Don't own any fnma, but sub $2 is a bit too much doom and gloom don't you think? It's trading at 4.14 right now. Hold your horses, the sky isn't falling.
A market top should be preceeded by general market euphoria and a sense that stocks will keep going high forever, sky being the limit. I can't say that I feel this is the current sentiment. What it does feel like is certain forces would like for a decent size correction, but so far the economic data hasn't supported that type of correction. The indices are trading at normal multiples, there is nothing abundant so far on valuation.
People like extremes, but to me, the trend going forward in the next years feels like slow and steady rise, no euphoria yet.
Just my 2 cents.
Primary New Insurance Written (Billions)
Beginning Primary Delinquent Inventory (# of loans)
Plus: New Notices
Less: Paids (including those charged to a deductible or captive)
Less: Rescissions and Denials (1)
Ending Primary Delinquent Inventory (# of loans)
Wonder what happened to that DQ inventory at RDN, 3k lower in just one month, those were pretty impressive stats considering the time of year & weather.
I don't expect MTG to come out higher than the 1.9 NIW of RDN, maybe 1.5. Our inventory has been hanging around just above 100K, it's time for that to dip under 100, that would be a milestone.
I thought you wrote your final last post a few days ago on this board, what are you still doing here?
What you do is up to you of course, no one is gonna tell you if you should stay or go, but currently you're scoring low on the credibility ladder.
Indeed, it is a plague, and i was very disappointed when I first saw them appear.
If there were ever any doubts regarding market manipulation, look no further than today's trading. Market is up, we have a positive beta in relation to the market, and guess what: we are down, trading exactly at 9. What a coincidence. Cough, cough.
A third reason we will close down today: options expiration.
There are 2600 call options at the 9 & 9.5 strike, the option writers are not gonna let go of their shares, this will likely close just under/at $9.
Btw I sent an email to MGIC investor relations, they should have issued a PR regarding the S&P upgrade.
I will not be surprised at all if we close lower today. Don't get me wrong, I would love a serious bump, but the trading of the last weeks has left me with little confidence. Someone really doesn't want this breaking through the low 9's range, it has really been dying to break through but there is no support, always gets slapped back to around 9.
Add to that the big downward revision on GDP, and we can forget our bump today.
I sincerely hope I am wrong about the above, let's find out tonight!
Anyone know how we can contact Yahoo? As usual they're not gonna link to this story of the S&P upgrades, but when those idiots from the Motley Fool run their mouths, that immediately gets linked on the main MGIC page. Same fpr those idiotic "articles" from TheStreet.
You didn't understand the charts regarding that headline. If you look closer, you'll see that since 2010 the applications hover near the same range, with the lowest points during the winter, and highest points during the year. You'll also see the peak during 2012/2013 of refinance activity.
In essence, that headline you are quoting is complete rubbish, as we are at the same level we have been for the last 3 years, with seasonal ups and downs. Talk about doom & gloom, you seem to be falling for it.
We will likely not go back to those levels between 1996 & 2009, because anyone could get a mortgage at that time, and we see what that did to the economy. Less is more. Quality over quantity.
The key trends for MGIC & RDN is not about increasing their book of risk, it is about falling delinquencies, less foreclosures, and less reserves per delinquency. We will not see higher average volumes in written risk vs last year. It'll be a dip in refinancing, offset by increased market share from FHA.
Nice 400K+ share transaction at close, and daily volume was above average.
Doesn't look like individual investors, I don't know many people who spend nearly 4 mio in a transaction. I'll gladly be called "dumb" then! :)
Wow, with such great display of clearvoyance, you must be a billionaire, which begs the question: why are you here?
From 16 mio to 20 mio, is an increase of 25%, but in any case, this is great news, these type of institutions are here for the long haul, not like some of the hedgies that go in and out for a quick win, they don't understand the long term macro economics. Blackrock now holds 5.9% of shares outstanding? Awesome.
They mention in that report that they believe MTG is a sell. So this is nothing but a little piece to help their cause, has no real merit. They pulled the same stunt on earnings day last weak with that #$%$ article 'water logged and getting wetter'.
Bottom line, ignore anything you read on TheStreet & Motley Fool. Sometimes Seeking Alpha has good contributors, sometimes they are #$%$, so I regard them higher than the 2 above idiot outfits.
I was pondering yesterday if some funds were selling the last 2 trading days, but given the action today so far, they would be selling into the rise, and that's not happening. I think somehow advantage was taken of the fear of a big correction, which means longs would have been weak on conviction. Was taken down massively, pulling out all the stops, and now some big short can cover his position.
Pure conjecture but one has to wonder.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
MGIC Investment upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities
JMP Securities upgraded MGIC Investment following the Q4 earnings report citing an improved capital position. Price target raised to $10.50.
At the time of writing this post, yahoo overall EPS target is 10.25
Nice, can already see impact of upgrades that are coming our way, such as the FBR one.
Btw, I didn't have time to post yesterday, but for me it was crystal clear that the big news was all about the capital to risk ratio improvement, due to extending the reinsurance agreement. We are now at 15.8 and that tells me MTG is not only going to be well within new capital requirements, they plan on writing aggressively in next few years, as the lower risk ratio gives them ample flexibility.
It also tells me that any short that was hoping for another capital raise or dilution, sees their dreams collapse: at this point, barring an insanely tight new capital ratio policy, we will be covered for years to go. And there is still that 500 million or so at the parent company available before they would need to tap the markets.
Regarding the ER, I did expect a little bit better than their results, thought we'd come out slightly positive, definitely not negative. Didn't expect they'd actually post a million loss, but on a % basis, it's as good as breakeven, given the size of the pie.
My take away is:
In the worst quarter seasonally speaking, we are breakeven
Seasonality will improve for the next quarters
As long as economy improves, MTG should also improve
MTG is taking share from FHA & competitors
Most cost effective PMI
Most experienced team (average time in the company is what, 19 years?)
Folks, we may have quite possibly seen our last loss going forward for the next years, barring an economic downturn, barring an unforeseen event.
Would be good to know how Q1 usually stacks against Q4 in terms of seasonality, depending on that we may need to wait 1 more quarter until we reach a horizon with nothing but greens. Then there's also that outstanding tax issue, wish that would be resolved, it's the only thing that for me requires some caution, other than that, MTG is an absolute no-brainer: set it & forget it, look back in next years, and count those extra digits in your account.
Not sure what to expect tomorrow, since it is completely different from the last quarter where we were severely down during the last week before earnings day, and only had our jump up on the day of earnings.
Now we already had quite a nice run, not sure how much juice will be squeezed out tomorrow. On the other hand, we are only 6% higher right now than the high of last earnings day, so there should still be room to grow, if results and guidance are good.