12 year olds, hipsters, and 'adult children' love twitter - because its free.
Yet each user is valued by Mr. market at $100/per when the contribution of each is actually ZERO. I value a twitter user at about $0.25 to advertisers and as any veteran could tell you, never DEPEND on advertisers.
This is all hype, hype that will vanish in less than a month. Vonage IPO reborn!
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Hello oldtimer. I was talking a fair multiple on revenue. You brought up expenses, and I laughed at post 2008 GAAP rules changes. Admittedly tangential...
However if you wish, I invite you to read
GLOBAL LITHIUM AVAILABILITY:A CONSTRAINT FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES?
byPaul Gruber & Pablo Medina
(Natural Resources and Environment)
at the University of Michigan
...and consider adding to your model "what-if" lithium demand rises and the raw materials increase. What happens to your expenses if increases 50% to 200%. Perhaps you have already modeled these factors?
Have a nice day
I think it unwise to ignore the costs of increased insurance, raw materials (lithium), and customer support systems and structures.
Oh wait, of course we can ignore costs in the' new normal' post 2008 crash GAAP for pro-forma no mark to market accounting.
80k cars, huh? in 2016?
I can not imagine where enough lithium exists to support the manufacture of 80k cars annually without severely spiking the costs.
But hey 80k cars, sure, why not model around that?
After all Samsung has already said no to producing Tesla batteries
Exactly! Insurance companies will soon realize that even a fender bender can cause a fire and result in a total loss.
Without significant corrective action by Tesla, nobody will underwrite these cars - or the insurance premiums the electric costs will sum to greater than the gasoline mpg equivalent.
Here is some free math, should Tesla make and sell 40k cars per year (double what it is now, ignoring constraints) , it is reasonable to expect an annual revenue of $3.6 billion.
If the cap trades at 3x revenue, which is reasonable for an expanding business operating at a loss, a market cap of 10.8 billion is rational.
If there is no new issuance of stock, or other dilution, the price comes to 89 per share. This is more than twice the cap of Tesla prior to repaying the federal loan.
What price was that secondary?
What is Goldman suggesting a fair value for Tesla shares?
Why did Elon Musk suggest the stock is overvalued?
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Just because yahoo finance page shows debt as zero does not make it so. There is 2.6 billion in commitments to purchase coming due. Add in the $1B just taken on and the debt is at $3.6 billion.
Operations are burning cash and market share shrinking and the big picture is a continuing loss. Draw your own conclusions.
Make no mistake about it, JCP stock might go to a thousand tomorrow or perhaps on February 30th, but this company was killed several months ago, and reorg is the only path forward if the namesake is to continue.
Have a nice day.
Icahn family's House of Cards: Father-son drama over Netflix stake
" So Icahn agreed to make up for any lost profits by injecting money into funds run by his son and Schechter if their views are proven right and it turns out he sold the Netflix shares too soon, according to a regulatory filing which details the agreement.
When the CEO says liquidity will dry up and a reorganization will occur in 1H2014, including breaking of leases, he is saying BANKRUPTCY PROTECTION will be required to reorganize. Vendors do not care what some puppet denies hiring lawyers WHEN THEY ARE ALREADY ON RETAINER. The CEO has warned, vendors only care about getting paid, and that sometimes means forcing involuntary BANKRUPTCY while liquidity still exists. Buffet can take a hit as he knows reorganization will work, BUT ONLY AFTER THE BANKRUPTCY. That JCP is trading above $2 is AMAZING!
Product is no longer being shipped to JCP and demands for returns are being ignored. It could be any time now that the courts are petitioned for involuntary bankruptcy. Raiders took all they could and now the scraps will be fed to the dogs.
The FIRESALE will begin when Obama and Boehner discuss slashing green energy tax credits including, foe Tesla in specific, those credits for EV. AND the failure to break the dealership model reverses and expands to other states as they consider raising revenue by going dealership only.
The Federal tax credit of $7500 to purchasers of EV's has ZERO chance of surviving this budget and debt limit impasse. Superchargers credits can not be far behind (at the state level). Goodbye fluff demand!
The auto insurance industry depends on accidents much in the same manner as ambulance chasers. Without mandates and personal tort, the industry would die overnight. Millions of jobs would be lost and the economy would collapse.
Given this - why do people think that auto pilot would be allowed in this country?
PS - it has been two whole hours, isn't this stock due another upgrade?