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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

emclu 15 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 31 minutes ago Member since: Apr 25, 2000
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  • nuts, EXC has been up almost 20% in the last six weeks.As of 3/31 there were almost 40 million shares short. Apparently they think it must be overvalued and may be right. It could be a disaster for the shorts if the 1st quarter earning look good and they give a little boost to the dividend, plus wholesale power prices still look good due to natural gas prices. EXC doesn't appear to be a good short but then again who would have thought it would be up 25% so far this year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Wow Elon Musk bought a ton of shares at about $92. Looks like a couple directors sold early when TSLA was in tme mid $100's last year. Although they made a ton of money.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Glad I held on to this stock.

    by hoppinl Apr 4, 2014 2:42 PM
    emclu emclu Apr 6, 2014 6:29 PM Flag

    Yes I would pick a bank CD with an interest rate of 4% over a dividend stock with 4% too, problem is the best you can find is 1%. If we could only time these stocks right. When EXC was @27 in January Goldman Sachs and the like and articles on seeking alpha were down grading it. Here less then three months later EXC is up over 25% and paid its dividend and the market has been flat. Go figure. When Goldman Sachs upgrades EXC I will be looking to sell.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why the panic?

    by al27pg Mar 10, 2014 10:06 PM
    emclu emclu Mar 11, 2014 5:55 AM Flag

    I am more concerned about their backlog. It seems to be shrinking and they haven't announced any new contracts recently. The Chile one was large but the revenues from that are winding down. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • The posted articles from Financial Times and Seeking Alpha are really shallow. No where is it mentioned that nuclear power is the cheapest way to produce power(excluding hydo) followed by coal and NG. The NG glut in 2009-2013 caused very thin margins. That is over, wholesale power prices have gone up. It should bode well for Nuclear and coal. Wind and solar are way too expensive need massive subsidies just to be built. I suspect the FT article is contrived by shorts and the seeking alpha is just some guy who doesn't fully understand the power industry and hasn't been watching PJM pricing over the last two months or that NG is at $6 mbtus and producers aren't going to open more wells because of the loss they have taken in 2011-13 by over producing. IMHO

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • longer term support at $4.Kind of concerned that there have been no contract announcements for a month. Anyone else concerned?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    so you guys want to buy after this hits $7.50 ?

    by apfappa Feb 13, 2014 7:22 PM
    emclu emclu Feb 14, 2014 7:14 AM Flag

    If this hits $7.50 it probably means it is going much higher in the short term. If it doesn't you don't get caught in a range bound stock. It is not clear if and when this stock will go up. Maybe today who knows. Although with block buster news you may not be able to buy at $7.50. What's the deal with the stock the last couple days closing up in the last few minutes after being negative the whole day.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • EXC nuclear plants have been running full out the first six weeks of the year and power prices have been the best in years because natural gas is rebounding. Plus they have prevented many NG plants from running due to NG constraints in the PJM markets. BTW keep in mind that NG has always been more expensive then coal or nuclear power. The spread inj 2012 & 2013 has hurt exc however the spread in the first six weeks has been extremely large. This won't last but per EIA if the average NG price is at $4.47 this should keep the spread at 2009, 2010 levels and EXC would have a great year. Once first quarter earning are released there should be some upgrades of EXC although I would expect some buying soon just based on the spreads. Plus with these spreads EXC should have the confidence for a small dividend increase on teh one year anniversary of the cut. IMHO good luck to all

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • WHY WIND WON'T WORK
    by Charles S. Opalek, PE

    Everyone believes alternative energies are the answer to all our power problems, with wind power leading the way. The truth is: Wind power is unsustainable and a total waste of resources.

    This the book exposes the utter uselessness of wind power, including how:
    Wind turbines rarely produce their advertised full power. On average, wind turbines only produce about 20% of their nameplate rating.
    Wind power is unreliable and undispatchable. When it is needed most, it will likely be unavailable to provide any power when it is needed most.
    Wind power is not clean. It takes a lot of dirty energy to make the materials, manufacture and install a wind turbine facility.
    Wind turbines are not environmentally friendly. They are noisy, unsightly, kill bats and birds, interfere with radars, and have been shown to be responsible for a slew of health problems.
    Wind turbines consume electricity whether operating or not. Often this power is not even metered. Care to guess who is paying the bill for this power?
    In theory, if 20% of US electric generation was replaced by wind power, the decrease in CO2 emissions would be an unnoticeable 0.00948%.
    In reality, wind power doesn't reduce CO2 emissions at all, because backup fossil power plants have to cycle wildly and inefficiently trying to keep up with erratic wind power output.
    Wind power will not replace fossil fired power plants. Germany estimates that by 2020 up to 96% of its wind power capacity will need to be backed up by new coal fired power plants.
    Wind power will not reduce US dependency on foreign oil. If wind power replaced 20% of US electric generation, the resulting decrease in oil imports would be a measly 0.292%.
    Wind turbines have an embarrassingly low Energy Returned On Energy Invested value of 0.29. The manufacture, installation and operation of wind power facilities will consume more than 3 times the energy they will ever produce.
    Wind Power is Big Business. The

    Sentiment: Buy

  • emclu emclu Feb 1, 2014 9:16 AM Flag

    I agree its going to stay high($4.50+) as long as the producers don't start opening new wells as weather subsides. I think the EIA was predicting a $4.47 average for 2014 but didn't factor in this bad weather. I don't think they will because if they open to many wells they drive down their profit margin which has happened since 2008 with the low prices. It could definitely take off if this unprecedented cold weather continues through February. It has really drawn wholesale prices to sustained levels not seen for years. For next week buy on any dip to the $4.5 to $4.7 level. IMHO

  • FTEK dropped with the market. IMHO it should recover. Their revenues should be boosted for the first quarter because coal usage should be the best it has been for quite some time. In the East & Midwest a lot of gas plants had to shut down due to NG supply constraints plus the electric demand for January was probably the best it has been in years. Higher NG prices make FTEK a bit more attractive. Could drop if markets continue to correct. Good Luck to all IMHO

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    by emclu Jan 22, 2014 6:56 PM
    emclu emclu Jan 23, 2014 7:07 PM Flag

    I bought 3000 shares. I would buy more but it seems so thinly traded. I do like the story but just not sure how much of it is BS. I say it is a hold if it starts going up I and showing some volume I might buy more. IMHO

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Thanks, Goldman Sachs

    by natgasinv Jan 23, 2014 6:04 AM
    emclu emclu Jan 23, 2014 7:06 AM Flag

    we will be over $5 definitely next week if not this week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • This thing isn't going anywhere soon, low volue=no interest.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Does anyone know how much power Exelon typically hedges. I have noticed that from November to now power prices have been really good. The less you hedge the more you make. Forward prices for the next week or so look excellent. I fugure they don't hedge much of their power from the nukes because of the inability of large load variances.

    Sentiment: Buy

LLY
60.43+0.47(+0.78%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT

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