I am more concerned about their backlog. It seems to be shrinking and they haven't announced any new contracts recently. The Chile one was large but the revenues from that are winding down. IMHO
The posted articles from Financial Times and Seeking Alpha are really shallow. No where is it mentioned that nuclear power is the cheapest way to produce power(excluding hydo) followed by coal and NG. The NG glut in 2009-2013 caused very thin margins. That is over, wholesale power prices have gone up. It should bode well for Nuclear and coal. Wind and solar are way too expensive need massive subsidies just to be built. I suspect the FT article is contrived by shorts and the seeking alpha is just some guy who doesn't fully understand the power industry and hasn't been watching PJM pricing over the last two months or that NG is at $6 mbtus and producers aren't going to open more wells because of the loss they have taken in 2011-13 by over producing. IMHO
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If this hits $7.50 it probably means it is going much higher in the short term. If it doesn't you don't get caught in a range bound stock. It is not clear if and when this stock will go up. Maybe today who knows. Although with block buster news you may not be able to buy at $7.50. What's the deal with the stock the last couple days closing up in the last few minutes after being negative the whole day.
EXC nuclear plants have been running full out the first six weeks of the year and power prices have been the best in years because natural gas is rebounding. Plus they have prevented many NG plants from running due to NG constraints in the PJM markets. BTW keep in mind that NG has always been more expensive then coal or nuclear power. The spread inj 2012 & 2013 has hurt exc however the spread in the first six weeks has been extremely large. This won't last but per EIA if the average NG price is at $4.47 this should keep the spread at 2009, 2010 levels and EXC would have a great year. Once first quarter earning are released there should be some upgrades of EXC although I would expect some buying soon just based on the spreads. Plus with these spreads EXC should have the confidence for a small dividend increase on teh one year anniversary of the cut. IMHO good luck to all
Sentiment: Strong Buy
WHY WIND WON'T WORK
by Charles S. Opalek, PE
Everyone believes alternative energies are the answer to all our power problems, with wind power leading the way. The truth is: Wind power is unsustainable and a total waste of resources.
This the book exposes the utter uselessness of wind power, including how:
Wind turbines rarely produce their advertised full power. On average, wind turbines only produce about 20% of their nameplate rating.
Wind power is unreliable and undispatchable. When it is needed most, it will likely be unavailable to provide any power when it is needed most.
Wind power is not clean. It takes a lot of dirty energy to make the materials, manufacture and install a wind turbine facility.
Wind turbines are not environmentally friendly. They are noisy, unsightly, kill bats and birds, interfere with radars, and have been shown to be responsible for a slew of health problems.
Wind turbines consume electricity whether operating or not. Often this power is not even metered. Care to guess who is paying the bill for this power?
In theory, if 20% of US electric generation was replaced by wind power, the decrease in CO2 emissions would be an unnoticeable 0.00948%.
In reality, wind power doesn't reduce CO2 emissions at all, because backup fossil power plants have to cycle wildly and inefficiently trying to keep up with erratic wind power output.
Wind power will not replace fossil fired power plants. Germany estimates that by 2020 up to 96% of its wind power capacity will need to be backed up by new coal fired power plants.
Wind power will not reduce US dependency on foreign oil. If wind power replaced 20% of US electric generation, the resulting decrease in oil imports would be a measly 0.292%.
Wind turbines have an embarrassingly low Energy Returned On Energy Invested value of 0.29. The manufacture, installation and operation of wind power facilities will consume more than 3 times the energy they will ever produce.
Wind Power is Big Business. The
I agree its going to stay high($4.50+) as long as the producers don't start opening new wells as weather subsides. I think the EIA was predicting a $4.47 average for 2014 but didn't factor in this bad weather. I don't think they will because if they open to many wells they drive down their profit margin which has happened since 2008 with the low prices. It could definitely take off if this unprecedented cold weather continues through February. It has really drawn wholesale prices to sustained levels not seen for years. For next week buy on any dip to the $4.5 to $4.7 level. IMHO
FTEK dropped with the market. IMHO it should recover. Their revenues should be boosted for the first quarter because coal usage should be the best it has been for quite some time. In the East & Midwest a lot of gas plants had to shut down due to NG supply constraints plus the electric demand for January was probably the best it has been in years. Higher NG prices make FTEK a bit more attractive. Could drop if markets continue to correct. Good Luck to all IMHO
I bought 3000 shares. I would buy more but it seems so thinly traded. I do like the story but just not sure how much of it is BS. I say it is a hold if it starts going up I and showing some volume I might buy more. IMHO
Does anyone know how much power Exelon typically hedges. I have noticed that from November to now power prices have been really good. The less you hedge the more you make. Forward prices for the next week or so look excellent. I fugure they don't hedge much of their power from the nukes because of the inability of large load variances.
What your not considering in the above is if the approval process for the TNXP drug falls through the stock could become worthless. The only thing that supports the price of the stocks is the perception of this drug approval and the non institutional trading community that supports it. I see insider holding is relatively low for this stock. If someone gives me a stock and it is up almost 300% in the last couple months I might consider dumping at least some of it. I say this is a short term sell but don't know. Could go up 100% today or maybe down 20%.It isn't like this drug is curing cancer it is for fibro which is one of those new diseases that you can't physically detect the doctor asks you what the symptoms. Oh your tired, can't sleep, can't relax and are in pain all the time. Anyway this stock is having a great run, hope it continues. IMHO
hope they are all wrong because Bank of America, Merril Lynch and others downgraded EXC on 1/3/14. Of course these are the same institutions that received hundreds of millions of bail out money when they were all about to collapse. I think the first quarter earning and fourth quarter earning for EXC will be pretty decent due to the cold weather and Natural gas prices trending up. They pay a pretty decent dividend and I think there will be a slight increase in their dividend announcement in May for the 2nd quarter IMHO
yes but it is still down from $10. There are a few hundred of these "biotech" companies looking for drug approvals and this stock like the rest are all high beta gambles that you put your bet down on. IMHO Of course some will get drug approvals and go up several hundred percent. Others just trade and go up like that. I don't like this one because of the low volume it is trading.
support at $18.50 and then $17.00. That would be a great buy at $17 gas would be about $3.60 mmbtu's. Maybe traders can take it down to these levels. Real users though should eventually drive it up to $4.50 per EIA. May bounce tomorrow.
If Exelon hasn't hedged their units just the revenues from last week and next week should make their quarter. Prices are in the $200's. Plus NG reserves are shrinking and it will take a lot of time to recover. NG prices haven't went though. I am thinking they will. Right know traders are betting on the reserves not going down that much. Who knows but one thing is for sure. If this demand doesn't bring down NG prices nothing will.
what makes you think it will gap up Monday? Could drop at open. Actually schools and office building will need more heating gas because when people are in the building the heat they generate causes less gas usage. Spot price of gas should be up a lot but isn't UNG relying on Feb 14 contracts?
I agree with you about the hype and don't thing NG is going to go up much in price. However what I can tell you is that where I work the gas company told us Friday that we can't use and NG for power generation due to shortage of supply in our region. Utilities will buy gas on contract for base loaded units but for peaking units they will buy market. Most region rely on peakers during very cold or hot days so it is possible spot prices for NG will go up quite a bit next week in the Midwest, East and possibly other areas. Once the weather breaks itis back to normal. H eoher thing is that a lot of coal fired unit have been shut down so NG usage at least next week should really be at a maximum. IMHO