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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

enabeler 123 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: Oct 23, 2003
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  • Reply to

    Since the Comets

    by duckduffer 13 hours ago
    enabeler enabeler 12 hours ago Flag

    We're seriously overdue for upside catalyst type news. When you think about it, there really hasn't been any positives since the bone imaging news in 2010.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    METEOR interim analysis

    by scrotum_harden Mar 28, 2015 4:41 PM
    enabeler enabeler 14 hours ago Flag

    "Fact is...we'll know soon enough"

    We'll know "after" the fact; the more profound question is how many and who already knows? I understand that theoretically there are no leaks from the monitoring committee, but the 100% increase in the sp since December speaks volumes.

    The recent pullback is more related to an overall corrective and crummy market, but the facts (PFS success in previous test results) are hard to dispute. The other fact that is hard to dispute is that EXEL has disappointed and come up short (bad choice of words?) so many times.

    Back to the question of how many already know? The SI continues to increase and the shorts have certainly been right, but I think this is more of a "press" and now they are playing with house money. it would be nice to see some insider buys, but that doesn't seem to be the case as Morrissey and crew are more science oriented and don't seem to really care about how shareholders fare. Meanwhile, as shareholders we are left to our devices, which in this case is not much.

    I wish I could be more optimistic like boonie but does anybody really believe that he just bought over $500,000 worth of EXEL w/o any real history on this board. I hope he's legit, but I have my significant doubts.

  • Reply to

    SI up another 3.8% in March

    by enabeler Mar 27, 2015 9:45 AM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 27, 2015 6:39 PM Flag

    EXEL is not the only biotech being aggressively shorted:

    "By and large, the short interest moves in the leading biotechs and emerging pharmaceuticals were mild between the February 27 and March 13 settlement dates. However, Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ: CELG), Illumina, Inc. (NASDAQ: ILMN) and Medivation Inc (NASDAQ: MDVN) saw double-digit percentage upswings in their short interest."

    That's some pretty heady company for EXEL to be with. Nasdaq is responsible for creating and nurturing this behavior. It has increased trading activity to levels never seen before. it is far beyond time for the SEC and the Feds to investigate Nasdaq and the hedge fund industry for creating volume for the sake of volume and commissions, no to mention the manipulation of hundreds of small company stocks. There is criminal activity but as usual the regulators will look the other way (i.e Bernie Maddoff) because the money is just too great and too easy to make.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Way beyond just a normal hedge, now a a good news catalyst may just ignite a wave of short covering from the newest and most vulnerable retail shorts.

    Quarterly window dressing should end on Monday. Hang in there longs, relief is on the way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Been watching Exelixis for a long time

    by kahn_boonie Mar 24, 2015 1:26 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 24, 2015 2:27 PM Flag

    So why now? Why do you show up the day after wilder disappears? What was it that made you come out of the shadows now?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • enabeler enabeler Mar 24, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Thanks social, you said you valued METEOR @ 2.82 for EXEL (if successful, obviously). How much do you value cobi if it receives approval on Aug 11th?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • The independent monitoring committee ended Keytruda's tests early saying they had reached their goal of PFS and OS. This seems like it would be a first-line treatment for advanced melanoma, as well as treatment for patients failing earlier treatment like Yervoy.

    With wilder on sabatical, does any one else with scientific knowledge care to comment on how this might change the landscape in advanced melanoma and for Zelboraf/Cobi specifically?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Twilight zone!

    by enabeler Mar 24, 2015 9:09 AM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 24, 2015 9:56 AM Flag

    i rethemble that remark, go walk your dog, you have alot od servwe.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Twilight zone!

    by enabeler Mar 24, 2015 9:09 AM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 24, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    now I can see all the posts from the strand under "messages" but wilder's posts are gone. I think he changed his mind?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • enabeler by enabeler Mar 24, 2015 9:09 AM Flag

    I was up late last night and I thought I read a post from wilderguide that he had enough he was leaving the EXEL board. A couple of us argued that he should stay, yatta, yatta, yatta and today the whole strand is missing. Did I dream it all? Was it a fake wilder and Yahoo deleted it all? Something funny is happening here in the neighborhood; who ya gonna call ...GHOSTBUSTERS!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "Shorts-to-smithereens" volume candle

    by wilderguide Mar 23, 2015 6:37 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 24, 2015 12:54 AM Flag

    Not very convincing wilder. I don't doubt that you have traded EXEL successfully and therefore have a lot of low cost shares, but about a week ago in another strand dealing with METEOR you warned about keeping an eye on the competition. You may still have a lot of shares but nowhere near what you've had in the past. Is it anti PDL-1? BMY or Genentech/Roche?

    I don't care how low your cost basis is. Your ego and 4-5 years on this MB lead me to conclude you no longer believe EXEL is worth owning and therefore you are moving on w/o having to admit that you were possibly wrong. You're only human, and I don't wish you any harm, but I hope you have to look back someday and kick yourself for getting out just before the huge move.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "Shorts-to-smithereens" volume candle

    by wilderguide Mar 23, 2015 6:37 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 23, 2015 11:41 PM Flag

    Sorry wilder, I don't buy it; you wouldn't be hanging it up on this board if you were still in. The chances of getting back at your nemesis would be too tempting. I think you know, or think you know, something the rest of us are missing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    "Shorts-to-smithereens" volume candle

    by wilderguide Mar 23, 2015 6:37 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 23, 2015 9:26 PM Flag

    Wilder, seems a little unusual for you to be taking a hiatus right before some pretty important catalysts.

    I for one will miss your helpful posts. I hope this is not related to any health issues for you or your family. Don't hesitate to come back and keep us informed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Just a couple of tutes doing some qtr end adjustments.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • enabeler enabeler Mar 21, 2015 12:54 AM Flag

    "short cover is probably too obvious/easy explanation"

    Agreed! I'm surprised so few of the regulars have not commented more or speculated about the activity at the close or AH's. I would like to hear some more theories from some of the regulars.

    Personally, I think it might have something to do with the new exercise price for the warrants to be issued in the extension of the Deerefield loan, but it would make more sense for them to short against the future exercise. Or maybe Roche has seen enough?

    It's late and I've watched too much basketball (March Madness, baby) to really care right now, so I hope we hear from the regulars over the weekend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CHMP meets next week

    by wilderguide Mar 19, 2015 1:46 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 20, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Noted and added to an impressive list of catalysts due to arrive in the next few months.

  • enabeler by enabeler Mar 19, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    We're settling in for the METEOR "watch" . March Madness will be a welcome relief from the real world. See you all in a couple of weeks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Love Exel

    by eddietees Mar 18, 2015 8:25 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 19, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    ".but after listening to the CEO i'm a believer"

    So were The Monkees!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on EXEL

    by rinostarr14 Mar 18, 2015 6:27 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 19, 2015 9:39 AM Flag

    I didn't suggest you do anything, you brought up the idea of calls. $3 are risky enough and leveraging them with options seems a bit extreme. I thought I made that clear but obviously you took me seriously.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some thoughts on EXEL

    by rinostarr14 Mar 18, 2015 6:27 PM
    enabeler enabeler Mar 19, 2015 12:30 AM Flag

    The obvious answer is that calls expire worthless a lot more often than stock prices go to zero due to time premium and intrinsic value. If your looking for leverage in a 2.75 stock you should probably buy the in the money 2.50 calls for August(.75) which will be less volatile if the stock goes nowhere, while the deep out of money calls expire.
    You could of course buy the 2.00 puts(.40) to protect the downside (at the same time that you buy the 2.50 calls), and still do quite well if both catalysts materialize. If METEOR is a bust (in the 2nd qtr) you will still have some value in the 2.50 call and will get a big premium on the 2.00 August put. If you're right and the catalysts materialize your profit if the stock explodes will be reduced by only .40. Essentially you'd be spending 1.10 with only a .50 risk and unlimited upside. Good luck, no need to thank me.LOL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

EXEL
2.54+0.05(+2.01%)Mar 27 4:00 PMEDT