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Cray Inc. Message Board

equitiesresearchdotcom 117 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2016 4:03 PM Member since: Aug 24, 2012
  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 14, 2016 4:03 PM Flag

    TITN insiders sold at the right time

  • 10K filed yesterday.
    A 4th director is resigning as of yesterday's 10K.
    Titan Machinery Founder Resigned as a director last June and receives a severance agreement package in excess of $1.5 million as of February 1,2016.
    Titan sales have declined dramatically and losses are growing.
    This is no longer a growth story and should not be trading at a multiple.
    On January 31,2015 Company had $127 million cash.
    January 31,2016 cash position was $89 million.
    In April 2016 company spent $25 million on a debt payment reducing their cash position to less than $66 million.
    Titan has an outstanding note of $150 million with Wells Fargo due 2019.
    Discosure in 10K reveals that CNH is changing their agreements with their outside dealers.
    If CNH Industrial were to change the terms of our dealer agreements or its operating practices in a manner that adversely affects us, our business would be harmed.
    CNH has recently proposed a new format of its dealer agreement, to be applicable to all North American dealers. We have not commenced our negotiations with CNH in response to the proposed new agreement. We anticipate this process to commence within the next few weeks and be concluded in our second quarter of fiscal 2017.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Adidas or Under Armour?

    by equitiesresearchdotcom Feb 1, 2016 7:30 AM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Feb 1, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    I agree. I just think UA may be fully priced giving limited upside at these levels. thanks for reply.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Feb 1, 2016 7:30 AM Flag

    Is Under Armour Over Valued or is Adidas Undervalued?
    Adidas pays a dividend. Adidas owns Reebok and Taylor.
    Adidas has higher sales and trades at approx 1X sales.
    Under Armour trades at 3 X sales.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 28, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    $150 million convertible Wells Fargo (2019) $63.61 yield 18.56%
    FY2016 Q3 number comes out Thursday pre market. Fy2015 Q3 company net income was $2.4 million.

  • Reply to

    Warning from Equities Research

    by equitiesresearchdotcom Aug 24, 2012 3:32 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 18, 2015 10:22 AM Flag

    this was an old message post

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    Titan after hours.

    by moosie4242 Nov 17, 2015 6:24 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 17, 2015 9:11 PM Flag

    desperate attempt to probably prevent margin calls. Also keep in mind the high speculation on long side who are holding call options that expire in less than 72 hours that are at risk of being wiped out. More than meets the eye here. good catch on the AH painting

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 3, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    FY2016 Q1 + Q2 (6months)
    $229 Million Decline in Sales (Down 25%) . 6 months Revenue FY2016 $687 million down from 6 months Revenue FY2015 $916 million.

    6 months EPS loss ($0.29) , net income loss ($6,186,000) vs FY2015 6 months EPS loss ($0.31) , net income loss ($7,049,000)

    From July 31,2013 to July 31,2015 Total Stockholder Equity has declined by $34 million

    From January 31,2015 to July 31,2015 Balance Sheet : Customer Deposits has declined from $35 million to $15 million. 57% decline

    From January 31,2015 to July 31,2015 Balance Sheet : Cash has declined from $127 million to $95 million. 25% decline

    This is no longer a growth company. The company should not trade a fwd PE of more than 10. It trades meanwhile at a PE of 175

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 3, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Zacks ranks Titan Machinery Highest EBITDA to Debt Ratio
    :"Typically, this ratio is considered to be alarming when it
    is greater than 3.0 but this can vary and should be looked at
    within the context of the industry.Titan Machinery
    (NASDAQ:TITN) is highest with a debt to EBITDA ratio of
    25.2."
    From Morningstar: 6 of top 10 Institutions reduced their positions from April 1,2015 to June 30,2015.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom May 15, 2015 4:59 PM Flag

    Not bad. The Cow is not quite dry yet. That's $10,000 a week for next 33 months. If Titan didn't borrow the $150 million unsecured note in 2012 they would have ZERO CASH. They spend the money like they don't have to pay it back. The Chairman bragged recently that they average about $1.3 million in cash per location. What he failed to mention was that it is all borrowed monies that need to be paid back. Reality is that they don't even have enough cash to repay that $150 million note.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom May 12, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    My tuesday morning blog post is now available for details.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • from press release " Net loss attributable to common stockholders for fiscal 2015 was $31.6 million, or $1.51 per diluted share, compared to net income attributable to common stockholders of $8.7 million, or $0.41 per diluted share, for the prior year."

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    890K Trade

    by falcn00 Feb 12, 2015 6:48 AM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Feb 17, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    they deleted my reply...oh boy....my comments must have hit a nerve....the truth is getting to them...means the end is getting closer

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    890K Trade

    by falcn00 Feb 12, 2015 6:48 AM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Feb 13, 2015 7:41 AM Flag

    it's all rigged....why does Invesco Canada need to own 18% of shares outstanding? Invesco advisors another 10% of s/o ? Fidelity 15% ? Huber 9% ? Black Rock and Towe nearly 5 % each?

    Ridiculous. stock is just totally boxed. Wells Fargo is the real goose in all this. WFC raised the $150 million bond and cleaned up on the underwriting fees when they knew this company's underlying business had negative cash flow and would never be able to repay bondholders their money. The only reason TITAN needed to borrow the money in the first place was because they were doomed.....if the company was any good they wouldn't have need to raise capital...and WFC needs #$%$ companies to raise money for so they can generate the fees.....WFC doesn't make underwriting fees on viable businesses because those good businesses don't need the capital.... WFC has continuously amended the BOND almost every quarter to just keep the "shell game" going....with no amendments ...stock would be at ZERO long time ago......WFC doesn't care if bond is repaid any more...they don't own hardly any. they sold the bonds at $100 ....and the other mutual funds and institutions who bough the bonds at $100 are sitting with their bonds priced at $72 ....going to ZERO

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 15, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    Titan Machinery $150 million convertible Bond (2019) closed the week at a NEW ALL TIME LOW @ $72.00 w 12.18% yield.
    Also last week Titan disclosed in their 10Q footnote section that Wells Fargo made a 5th amendment to the bond covenants.
    A bond with less than 5 years to maturity yielding over 12% is a high risk investment. The novice investors should realize that the common stock is RISKIER than the Bond, and the bond is extremely risky.
    The bond market tell is that this company is in risk of defaulting, high risk.....else why wouldn't smart money be bidding the bond higher?
    only reason common stock isn't at $2 is because the shares are controlled by a handful of mutual funds who are asleep at the wheel. The question is are the mutual funds going to dump it here for year end tax loss purposes.....will they hold it so they don't show losses.......or are they just have no buyers for their shares above $5 so they just simply hold it and ride it out.......
    It looks like Titan longs will be okay until the company files bankruptcy...not sure how soon, but that is a big risk to common shareholders and bond holders.

    TO the longs who think this company has cash of $100 million, they have over $1 billion in debt also and negative cash flow for 5 consecutive years. They can no longer do an underwriting because of high debt levels.
    They have no options left.

    If they paid some of their bills/debt they would be depleted of ALL Cash and still still have $1 billion worth of debt on their books.
    I guess once stock gets delisted or goes to pink sheet the company would get a new ticker w like TITNQ or TITNPK or something....then this message board will go away too

    A bigger risk for management is the related party transactions. The board members are pretty much all related and they have a $100million agreement that they made between the company and an outside entity they have an equity interest in..(really smells)..plus over $20 million construction fees to another relative

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Oct 2, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    There is really no upside to titan machinery. the company closed 8 locations this year and are carrying over $1 billion in debt. Titan machinery does not make anything. Titan is a retailer of equipment and machinery where they compete directly against the manufacturers Caterpillar, Deere, CNHI, etc.
    Titan just doesn't not have a good business model. the company would not be in business today had they not raised equity in an underwriting and debt in a second underwriting.
    With shares being held up here at $13 is what's wrong with the stock market. A company that is practically bankrupt that can trade at over a $200 million market cap because all the shares are being held tightly by mutual funds.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • TST: Risk/Reward

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Aug 16, 2014 8:34 AM Flag

    sorry" timetireviewthisone", i made a typo. it should have been "find' not 'Fine'.
    good catch.
    i also noticed others typos. i wrote "right offs" instead of "write offs".....if you see other typos let me know. thanks again.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Aug 1, 2014 2:12 PM Flag

    red flag near $30 a share

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jun 12, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    by increasing their net floor plan debt they were able to report a POSITIVE NON GAAP C/F number in Q1. Ridiculous? definitely.

    Management has an equity interest in Dealer Sites LLC. Titan recently increased their lease agreements with Dealer Sites from $50million to $100 million last year.
    Management is making money on properties, (thanks to Titan footing the bills).
    TItan pays for insurance and all expenses of the property although it is owned by outside entity owned by management.
    In FY 2012 and FY2013 the 10K disclosed the related party dealings in detail. In April's FY2014 10k , Deloitte allowed Titan to omit this disclosure.

    It appears to me that CNH was stuffing Titan with inventory these past few years to boost CNH's own revenue/profit numbers (timely with Fiat deal). The relationship with CNH is very Cozy. A large percentage of the inventory that Titan has parked, they are not paying interest on.

    Wells Fargo recently amended the convertible note terms for the 3rd time. (tightening the covenants more and more).
    Titan's debt/equity for Q1 increased from .70 to .716

    what does SOT mean?

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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