Gary you would think low oil would be good but this morning with oil below $30 and down over 5% in pre market LUV is showing down in pre market. Hopefully next week they will report good earning and it may be a good catalyst for a move up. Still looks like a great buy to me. Should continue to generate a ton of cash, low debt, continued growth with new routes.
Yes I see oil up I wonder if that is due to the tensions between Iran & Saudi Arabia. Although I don't think that will help SUNE. The low price of natural gas to me is the key factor as that depresses wholesale power prices. The East, South & Midwest have had a lot of coal fired units off because of low NG prices. California markets are really dependent on NG as they have virtually no coal fired units with the exception of whatever they import which is about 30% of their supply. NG prices have increased from $1.80 mmbtu's to over $2.30.
Here is the way I look at it. I wouldn't worry to much about the value of the assets but keep in mind they do have 50,000 MW's located all over the country. To build similar assets to what they have a minimum price is about 2000/kw or 2,000,000/mw so building 50,000 mw of replacement power is 1000 billion. At these power prices no one will build new generation or it will be minimal. This is important as more generation is retired this year. Here is what the company needs to so in order of importance
1) consolidate all the renewables that are losing money into a subsidary company and insulate that from the core business (fossil generating, retail electric & select utility renewable generation. They are doing that.
2) Dump non performing assets and see what cash you can get for them. They are doing this.
3) Cut O &M costs as much as practical.
4) First priority. With cash is to service debt, interest expense & debt due. They should be able to do this.
5) As all this is playing out try to maintain the dividend. This will provide stock support.
NRG will probably have an income of about $15 billion next year. They only need about $1.2 billion or less to service the debt & about $200 million for dividends. I am not saying this is a good buy here but if it drops due to market conditions to the $8's it would be a good bet in my opinion. Their revenues for this quarter are going to be bad due to power prices. IMHO