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American International Group, Inc. Message Board

emerging_mkts 49 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 9:58 PM Member since: Oct 26, 2006
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  • Nobel Laureate Fedrally001, Obama's nominee for "Debt Elimination Czar" inside the US treasury, has just been confirmed by the Senate !! Yipeeeee !!

    The confirmed nominee is none other than our beloved Fedrally. Fedrally's VIX CUNTango thoery for doubling any amount of money every year stunned the World of Economics in 2013. He deservedly won the Economics Nobel in 2014.

    Many people have proposed money doubling schemes before, but what makes Fedrally's invention unique is its simplicity and its scalability.

    1. VIX CUNTango is guaranteed to exist by God, and will exist no matter how much you want to profit from it.

    2. Again, since VIX CUNTango will exist no matter how much you want to milk it, it is "infinitely" scalable. Your money doubles every year, no matter if you are doubling $1 to $2 or $100 Trillion to $200 Trillion. The CUNTango always works. IT IS THAT SIMPLE.

    According to Fedrally's invaluable math, the US treasury plans to eliminate all debt in 10 years, i.e by 2025. The US treasury will just invest $50 Billion (small change for the treasury) into a rolling short-VIX.portfolio, just like SVXY. Based on Fedrally's CUNTango math, that $50 Billion will become at least $50 Trillion by 2025. Needless to say, all the existing debt as well as the projected Medicare and SS shortfalls will be wiped out, top income tax bracket will be lowered to just 5%, and yet the treasury will simply give away about $2870 to each person in the US or about $98 to each person in the world.

    Fedrally holds the patent on rolling short-VIX scheme, so others cannot use it to multiply their money. That is the only reason the Wall St. firms still have other operations. But for the patent by Fedrally, every Wall St firm would just create a rolling short-VIX portfolio of a few billion dollars, and shutter all their other operations. Every millionaire would love to invest a million in short-VIX to make a billion in 10 years, but Fedrally's patent won't allow that ! Too bad !!

  • President Obama has just announced the nomination of an Economics Nobel Laureate for the just created "Debt Elimination Czar" inside the US treasury.

    The nominee is none other than our beloved Fedrally. Fedrally's VIX CUNTango thoery for doubling the money roughly every year stunned the World of Economics in 2013. He deservedly won the Economics Nobel last year.

    People have proposed money doubling schemes before, but what is unique in Fedrally's theory is its simplicity and its scalability.

    1. VIX CUNTango is guaranteed by God, and will exist no matter how much you want to profit from it. It is really that simple.

    2. Again, VIX CUNTango will exist no matter how much you want to milk it, hence it is "infinitely" scalable. The doubling never stops whether you are trying to double $1 to $2 or $100 trillion to $200 Trillion. The CUNTango always yields !!

    According to Fedrally's amazingly simple yet invaluable math, the US treasury plans to eliminate all debt in 10 years. The US treasury just wants to invest $50 Billion (small change for the treasury) into a rolling short-VIX.portfolio. Based on Fedrally's math, that $50B will become at least $50 Trillion by 2025. With that, all the existing debt as well as the projected Medicare and SS shortfalls can be wiped out in just 10 years. And yet the treasury can reduce income tax by 17.3%, and still simply give away something like $2870 to each citizen of the US.

    This is a patented trading scheme (patent held by Fedrally), so unfortunately the big portfolio managers, all the way up to,Blackrock cannot use it to multiply their money. That is the only thing which is preventing the shutdown of Wall St. as we know it. Otherwise, every investment house would just love to just create a rolling short-VIX portfolio of a few billion dollars, and shutter all their other operations.

  • Reply to

    Once again ignore the EM idiot

    by fedrally001 Jun 23, 2015 2:50 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 24, 2015 12:43 PM Flag

    The tail is wagging the dog, for sure.. The fact is the "long-side" tail is continuing to remain very heavy (pulling in new money). The short-side is making money, but is shedding the so-made money all the time, never letting it be strong enough to wag the dog.

    Anyways, if the projections of $1m/share etc. were to come true, the short-side tail would be wagging the dog, right ?

    Sure, arbitrageurs are involved all the time, even right now. They are part of the aggregate supply-demand picture. I don't understand your exact point about them.

    Lastly, can you show me some literature that talks about the possibility (or impossibility) of doubling the money every year from VIX futures ? I am an amateur, and surely would like to see what the professionals think about this.

  • Reply to

    Once again ignore the EM idiot

    by fedrally001 Jun 23, 2015 2:50 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 24, 2015 9:48 AM Flag

    Your point is well-taken. Share price is what matters to the holder.

    The fact is that the rest of the world is selling off (for some reason). If YOU keep holding a few shares (never sell), but the rest of the world keeps selling, the mkt cap remains manageable all the time, and it helps YOU.

    If you keep doubling the value of your holding every year, but the fund mkt cap stays stuck around a certain value, sooner or later you will become the sole investor in the whole fund.

    Is that hard to understand ?

  • Reply to

    Once again ignore the EM idiot

    by fedrally001 Jun 23, 2015 2:50 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 24, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    90% of the VIX derivatives are held outside these ETPs ??? REALLY ????

    Just pick up the total M1 outstanding number from CBOE site. Add up the long-side M1 outstanding positions, VXX, UVXY, VIXY, TVIX will do.

    Now tell us how much outstanding M1 you find outside of these ETPs. You would instantly know whether 90% of VIX derivatives are held by these ETPs or outside these ETPs.

  • Reply to

    Ignore EM

    by fedrally001 Jun 18, 2015 9:24 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 23, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    VIX is low and contango is big. It is not like M1-M2 is going to be 30% for a sustained period if S&P runs another 10% . That was my point.

    What keeps preplexing me is the steadily dwindling shares outstanding (and mkt cap of SVXY), while price-per-share keeps rising. Are bobwins and fedrally going to remain the only holders, everyone else slowly trading out of SVXY ?

  • Reply to

    Ignore EM

    by fedrally001 Jun 18, 2015 9:24 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 19, 2015 2:23 PM Flag

    B'ard, you must be implying that I asked someone to short SVXY (or XIV) and he lost his shirt as a result ?

    Can you show me one instance where I called for shorting SVXY or XIV ?

    The second half rally can be a strong one, just as the decline be a strong one... Or it can do another 9 months of nothing.. how the fawuk would you know ?

    Anyways, VIX is near rock bottom (except for a week or two when it has gone into the 10's). What would a 10% S&P rally do to VIX that it hasn't already done ?

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 16, 2015 4:27 PM Flag

    Let's say the rally continues for another 25 years, and S&P keeps going... to say 80000.

    Does that automatically ensure that the mkt for VIX will grow 1000 times bigger ?

    How big a mkt can the VIX futures be ? That is the only question you need to reflect on.

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 16, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Whether he has money in XIV (or SVXY) or not, I don't want to guess. But I can't believe he is talking it down. He has been one of the most regular pimps of short-VIX funds. He is a high-school student who learned about compounding two years ago. He has assumed that short-VIX funds will double every year. Two raised to the power 10 is 1024, and that is his source of calculation (1K to 1M in 10 years) comes just from that. His various targets have been been as follows - sometimes 1B in 30 years, sometimes 10M in 15 years.

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 12, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    You lying bas***d !

    1. First of all, XIV has not grown 10x even from its lowest ever price, EVER on the all-time chart.
    2. Your claim of $1K to $1B (that is a billion with a B) came lmore like a year ago, using SVXY (not XIV).

    I think you better put a lid on your #$%$ for the next several months and watch it carefully, rather than rejoicing in the greece lid !

    Over time, you will continue to make some money from inverse-VIX. Just don't be unrealistic in your expectations. Remember, if there is guaranteed or near-guaranteed big-money somewhere, someone has already made it before you.

  • Reply to

    SVXY should be 150 now, why so low

    by eejjww36 Jun 10, 2015 1:32 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 10, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    As soon as you sell, it will go to 150.

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 10, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    S&P will fall below 2000 by the end of 2016. Very likely by the summer of 2016. That is my prediction.

  • The bulls (er.., the cows) will be kept in the aroused and lubricated state, hoping for an everlasting org...sm. This state of anticipation will likely continue for the rest of this year. Yellen will likely find excuse after excuse to stretch it out until Dec. Each time, the excuse getting a little weaker.

    Eventually Yellen will not be able to hold the fart anymore. She will let it out.

    And the market will start dumping hard on the cows..

  • Reply to

    I have an open order to buy YHOO at $40.99

    by yru_back Jun 9, 2015 10:49 AM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 9, 2015 11:07 AM Flag

    I haven't been watching Yhoo, so I won't know. But remember one thing : All these technical theories are meant to be taken as approximate guidelines, not as absolute precision indicators, down to pennies, in a $49 stock !!

    The round-number psychology is quite strong. Human nature.

  • Reply to

    I have an open order to buy YHOO at $40.99

    by yru_back Jun 9, 2015 10:49 AM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 9, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    You may get your fill today.

    However, you have a lot better chance of filling at 41.01 than 40.99 . That is a general truth about round numbers psychology.

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 9, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    You think someone has the time to read your post, complain, then someone at Yahoo has the time to take action on it so fast ?

    Yahoo has put filters in place to delete malicious posts. Sometimes it catches things rightly, sometimes wrongly... that is the limitation of technology...

  • After adding some money in Mid-May (only for a week), money continues to leave SVXY like there is no tomorrow.

    From 05/11 to 05/19, SVXY added a lot of incoming money. Shares outstanding went up to $350 million, from $206 million.

    But since 05/19, money has been moving out. As of 06/05, we had only 2.0 million shares outstanding, and the mkt cap is only $180 million...

    WHY is there so little interest in SVXY ? Is bobwins continuing to hold on, and add on ? How long before bobwins becomes the sole shareholder of SVXY ?

  • emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 4, 2015 2:54 PM Flag

    When does your lvl2 analysis show VIX hitting the 20 level again ?

  • Reply to

    reverse from here i command

    by nomorepop Jun 4, 2015 2:39 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 4, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Sure, show me. I am listening/watching...

  • Reply to

    reverse from here i command

    by nomorepop Jun 4, 2015 2:39 PM
    emerging_mkts emerging_mkts Jun 4, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    You ACTUALLY think there are FED bots ? Or is that joke ?

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