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Walgreen Co. Message Board

emt8601 87 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 11:35 AM Member since: Feb 15, 2012
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  • I would be ok with RAD doing the same. If RAD would just stick to reporting sales in the monthly sales report, fine. But, in some quarters, they also provide updates on EPS guidance and in others they wait for the earnings release. One report per quarter, an earnings release, is good with me.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 18, 2015 9:44 PM Flag

    After I read the highlights in each quarterly release, the first statement that I go to is the cash flow statement, not the balance sheet or the income statement.

  • Reply to

    RAD... share price in 1987 was 11.00

    by caseyboy416 Jan 18, 2015 7:17 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 18, 2015 9:36 PM Flag

    Technically, you are correct unclebobky and I believe that it's pretty clear that Ford didn't need any government money to survive and wasn't bailed out like GM and Chrysler. But, I do believe that Ford management encouraged and benefitted from government loan programs and the cash for clunkers debacle.

  • Reply to

    Debt and Common Sense

    by ahrvincent Jan 18, 2015 5:57 PM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 18, 2015 8:58 PM Flag

    Are you still debating Vince? I put him on ignore when I realized that his profile was on created on Jul 2, 2014. when RAD was trading at $7.17. Yet, he claims to have counseled you and others on the merits of RAD since 2012 at $1, $2, $3 and $4. When did MickeyJr. stop posting here?

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 17, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    No. But, these shares that I traded are in a regular IRA (not my trading account), which is where about two-thirds of my RAD holdings are.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 17, 2015 2:16 PM Flag

    I'm going to reassess my holdings in RAD again in the next month or 2. I started to reduce my holdings in RAD on June 4th when I sold about 20% of my shares at $8.535. I was ready to sell another 50K shares at $8.58 that day, but thought that I would get a better price after SSS were released on June 5th. So, I never sold the 50k shares. Since June 4th, I took all the proceeds from my sale and bought back more shares at a lower price.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 17, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    **** So how many fools or liers really bet the farm @ .21 cents? I say not many. ****

    My lowest purchase was at $0.308. And, in total, I purchased 194,000 shares at between 0.308 and $0.45 per share. I did have a concern in early 2009 as to whether RAD would have issues refinancing its credit facility. And in late Dec 2008 and early Jan 2009 Cramer was on two different videos predicting a RAD BK. But, once the credit facility was refinanced in 2009, I haven't really had a major concern with a delisting, reverse split or a BK since.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 17, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    The estimated annual interest savings of $50 million is based on current LIBOR rates. Changes in future LIBOR rates, if any, will either increase or decrease the actual interest savings.

  • Reply to

    I Made 1.0% owning rad 9 months....

    by caseyboy416 Jan 16, 2015 4:37 PM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 17, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    I don't think that most of the posters here read financial statements and some seem to rely on the Motley Fool and others like them for investment advice. I'm more optimistic than you on RAD's future growth, but I do believe that the amount of cash flow that RAD can generate from operating activities is going to be a limiting factor in future growth.

    In FY2013, RAD's cash flow from operating activities tripled to $820 million from $266 million in FY2012 and in late FY2013, RAD's share price started to take off. In FY2014, cash flow from operating activities decreased to $702 million and in the 39 weeks ended Nov 29, 2014, it is $474 million, which should get us to about $700-$800 million in FY2015. In short, I don't see any growth in cash flows from operating activities in the period from FY2013 to FY2015.

  • Reply to

    I ask all you IDIOT bashers.....

    by skquinn4975 Jan 15, 2015 7:30 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 15, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    **** You say RAD has no plans to pay down debt in 2015. ****

    Debt has increased by about $100 million in the 39 weeks ended Nov 29, 2014. I don't know exactly how Q4 plays out, but I do know that they have $120 million left to spend in the capex budget and I know that that this CEO will spend it. I also know that they have bank fees to pay on the refinancing. So, I guess to the extent they generate more cash from operating activities in Q4 than is needed for capex and bank fees (and I think that they could), that could go to debt repayment.

    **** They already have $20B in the bag with up to $50B ****

    I understand that RAD will save up to $50 million per year in interest, based on current borrowing rates. Are you saying tthat RAD will use that savings to repay debt? or will they spend it on capex?

    **** just by restricting their debt.****

    I don't know what this means.

    **** They are managing their debt ***

    Are they? Debt has increased by about $100 million since FY2014 year end.

    **** If your saying they should do nothing to their stores and just pay back debt they will go the way of K-Mart and Sears. ****

    I'm not saying anything of the sort, you just made that up. I just think that there needs to be a balanced approach to investing in growth and debt paydown.

    **** You have your opinion and I have mine...lets leave it at that! ****

    Put me on ignore, if you don't want to read my posts. I wouldn't care.

  • Reply to

    I ask all you IDIOT bashers.....

    by skquinn4975 Jan 15, 2015 7:30 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 15, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    **** So if you think management is spending like a drunk (whatever that means?) you have no clue! ****

    As a long that has posted here for 5-6 years (and may own more shares than anyone else posting here), I have a concern with current RAD financial leadership. I rode RAD down to $0.20 to $0.25 (whatever the official bottom was) and close to half the shares that I now own were purchased at between about $0.31 to $0.45. Personally, I give the old RAD CFO a lot of credit for getting RAD through 2008-2009.

    What I would call "spending like a drunk" would be taking every dollar that you generate from operating activities and putting it into capex and acquisitions and not paying down a dollar of debt. That is what RAD will do in FY15. And I would say that changing the mix on fixed/variable rate debt from about 80%/20% to about 20%/80% is putting RAD in a riskier position for a few cents to the bottom line.

  • Reply to

    Why RAD is Down Today

    by ar.sigis Jan 12, 2015 11:16 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 12, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    A few comments:

    **** Using debt interest of .075%, debt was reduced by approximately 60M. ****

    At Nov 29, 2014, debt increased about $100 million as compared to the balance at Aug 30, 2014. [source - both BS and cash flow statements in Form 10-Qs]. Interest rates on both fixed and variable rate debt were about 20 basis points lower at Nov 29, 2014 as compared to Aug 30, 2014, which I expect was primarily responsible for the decrease in interest expense in Q3 along with some impact from lower amortization expense on debt discount (i.e. 10.25% debt).

    **** If one adds the 60M back onto the 106.2M earnings for the last Q, we actually have earnings of 166.2, which is outstanding. ****

    Why would you think you could adjust earnings by the change in debt balance? This is actually knd of funny.

    **** The actual figures could be better. ****

    Or worse, I guess when debt goes up.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 11, 2015 6:58 PM Flag

    Agreed. Think:

    lower product costs;
    lower transportation costs to get product to stores; and
    lower utility costs at corporate offices, distribution centers and stores.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 11, 2015 6:50 PM Flag

    This may not be a complete list, but RAD sells more Thrifty products than I thought:

    Ice cream - 1.75 quart or one pint size - various flavors.
    Giant ice cream sandwiches - flavors - Neapolitan, birthday party, vanilla
    Frozen desert - 4.5 quart size - various flavors
    Nonfat yogurt - one pint size - various flavors

  • Reply to

    Renovated Rite Aides !!!!!!!

    by peaveykp Jan 11, 2015 1:35 PM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 11, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    **** Just went to the new CVS by my house to get free body wash.****

    Don't know of any pharmacy around me offering this service. Good for you!

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 10, 2015 1:35 PM Flag

    The ice cream manufacturing plant is in El Monte, CA, somewhere east of LA. It is one of RAD\s owned facilities.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 10, 2015 1:22 PM Flag

    I've had it. They only sell it on the West Coast and some stores near me have ice cream counters. The Chocolate Malted Krunch is really good. I try not to buy it too often as whatever I don't eat the day I buy it, I generally end up finishing it for breakfast the next day.

  • Reply to

    Thoughts This Week

    by ahrvincent Jan 10, 2015 8:54 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 10, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    **** While I don't expect any immediate buyout or takeover, ,it may well be in the cards following one more good report or positive news release.****

    If a "buyout or takeover" is the likely end game for RAD, then that may explain why mgmt. is less committed to paying down debt near-term and is refinancing more fixed rate debt with variable rate debt. I believe that this strategy gives RAD better near-term growth, but puts RAD in a riskier position long-term, regardless of how relaxed one might be about future LIBOR rate increases.

    Based on RAD's use of cash in the 39 weeks ended Nov 29, 2014 (all cash generated from operating activities was used for capex and acquisitions and debt increased by $88 million), the fact that there is $120 million left to be spent in the capex budget in Q4 and financing fees will be paid in Q4, I don't believe that RAD will reduce/repay debt in FY15. And at FY15 year-end, approximately 70% of RAD's debt will be at variable rates of interest, up from about 20% a few years ago.

    Also, over the last 3 fiscal years, RAD's cash flow generated from operating activities appears to have flat-lined at about $700-$800 million per year ($474 million (39 weeks/FY15), $702 million (FY14) and $820 million (FY13). What $525 million in capex spend is getting RAD this year is some new scripts, remodels and a few relocations and new stores in existing and contiguous markets, not continguous states. So, where will meaningful growth come from with RAD's limited cash flow? And if RAD is spending $500-$600 million per year on capex and acquisitions and continues to incur refinancing fees, what's left to repay debt?

  • Reply to

    Thoughts This Week

    by ahrvincent Jan 10, 2015 8:54 AM
    emt8601 emt8601 Jan 10, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    Makes me wonder if that's what some of the recent mindless hyper pumping is all about.

  • emt8601 emt8601 Jan 9, 2015 12:19 PM Flag

    **** A flu season makes it or breaks it. Weird ? Don't think CVS or Walgreens are worried.****

    It's material enough to operating results that CVS and WAG also discuss flu shots/activity. It doesn't make or break anything.

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