Don't get me wrong. I wasn't intending to insult anyone, especially someone making great contributions to the board. The 'suggestion' about 'honesty' and 'likeability' was meant in jest. I guess I should have :)'d it. This is an anonymous forum after all.
PS:- Since the best possible use of these boards is lead generation and since you've taken the trouble to do your DD, take a peek at QIWI, a sort of payments/banking company operating in Russia and satelites countries. It's hard to find stocks priced the way QIWI is priced with the balance sheet is has combined with the growth level it's experiencing. I've listened to their management of a few conf. calls and was extremely impressed by their conservative financial management.
eejjww36 is trying to propagate the idea that QIWI does not have that $11 in the bank. We've been discussing the possibility that the Martians may have taken the money. We're taking due-diligence off-planet just to be certain we're covering all the bases with Qiwi!
I'm not arguing the economics of the situation. It's just that the market rarely reflects the economics in a specific stock like POT. For about two year before oil collapsed, we all know the imbalance that was building. Supply and demand were completely out-of-whack and yet the pps soared and stayed well above $100 a barrel. During those 2 years I posted many times that the economics of the situation should cause the price of oil to be under $50 yet I was wrong for over two years. The 'experts' on the Street found other reasons, like political instability, to justify the crazy prices that were making the demand/supply imbalance even worse, which forced the eventual collapse.
With crop inputs like potash, the situation is similar but not as extreme, and the price has corrected fairly quickly. I sense a kind of desperation in your posts. You want the pps to go where you think it should be so you can go long POT from a position of relative safety. Your argument is sell,sell,sell so the pps drops and I can get my position. It may never happen or it may take longer to happen than you can wait. In any case, what you're doing is totally logical. If you were to introduce just a small bit of honesty as well, then you could add likeabilty to your posts.
In your world, are there any positives at all for POT shareholders? What if the world doesn't actually come an end?
However GAAP earnings shows a 1c loss per share.
Management seems to be absolutely determined not to allow the p/e into positive territory and for the life I cannot understand their strategy. It's now 20 years later for petesake. If not now then when?
Did anyone on the conf. call ask if the Martians had agreed to return Qiwi's cash?
Thanks for sharing your views. It is a welcome change to see a poster put some arguments behind their opinions. I appreciate the effort you made.
I believe prices for agricultural produce are also impacted by the regular business cycles outside of agriculture. A return to stronger growth will pull agricultural products with it and provide increased demand for crop inputs. The question is really where are we, and China, India, Europe, South America in the business cycle. I would be surprised if there was not a pickup in the next decade. I would also be surprised if that pickup did not help POT.
One minor point I would dispute:-
- It has not been 7 years since POT traded over $60. On July 22, 2011, (3 years 10 months ago) POT closed at $61.64.
I think you're allowing your negativity get away from you there. Your margin of error is unacceptably high on that 'fact'!
6:35 am QIWI beats by RUB 2.58, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY16 guidance (QIWI) :
Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of RUB 20.41 per share, excluding non-recurring items, RUB 2.58 better than the two analyst estimate of RUB17.83; revenues fell 0.2% year/year to RUB 2.51 bln vs the RUB 2.53 bln Capital IQ Consensus. Total payment volume increased 25% to RUB 198.1 billion ($2.9 billion)
Co reaffirms guidance for FY16, sees FY16 revs of +5-8% to ~RUB 10739-11046 bln vs. $11 bln Capital IQ Consensus; adjusted Net Profit is expected to increase by 7% to 12% over 2015.
- Regulatory changes in Russia not as disruptive as forecast and positive for the long term for Qiwi.
- Strong financial management leaves Qiwi with a pristine balance sheet.
- Positive earnings despite meltdown in Russia.
- Payment business still exhibiting impressive growth
Only issue is a potential takeout (definitely needs poison pill here as valuation is now 100% senseless)
So, in your opinion, it was overvalued a few years back at $62? In just a few short years I've watched it fall from $60 to $15. At $15, I was willing to bet on a bottom but there's nothing to say it could not fall to $10. It's just hard to believe that food producers will abandon food production once the price of fertilizer has dropped 70%. My common sense tells me people will opt not to starve to death just so a prophet on a stock message board can be right!
Predictions of the end of time are as old as time itself but here we are, still waiting!
I'm willing to bet Trump's tax returns show that he has no taxable income and that the sum of his assets and liabilities puts his net worth a a lot closer to zero than to $8B.
"Megyn Kelly" from the Fox Echo Chamber?
If it's going to be make-believe, why not put that at the start of the post so we don't waste time reading the rest?
You could be right:-
- this whole internet thing could be just a passing fad!
- most people will likely never do online purchases, online banking or online bill-paying.
As the oil-price based recession continues in Russia, people will not seek better deals online.
I see people returning to the tried and trusted postal mail, local stores and money dealers!
At an industry average p/s of just 3, $300 million in annual revs puts the value of the SYNC at $900 nillion.
That's $30 per share for those who are math-challenged!
That's a beat in my book.
Close to $160M on positive cash flow strengthens the balance sheet.
Don't get the afterhours reaction- expect pps to rise tomorrow.
Let's clear up something here.
When you file financial results, the Balance sheet cannot show customer cash as business entity cash.
The cash shown in the balance sheet is Qiwi's cash. It has nothing to do cash customer cash flowing through machines in Qiwi's network. This is about as basic as you can get.
Right now there may be 10 billion worth of transactions in the system. If Qiwi's accountants were to somehow co-mingle all that cash with their own business cash, we'd need new accountants, and a new business!
Based on expected 2017 revs, SYNC is now valued at just 20 weeks of 2017 revenue.
The industry average is 156 weeks (3 years).
That means SYNC is trading at an 87% discount to the space.
That would suggest our mgt should be paid just 13% of the industry average, instead of 120%.