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Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (INFI) Message Board

enrjrr 3 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 19, 2014 9:19 AM Member since: Apr 20, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Do the Math on CELG collaboration - Frothy here

    by enrjrr Nov 19, 2014 9:01 AM
    enrjrr enrjrr Nov 19, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    OK. All this information is accurate. My estimate of peak sales for AG-221 is the only area for debate. GLTA

  • I LOVE AGIO and their commitment to creating novel approaches to fighting cancer. They have now created two compelling drugs that will be important options in the treatment of a select group of AML patients. And I am a huge fan of David Schenkein. Amazing person committed to patients.

    That said, disciplined investors need to do the math on valuation. Again - I am a huge fan of the company, their products, and their people but there is some irrational exuberance here now.

    Market cap is $3B now. AG-221 has the largest set of data - and appears to be headed for breakthrough designation with the FDA. However, the rights to AG-221 - both U.S. and ex-US have ALREADY BEEN SOLD TO CELGENE. AGIO stands to receive high teen royalties on any future sales of this molecule. So, in an optimistic scenario - AG-221 becomes a $1B drug in AML only, and AGIO gets $150-$190M at peak.

    Ok. So now we have AG-120. This molecule has been retained by AGIO in the U.S. but ex-US rights have again been sold to CELG. Today's data shows that this drug - targeting a different metabolic protein - also works in AML. These two drugs will target two different subsets of AML - and importantly, will not be options for all patients but instead a defined population based on genetic factors. While the market remains sizable, it is not for 100% of AML patients.

    This is an AMAZING story - and great news for patients fighting cancer. And AGIO will be a winner. I have no position currently on the stock (long/short) but offering a realistic opinion on this stock as runaway train may be several years ahead of where a fair valuation should be. There is a reason that more than 50% of the shares are currently being short. Hedge funds understand the math too.

  • First side effect that could derail things....QTC Prolongation will be one to watch as more patients are enrolled.

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