except AIG. I realize that AIG's dividend yields about is .8% while Metlife's yields about 2.3% but still... I find this stock frustrating to own.

  • embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 8, 2013 4:13 PM Flag

    This stupid shutdown is giving them every chance to cover at a discount or else it would a killing

  • 1) RDN only reduced their delinquent inventory by .28% whereas MTG reduced their's by 1.53%.
    2) RDN wrote 53% more new insurance (I know they write single premium which is less profitable but it's still more written).

    Any thoughts?

  • Reply to

    NIW $2.5B just announced

    by rick.nagra Oct 8, 2013 7:18 AM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 8, 2013 9:56 AM Flag

    A 13.64% increase in NIW from last September isn't the 25% I was wishing for but certainly very good news. I mean, a company in another industry would kill for a 13% increase YoY. I would like to see a lower ending inventory since I think being under 100,000 is a big mental milestone for people looking to buy but a reduction of 1,741 is still nice progress. Overall, I like the numbers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    My Sept Monthly Projections

    by zekegern Oct 7, 2013 1:00 PM
    embarrassing1234 embarrassing1234 Oct 8, 2013 9:51 AM Flag

    Great projection on the ending inventory. Very close.

  • embarrassing1234 by embarrassing1234 Oct 3, 2013 11:42 AM Flag

    WE'RE GOING TO BE RICH!!!

SODA
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