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Herbalife Ltd. Message Board

entertainmentinvestlng 56 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2015 12:56 PM Member since: May 13, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Berkshire is now buying the shares

    by brett626 Aug 29, 2015 7:16 AM
    entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 29, 2015 12:56 PM Flag

    Yup, oil price has been set to go as high as $80 from here due to low capex by oil producers since last year.

  • Imagine there is a vending machine with 100+ different varieties of coffee/tea selection collaborated by OUTR and GMCR.

    No need to go to dunkin or starbucks for coffee where limited selection.

    Keep in mind, KO owns 16%+ of GMCR so if OUTR collaborates with GMCR, they can control the vending machine industry with KO selection as well.

    This can be a huge impact as much as Red Box!

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 27, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    it's about time - look at 1997, OPEC reduce the oil supply right after the oil trading at historical low.
    that reduction drove oil to hit $80.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 27, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    people log into FB for daily social activities while people log into LNKD for job opportunities - how often do people look for job in their lives? We all know that the average number of jobs per person in his/her career life is 5 to 7.

    Plus, LNKD is shared with his/her employers as well, so will they put themselves on LNKD saying that they were looking for job? Of course not.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 27, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    but tomorrow will be another day for TIF - their earning is getting impacted by asian market.
    TIF will follow WYNN stock move soon.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 27, 2015 12:27 AM Flag

    we all saw the outcome of tech bubble last few days - every time there is a bubble in the market, we get this massive pull back in short term.

    look at NFLX now - it's valued at $47B when it made about $192M which is 240x PE ratio. is it sustainable? People may say that NFLX would grow over 100% every year for next 5 years but I don't think that's a good assumption.

    First, NFLX model is now that they try to be content-generating company to increase demand but people are already used to getting free contents over YouTube and many other sites. Will people pay for their limited selection?

    Second, content-generating model slows down the business growth. Facebook/Uber/LinkedIn/Google do not generate contents. Every time a company tries to generate contents, it is targeting a small set of audience as people have different preference.

    Third, NFLX doesn't have enough cash to generate massive amount of contents. It has $2B cash but it also has $2B debt.

    Fourth, NFLX would do M&A to grow the business as content generation won't work well - but will it be able to raise massive amount of capital to take over big players? Of course not, it would issue shares to take over, i.e. dilution is inevitable.

    Again, content generating business model never works - scalability of web business is going to be ruined.

  • Keep in mind, in order for oil producers to pump out oil as schedule, there are capex schedules must be made - as oil price has been gone down so much on last October, almost all oil companies reduced their annual capex.

    Guess what? we are going to have lower supply level on next quarter and 2016 when OPEC would reduce their level as well. Remember 1997 when oil hit the bottom? OPEC reduced their level without notice. Same thing can be done from here.

  • Look at OTM call option prices - someone is intentionally pricing its call at $165+ on Jan 2015 with implied vol of 60% while the stock dropped from $130 to $100. I guess these guys are trying to corner call short sellers but as people short more at that price range, they would get bellied up.

    Who's backing this call prices? CBOE needs to take a look at it now.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 26, 2015 9:15 AM Flag

    Look at dividend history chart:
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=xom&ei=g7rdVfmkOtWzmAH-97m4CQ

    XOM never missed or lower its dividend since 1987.
    in 1987, it paid out $0.11/quarter.
    Now it pays out $0.73/quarter.

    Keep in mind, in 1997, the oil price was at $20 before it went to $80 range, XOM increased the dividend to $0.20/quarter then.

    This oil rumor stuff was from shorts trying to buy shares at cheap price. FYI, oil is at $40 and we know that supply has been dropped so much as oil companies cut off their growth capex on late 2014.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 26, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    in 1987, its dividend amount was $0.24/quarter
    in 2008 (financial crisis), its dividend amount was $0.43/quarter
    Now, its dividend amount is $0.55/quarter

    VZ is a cash cow business where its free cash flow is strong - think about how much we use cell phones both business and personal.

    At yesterday's price, it's dividend yield is 5%+. Given the company has been increasing the amount, this is one of the investments you want to have for long-term. Personally, I do DRIP so my dividend buys more shares of VZ.

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 24, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Cash balance has been growing so much and now it's sitting at $8.4B!!!

  • Reply to

    DNKN = Green

    by jayblake9589 Aug 24, 2015 12:28 PM
    entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 24, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    DNKN and GMCR both in GREEN... M&A???

  • Reply to

    Who is buying?

    by fdc17422000 Aug 24, 2015 1:55 PM
    entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 24, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    There should be something going on - the stock can't go this high without someone keeps buying all the shares from the market

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 24, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    when people try to save money, that will be the first step.

  • Did you know that they make money in distribution as well as production?
    Guess how they both were paying dividends regardless oil price historically.

  • entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 23, 2015 9:49 PM Flag

    They will be profitable for next 4 quarters - both company's revised projection and analysts' estimates are showing a turnaround.

    Major driver for SALE is the mobile app - they did +93% yoy growth

    personally, I see a M&A potential at this price level. Companies Groupon or Interactive would want to take it as Retailmenot can be used for their business lines.

  • entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 22, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Nope - DD cut their regular cash dividend as it "spinned off" CC for $3.9B cash. The company plans to issue a special cash dividend of $4 from the proceed.

    As for Chinese market, people should know this - in the past, Chinese economy was heavily relied on exports to build their foreign exchange reserve mainly US dollar to import resources they need. Now, they are sitting with about $4 Trillion in reserve while US has $19 Trillion in "debt". Also, China is now a self-sustainable economy - they don't import to export goods any more, they import to consume in their economy. I saw media as China was the same country about 20 years ago - during that period, US debt level has gone up from $3T (in 1997) to $19T (today) while China built $4 Trillion in reserve, i.e. if you compare two governments, China has $23 Trillion more than US.

    So, think about what's going to happen if Fed increase the rate, US dollar gets a higher valuation and China will get the upside on $4 Trillion while US pays higher to pay back on debts. Of course, US government will print much more since they don't money to pay the interest. Wonder why government never talks about US debt level?

    For me, this China's currency devaluation move is like Goldman Sachs in financial crisis - they are trying to make more money out of this situation. There has been a sell off everywhere but we all know that someone is buying at the same time - guess who's buying all the assets globally? If you have too much debt, would you buy?

    Don't forget about our Debt clock:
    http://www.usdebtclock.org/

  • $3.9B cash proceed from CC spinoff into their balance sheet would put this company in a great position. Very good move on DD before this market correction. By the year end, it should be a debt free company - perfect time when Fed considers to raise interest rate.

    You will see DD outperforming as other competitors getting into trouble with financials.

  • Reply to

    Why wouldn't a Google buy us?

    by jmedwick Aug 21, 2015 1:52 PM
    entertainmentinvestlng entertainmentinvestlng Aug 21, 2015 3:09 PM Flag

    because Google is in high tech

  • entertainmentinvestlng by entertainmentinvestlng Aug 21, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    the market dropped for china but in 1997, US had the major bull market that led into a tech bubble in 2000.

    i could be wrong but I think some company should take M&A deal.

HLF
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