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Cray Inc. Message Board

equitiesresearchdotcom 93 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 26, 2014 2:34 PM Member since: Aug 24, 2012
  • Reply to

    A Perfect Short

    by equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 20, 2014 4:15 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 26, 2014 2:34 PM Flag

    the fool points to CNH relationship with TITN.
    CNH added revenue by selling Equipment to Titan. Titan bought the inventory on debt (floorplan debt to CNH) only to store the inventory on TITN's property. Titan is stuck with inventory and interest payments (to CNH) on inventory that is just sitting there.
    Why did titan stock up on inventory when its not selling what it already had? Was it because CNH needed to create sales? $1 billion in inventory is a lot of equipment to have laying around. Competing with manufacturers Deere, AGCO, CAT and CNH is going to make it hard to get rid of this equipment.

    lowering their eps estimates from $2.25 to $0.55-$0.75 for the year has still not been reflected in TITN's current stock price. At $16 shares are trading near a PE 30 (while earnings will decline well over 50% year over year

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Mar 20, 2014 4:15 PM Flag

    Its unfortunate but TItan will not be able to generate enough cash flow to service all the debt that they have piled up.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Jan 6, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Equities Research pick makes new 52 week high

  • Reply to

    management shakeup needed

    by mullam4444 Dec 5, 2013 5:08 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 1:34 PM Flag

    management has use of aircraft in which the Company has an ownership interest. Pretty expensive cost for a $300 million market cap company.

  • Reply to

    management shakeup needed

    by mullam4444 Dec 5, 2013 5:08 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 12:15 PM Flag

    i agree, but at this stage of game, even if management is replaced, the new management (the company) will still be on the hook for the long term lease agreements ($100 million) that were made with the outside entities that the current top execs have an interest in.
    Not sure there will be a long line of candidates who would want to run a company in the Heart of America selling foreign equipment and competing with American Made Manufacturers CAT & DE

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Dec 11, 2013 10:56 AM Flag

    The business model of Titan Machinery can't really be compared to DE, CNH or CAT.
    DE,CNH and Cat are manufacturers with their own financing arms, while TITN is nothing more than a reseller. The space is under pressure and competition is fierce which is squeezing margins, more so on a reseller who has is at a major disadvantage against behemoth manufacturers.

    Titan's bigger problem is that their management has signed ridiculously high lease contracts with outside entities that they personally have interest in (over $100million). Just in the past 12 months alone they increased these contracts from $50 million to over $100million.) top execs make money with these outside entities make money even if titan doesn't do well.)

    The top two execs have also increased their annual salaries by 48% each this year.

    all the new construction TITN has been spending money on is bleeding the company and is really only profiting the top exec's brother-in-law who owns the construction company doing the building.

    the high debt is another obstacle. Its hard enough to earn a profit, paying nearly $6 million annually just on the Convertible Note alone is a major drain on the stockholders (profits).

    If you read the new Q3 10Q you'll see some last minute (desperate type) debt restructuring (extensions) they created.
    check out:
    NOTE 9.
    Item 2.
    Item 5.
    Exhibit 10.1
    Exhibit 10.2

    On the inventory front, the tractors building up in inventory are depreciating assets (and with the new technologies, GPS, Fuel friendly machines etc ) and favorable terms being offered by manufacturers to buy new equipment, the used equipment is becoming obsolete.

    Just look at the statement of cash flow and you'll see the results of a poor business model.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 19, 2013 1:30 PM Flag

    Equities Research remains bearish on Titan Machinery.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Nov 18, 2013 11:09 AM Flag

    Equities Research Newsletter Pick @ $4 a share

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Oct 26, 2013 8:48 AM Flag

    getting it right

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Sep 6, 2013 11:17 AM Flag

    Titan Machinery EPS Falls 73%
    Titan Machinery Lowered Guidance for FY2014 from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.20-$1.50
    Q2 Operational Cash flow NEGATIVE $42 million

    EPS declined 73% 6 months
    FY2013 6 months : $0.60
    FY2014 6 months : $0.16

    EPS declined 28% Q2 vs Q2
    FY2013 Q2 : $0.25
    FY2014 Q2 : $0.18

    CASH declined $22 million
    January 31,2013 : $124 million (Accounts Payable $28 million)
    July 31,2013 : $102 million (Accounts Payable $39 million)

    Total Current Liabilities
    January 31,2013 : $804 million
    July 31,2013 : $969 million

    Total Long Term Liabilities
    January 31,2013: $239 million
    July 31,2013 : $264 million

    Net Income vs Operational Cash Flow
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 Net Income: $89 million
    Trailing 10 quarters ending July 31,2013 OP. Cash Flow: -($345 million)

    I would guess some of these analyst will have to bring their price targets lower with the new guidance.
    (In August 2013 William Blair lowered price target on $TITN to $15,)

    Some notes from today’s 10-Q which was filed this afternoon. I always wondered how analyst can sit on those conference calls without 10Q. ;)

    If interest rates go up 1% point over next 12-mo period it would decrease pre-tax earnings + CF approx $4.9 mil

    OPERATING EXPENSES Q2 $70 million up from $54 mil in year ago comp Q2 . 24% increase

    Long-term debt, less current maturities $82.6 million ...up from Q1 $58 million.....Total long-term liabilities increased $23million from Q1

    Q2 operational. Cash flow NEGATIVE $42million.

    Accounts Payable up $6 million from Q1 to $39 million. (that sure helped net income, cash flow and cash position (cough cough) lol

    Floor Plan Debt up $79 million from Q1 to $851 million

    Plus they added 136,000 more shares outstanding from Q1 to Q2 (although they didn't use the new number of S/O to calculate EPS for quarter.)

    Then the obvious of lowering guidance from $1.70-$2.00 down to $1.2-$1.50

    EPS declined 73%
    FY2014 6 months : $0.16
    FY2013 6 months : $0.60
    (did I mention their accounts payable were $39 million (almost $2.00 a share)

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Sep 6, 2013 11:13 AM Flag

    M Partners Downgrades Titan Machinery ($TITN) to Hold

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom May 23, 2013 1:14 PM Flag

    Equities Research reiterates: STRONG BUY

    EGHT finished the year with $52 million in cash (and marketable securities) and NO DEBT.

    Operational Cash Flow for the year improved to $31.8 million for FY2013 up from $9.2 million in FY2012

    $22 million improvement, 245% increase
    FY2013 $0.42 operational cash flow per share
    75 million shares outstanding times $7.37 per share = $552 million market cap
    $552 mkt cap - $52 million in cash = $500 million mkt (less cash)
    $500 mkt cap divided by $31.8 million CF = 16 times operational cash flow (on trailing tm numbers)

    6 analysts on $EGHT Call. Will any Upgrade or downgrade or stay where they are? #sidoti #williamblair #dougherty #northland #craighallum

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom May 15, 2013 1:48 PM Flag

    wall street journal online article from last week about hte couple that at one time used dynavox. not sure if the link will work. but if u google dynavox in wsj from may 8th you'll find it.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130508-917185.html

  • Reply to

    Earnings

    by apache5thcomm May 9, 2013 4:17 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom May 9, 2013 8:04 PM Flag

    the new Stratasys (post merger) already reported financials as a combined company in the last SEC filing.
    Together the new entity reported $1.4 Million in operating cash flow for the full year year 2012. (Stock is trading nearly 2300 times Cash Flow.)

    Carrying $822 million of GOODWILL is another great line item. (or how about the HALF BILLION DOLLAR increase in INTANGIBLE assets?)

    All the hype and fluff every where you turn, but at the end of the day its the financials that matter. It may see $94 again with all the bulls out there, but eventually it won't live up to the hype at these levels.
    It will one day be a "dime a dozen" product that you can buy at walmart from some little competitor. THe company makes it sound like the NEXT APPLE on the NEEDHAM Conference during the 1st quarter.
    I doubt everyone will "have to have" a 3D printer any time soon.

    These 2 companies really needed one another. SSYS probably told OBJET, we'll value you at $1 billion if you don't mind us valuing ourselves at $1.2 billion. (we get a premium because we're a public company).

    Only problem now is OBJET shareholders will need to get liquid. 6 month period is over (December 3rd 2012 was close of deal).
    I would guess SSYS will do an underwriting (like DDD just announced)) soon. (I mean that's how wall street keeps their lights on, raising money for hot hyped up sectors). Janney Montgomery initiating a buy this afternoon shows they are probably jockeying for position to get a slice of a deal.
    Brokerage Firms aren't focusing (highlighting) on the statement of cash flow because it will make it harder to float a deal (raise capital) at these lofty levels.

    SSYS is no DDD.
    DDD has significant operating cash flow (enough to grow internally).
    SSYS NEEDS an underwriting because the EARNINGS QUALITY is so poor.

  • Reply to

    stock -split

    by chkbil May 6, 2013 8:19 PM
    equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom May 7, 2013 7:06 AM Flag

    there's a good chance stock goes to $41 without splitting, the financials get reported Monday, that may be enough

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • equitiesresearchdotcom by equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 25, 2013 12:28 PM Flag

    On March 4,2013 an investor filed a Form 3-A with SEC disclosing he owned 999,144 shares of DVOX.
    On April 23,2013 the same investor filed a Form 13-G A with SEC disclosing that he now has ZERO shares.

    WOW. I wonder if he sold at $0.70 or under $0.30.
    I think the latter because if he would have sold at the high prices he may have had to file the 13-G A sooner because shares were above $0.50 weeks ago.

    In any event , the underlying business still generated operational cash flow and has cash based on teir most recent 10Q filing.

    Wonder if company will comment their plans about moving forward regarding trying to get listed again?

    If it was a private company , this business i would think be would worth more than its $4.7 million market cap. Unless there is no future whatsoever, which in that case , $0.15 would be way over valued.

    don't know. that makes a market.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 11, 2013 8:18 AM Flag

    I'm a sticler for details and after learning the top 2 execs own in part the entity Dealer Sites LLC, i dug a little deeper and found this article.
    ONly problem is i can't find this transaction in any SEC disclosure. Don't know if TITN made a profit or lost money on this transaction? this is really too close for comfort IMO

    from StarTribune:
    6340 E. County Road 101, Shakopee

    Price: $2,476,734 Filing date: 7/28/2011

    Seller: Titan Machinery Inc. Buyer: Dealer Sites LLC

    Property ID: 271030010

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 11, 2013 7:41 AM Flag

    the more of the 10K I read, the worse it gets.
    10K discloses top 2 Execs both raised annual salaries from $330k to $500k.

    TITN lease 46 of 93 stores from entity owned in part by same top 2 Execs. $50million plus in lease contracts

    from 10K: We extend credit to our customers, generally on an unsecured basis...if a large number of customers should have financial difficulties ....our credit losses ...operating results would be adversely affected. . delinquencies and credit losses generally would be expected to increase if there was a slowdown in the economic recovery or worsening of economic conditions

    ......in the event of a fundamental change, as defined in the ($150million) Indenture, the holders of the Convertible Notes may require us to purchase all or a portion of their notes for cash at a purchase price equal to 100% of the principal amount of notes to be purchased, plus accrued and unpaid interest.

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 10, 2013 11:38 AM Flag

    typo...should be "not" allowing

  • equitiesresearchdotcom equitiesresearchdotcom Apr 10, 2013 11:16 AM Flag

    they did get financings. $125 million long term note (received last year). they also have floorPlan debt. FloorPlan Payables increased by $137million to $689million. up 25% yoy.
    the only reason they are sitting on $124 million in cash is because they borrowed $125million.(which is a long term liability).

    As far as increasing sales are concerned: Negative Operational Cash Flow is the result of sales on credit. Favorable credit terms to the buyers creates sales. Making sales is great, waiting forever to get paid for the product from the buyer is what counts. (or in this case not counting).

    if you go to their shop today and buy $100k tractor with no money (or little money down), they will report 100K in revenue, 18K in profit (income), but because you only gave them a nickel , then they didn't receive any operational cash flow from you. you walk away with a $100k product and they don't get barely any cash from you. what happens if your small business suffers and you can't make payment? they are beat.

    Obama and the Banks are killing small business owners and banks are allowing anyone to get credit . its trickling down and trickling up. it sucks. TITN's tractor sales are like the housing bubble where people with subprime mortgages never paid for their houses and ended up foreclosing.

    i don't wish ill-will on any of these folks, its just the state of the economy.

    all there acquisitions may have all been suffering the same way. its sad. its unfortunate. i am not happy about it. i just warning people who only read the income statements and sales number and don't read the balance sheet and statement of cash flow.

CRAY
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