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Cray Inc. Message Board

equitiesresearchdotcom 103 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 2, 2014 11:11 AM Member since: Aug 24, 2012
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  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Oct 2, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    There is really no upside to titan machinery. the company closed 8 locations this year and are carrying over $1 billion in debt. Titan machinery does not make anything. Titan is a retailer of equipment and machinery where they compete directly against the manufacturers Caterpillar, Deere, CNHI, etc.
    Titan just doesn't not have a good business model. the company would not be in business today had they not raised equity in an underwriting and debt in a second underwriting.
    With shares being held up here at $13 is what's wrong with the stock market. A company that is practically bankrupt that can trade at over a $200 million market cap because all the shares are being held tightly by mutual funds.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • TST: Risk/Reward

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Aug 16, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    sorry" timetireviewthisone", i made a typo. it should have been "find' not 'Fine'.
    good catch.
    i also noticed others typos. i wrote "right offs" instead of "write offs".....if you see other typos let me know. thanks again.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Aug 1, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    red flag near $30 a share

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 12, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    by increasing their net floor plan debt they were able to report a POSITIVE NON GAAP C/F number in Q1. Ridiculous? definitely.

    Management has an equity interest in Dealer Sites LLC. Titan recently increased their lease agreements with Dealer Sites from $50million to $100 million last year.
    Management is making money on properties, (thanks to Titan footing the bills).
    TItan pays for insurance and all expenses of the property although it is owned by outside entity owned by management.
    In FY 2012 and FY2013 the 10K disclosed the related party dealings in detail. In April's FY2014 10k , Deloitte allowed Titan to omit this disclosure.

    It appears to me that CNH was stuffing Titan with inventory these past few years to boost CNH's own revenue/profit numbers (timely with Fiat deal). The relationship with CNH is very Cozy. A large percentage of the inventory that Titan has parked, they are not paying interest on.

    Wells Fargo recently amended the convertible note terms for the 3rd time. (tightening the covenants more and more).
    Titan's debt/equity for Q1 increased from .70 to .716

    what does SOT mean?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    What PE multiple should TITN trade at?

    by larisalv Apr 11, 2014 12:55 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 12, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    Your question assumes TItan Machinery will even have any earnings in FY 2015?
    I question if Titan will even be profitable this year.
    THe company most recent reported Q1 they loss ($0.20) per share. THe quarter prior to that ,Q4, they loss money as well.

    We can't expect the management's guidance to mean anything.
    Management made the following Guidance for FY2014:
    On April 10,2013 gave guidance for FY2014 of $2.00-$2.30.
    1 month later on:
    On May 23,2013 guidance for FY2014 was lowered to $1.70-$2.00
    3months later on:
    On September 5,2013 guidance was lowered again to $1.20-$1.50

    When the year ended on January 31,2014 the FY2014 EPS came in @ $0.78 per share.

    Everyone needs to realize that this company has generated a total of NEGATIVE $434 MILLION of OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW over last 13 quarters combined.

    The Management is deceiving the Public by advertising NON GAAP cash flow. The only reason that that INSIGNIFICANT number was positive in this Q1 is because they ADD the monies they borrowed in the first quarter to cash flow. (that is why they allowed the floor plan debt to go up, so that they can make their NON GAAP cash flow number to be positive, how ridiculous)

    The other big issue here, is what are these Mutual Fund Analysts (Money Managers) getting paid for? Have you seen what ZACKS has been reporting? another joke.

    If you look on Morningstar at the list of institutional holders of both the Equity and the Debt, I wonder how do these decision makers have jobs? It is even more scary that mom and pop are trusting their nest egg monies with these amateurs (and they actually pay these funds to manage their money).

    Wall Street is a scary place

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    What PE multiple should TITN trade at?

    by larisalv Apr 11, 2014 12:55 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 12, 2014 9:02 AM Flag

    Your question assumes TItan Machinery will even have any earnings in FY 2015?
    I question if Titan will even be profitable this year.
    THe company most recent reported Q1 they loss ($0.20) per share. THe quarter prior to that ,Q4, they loss money as well.

    We can't expect the management's guidance to mean anything.
    Management made the following Guidance for FY2014:
    On April 10,2013 gave guidance for FY2014 of $2.00-$2.30.
    1 month later on:
    On May 23,2013 guidance for FY2014 was lowered to $1.70-$2.00
    3months later on:
    On September 5,2013 guidance was lowered again to $1.20-$1.50

    When the year ended on January 31,2014 the FY2014 EPS came in @ $0.78 per share.

    Everyone needs to realize that this company has generated a total of NEGATIVE $434 MILLION of OPERATIONAL CASH FLOW over last 13 quarters combined.

    The Management is deceiving the Public by advertising NON GAAP cash flow. The only reason that that INSIGNIFICANT number was positive in this Q1 is because they ADD the monies they borrowed in the first quarter to cash flow. (that is why they allowed the floor plan debt to go up, so that they can make their NON GAAP cash flow number to be positive, how ridiculous)

    The other big issue here, is what are these Mutual Fund Analysts (Money Managers) getting paid for? Have you seen what ZACKS has been reporting? another joke.

    If you look on Morningstar at the list of institutional holders of both the Equity and the Debt, I wonder how do these decision makers have jobs? It is even more scary that mom and pop are trusting their nest egg monies with these amateurs (and they actually pay these funds to manage their money).

    oh boy, Wall Street, what a silly place.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 5, 2014 12:37 PM Flag

    As a shareholder, wouldn't you like management to tell you in plain English: (I actually think there should be a law, if there's not one already, where management discloses there is a risk of bankruptcy if they fail to do X,Y,Z))

    By TITN increasing its Total Liabilities to $1.19 billion and the decline of its tangible book value by $6 million its within $10 million of violating its Debt to Tangible equity ration of 3.25 that it must meet by October of 2014. If it maintains the status quo it would be in violation of the 3.0 ratio that it must meet by January 2015

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 2, 2014 10:07 PM Flag

    well, the S-8 was just filed with SEC....sure enough $17.47 much better than $20+ .....management always fines a way to take care of themselves.Management 48% raises, equity, board members got raises too, ...real estate transactions with outside entities management have equity interest in....list goes on...that's why the EPS is a mere $8 million on $2 billion in sales....the stock going up these past few days will be setting the table for a big pay day on the short side.....amateur "call buyers are getting sucked in here bidding up the calls......collapse coming...I warned last year at $32 ..... this stock will break $14 this week and never return .......Q1 on thursday morning....there will $4.2 million right off against stores closing hitting the EPS....and on May 1st the nearly $3 million interest payment made against conv. note will also effect Q1 EPS......4 mutual funds own 42% of shares outstanding according to Morningstar.....why do these MF own a company valued over $300 million when the underlying business only earns $8 miilion for ttm ? ... 40 times earnings.....obsolete inventory will need to be given away at a loss in order for this company to generate any cash flow, which will be another hit to EPS...the roll up of sub par dealerships to grow has ended...as a matter of fact they closed stores 8 in Q4.....no longer a growth story......check out the new changed the Creditors put on the debt covenants......single digits coming

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom May 28, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    one possible answer to your question is that management wanted the shares lower heading into the shareholder meeting this week. This way if the equity plan is approved then they can grant themselves shares at a lower stock price and receive more shares.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    A Perfect Short

    by equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 20, 2014 4:15 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 26, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    the fool points to CNH relationship with TITN.
    CNH added revenue by selling Equipment to Titan. Titan bought the inventory on debt (floorplan debt to CNH) only to store the inventory on TITN's property. Titan is stuck with inventory and interest payments (to CNH) on inventory that is just sitting there.
    Why did titan stock up on inventory when its not selling what it already had? Was it because CNH needed to create sales? $1 billion in inventory is a lot of equipment to have laying around. Competing with manufacturers Deere, AGCO, CAT and CNH is going to make it hard to get rid of this equipment.

    lowering their eps estimates from $2.25 to $0.55-$0.75 for the year has still not been reflected in TITN's current stock price. At $16 shares are trading near a PE 30 (while earnings will decline well over 50% year over year

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 20, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Its unfortunate but TItan will not be able to generate enough cash flow to service all the debt that they have piled up.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jan 6, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Equities Research pick makes new 52 week high

  • Reply to

    management shakeup needed

    by mullam4444 Dec 5, 2013 5:08 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 1:34 PM Flag

    management has use of aircraft in which the Company has an ownership interest. Pretty expensive cost for a $300 million market cap company.

  • Reply to

    management shakeup needed

    by mullam4444 Dec 5, 2013 5:08 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 12:15 PM Flag

    i agree, but at this stage of game, even if management is replaced, the new management (the company) will still be on the hook for the long term lease agreements ($100 million) that were made with the outside entities that the current top execs have an interest in.
    Not sure there will be a long line of candidates who would want to run a company in the Heart of America selling foreign equipment and competing with American Made Manufacturers CAT & DE

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 10:56 AM Flag

    The business model of Titan Machinery can't really be compared to DE, CNH or CAT.
    DE,CNH and Cat are manufacturers with their own financing arms, while TITN is nothing more than a reseller. The space is under pressure and competition is fierce which is squeezing margins, more so on a reseller who has is at a major disadvantage against behemoth manufacturers.

    Titan's bigger problem is that their management has signed ridiculously high lease contracts with outside entities that they personally have interest in (over $100million). Just in the past 12 months alone they increased these contracts from $50 million to over $100million.) top execs make money with these outside entities make money even if titan doesn't do well.)

    The top two execs have also increased their annual salaries by 48% each this year.

    all the new construction TITN has been spending money on is bleeding the company and is really only profiting the top exec's brother-in-law who owns the construction company doing the building.

    the high debt is another obstacle. Its hard enough to earn a profit, paying nearly $6 million annually just on the Convertible Note alone is a major drain on the stockholders (profits).

    If you read the new Q3 10Q you'll see some last minute (desperate type) debt restructuring (extensions) they created.
    check out:
    NOTE 9.
    Item 2.
    Item 5.
    Exhibit 10.1
    Exhibit 10.2

    On the inventory front, the tractors building up in inventory are depreciating assets (and with the new technologies, GPS, Fuel friendly machines etc ) and favorable terms being offered by manufacturers to buy new equipment, the used equipment is becoming obsolete.

    Just look at the statement of cash flow and you'll see the results of a poor business model.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 19, 2013 1:30 PM Flag

    Equities Research remains bearish on Titan Machinery.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 18, 2013 11:09 AM Flag

    Equities Research Newsletter Pick @ $4 a share

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Oct 26, 2013 8:48 AM Flag

    getting it right

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Sep 6, 2013 11:17 AM Flag

    Titan Machinery EPS Falls 73%
    Titan Machinery Lowered Guidance for FY2014 from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.20-$1.50
    Q2 Operational Cash flow NEGATIVE $42 million

    EPS declined 73% 6 months
    FY2013 6 months : $0.60
    FY2014 6 months : $0.16

    EPS declined 28% Q2 vs Q2
    FY2013 Q2 : $0.25
    FY2014 Q2 : $0.18

    CASH declined $22 million
    January 31,2013 : $124 million (Accounts Payable $28 million)
    July 31,2013 : $102 million (Accounts Payable $39 million)

    Total Current Liabilities
    January 31,2013 : $804 million
    July 31,2013 : $969 million

    Total Long Term Liabilities
    January 31,2013: $239 million
    July 31,2013 : $264 million

    Net Income vs Operational Cash Flow
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 Net Income: $89 million
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 OP. Cash Flow: -($345 million)

    I would guess some of these analyst will have to bring their price targets lower with the new guidance.
    (In August 2013 William Blair lowered price target on $TITN to $15,)

    Some notes from today’s 10-Q which was filed this afternoon. I always wondered how analyst can sit on those conference calls without 10Q. ;)

    If interest rates go up 1% point over next 12-mo period it would decrease pre-tax earnings + CF approx $4.9 mil

    OPERATING EXPENSES Q2 $70 million up from $54 mil in year ago comp Q2 . 24% increase

    Long-term debt, less current maturities $82.6 million ...up from Q1 $58 million.....Total long-term liabilities increased $23million from Q1

    Q2 operational. Cash flow NEGATIVE $42million.

    Accounts Payable up $6 million from Q1 to $39 million. (that sure helped net income, cash flow and cash position (cough cough) lol

    Floor Plan Debt up $79 million from Q1 to $851 million

    Plus they added 136,000 more shares outstanding from Q1 to Q2 (although they didn't use the new number of S/O to calculate EPS for quarter.)

    Then the obvious of lowering guidance from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.2-$1.50

    EPS declined 73%
    FY2014 6 months : $0.16
    FY2013 6 months : $0.60
    (did I mention their accounts payable were $39 million (almost $2.00 a share)

CRAY
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