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Olin Corp. Message Board

equity_360 158 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 11, 2014 8:58 PM Member since: Mar 29, 2013
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  • equity_360 by equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    Add some earnings, add some ebitda, it all helps the pps.

    REMINGTON,
    SAVAGE,
    WINCHESTER,
    SPRINGFIELD.

    PICK ONE.

    CASH OF 75 million plus $68 million in the bank. Stock buybacks are over...

  • Reply to

    What are they borrowing another $75M for?

    by jctuttle14 Jul 11, 2014 2:38 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    They dont need working capital. And thats the point. They are going to do something with the cash, and that is that.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Wrong again. 9 mm is on the way out. New standards in place. Do a little reading and you will find recent info to that effect.

    Its not that army contracts are soooo low margin, its just not as high as many would think. The advantage to having a multi year government contract is that they do provide steady production, gross margin, and offset to overhead.. It makes profitability on existing product lines easier to achieve. And do not forget about the marketing aspects....

  • Industry day on july 29....m&p is a frontrunner.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    No, Dat. I think if they were going to increase stock buybacks, it would have been announced. They included buybacks as one use of funds for the new 75 million, because its just general language. There is only 15,000,000 left for buybacks, no more. Capex is all but done, dat. They loaded up but good with automated flexible cnc equipment... If you ask me they are geared for an acquisition.

    If goldman wanted out, he would have sold at $17.... His end game is much higher.

    As to whom could be acquired? Savage, remington, winchster, springfield, you name it, its all either buying or being bought at this point. Sellers hopes are being moderated.

    Now, if that doesnt make you giddy enough, if swhc falls lower, it too will become an acquisition target, its getting into that zone right now....

  • unless swhc announces a new round of buybacks, its obvious they will make a huge acquisition... soon.
    Last I checked, there was less than $15 million left authorized for buybacks.....

  • Folks this is the time in a cycle (both in the gun space and in the larger market), that players wake up and realize that while times have been great, it might be time to either eat or be eaten. Acquisition targets have eschewed acquirers either outright or via demands for higher pricing. Some of the weaker players took advantage of the great times to shore up their balance sheets, pay debt, build their brands etc... and now may be ready to peddle themselves....

    SWHC is caught in this as well. Gun demand is softening and SWHC cannot merely sit at the sidelines and smile whilst revenues soften. Stock buybacks at these levels have a marginal effect, and cost the company dearly in leverage. Note that SWHC did not increase the buyback allocation.....

    I will expect acquisition news soon. Remington just settled a large class action over the model 700. SWHC needs to have a greater presence in the hunting space and I think Debney and Company can work wonders with making money on rifles and other long guns. REMINGTON has made NO EFFORT in entering the handgun space, with only a token move, years late, with the R51. Fienberg and Company might be angling to 'get while the gettin' is good" - after all, they were able to benefit from the gun boom as well... The equity funds such as Cerberus have not been very successful in getting full potential out of their holdings, mostly because they are entirely inept at managing the manufacturing process.

    Take note there are other brands out there that will be interested in selling. Springfield is getting punished brutally by SWHC and may be willing to throw in the towel. Springfield is more of an assembler, and that is why their pricing is higher - they are paying profit to all the manufacturers. SWHC can manufacture those guns and realize value that Springfield never could. Now SWHC also has plastic injection in-house, so perhaps SWHC is looking to double down on their plastic capabilities...

  • Getting the non-sport version soon. Ive been looking into the ars and think Smith has a very high quality rifle without jumping to the $2000 point. Rock River has some good qualities, but Smith fit and finish is excellent.

  • equity_360 by equity_360 Jul 3, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    June 2014 1,383,000
    June 2013 1,281,000
    May 2014 1,485,000
    May 2013 1,436,000

    June down form May, but not as much as last year!!! Go Barry, Go!

  • Rharris started a great thread on stock buybacks - and INDEED its worth of attention.

    Stock buybacks - At the current PPS, the stock buyback effect is muted as a relatively small number of shares will be bought back (the efect on total remaining outstanding is miniscule), WHILE at the same time, the company is spending a very valuable asset C-A-S-H for the buyback. IN THE PRESENCE of DEBT, WHICH cost the company $1.8 million per quarter or $7.2 million a year (THATS 12 cents a share ANNUALLY!!)..

    PAY OFF THE F%$#@ debt IF YOU FEEL SO BAD ABOUT HAVING ALL THAT CASH IN YOUR POCKET!

    I am looking into the future and think that despite recent strength, there may be some weakness in PPS coming up.... was at the gun store this weekend and saw that all the showcases were stacked with pistolas, there were heaps of 9 and 40 ammo, still no 22s, there was a wall full of ARs, but THERE WERE NO 9mm SHIELDS AVAILABLE.

    Divvies - I am agnostic. I do think that a minor dividend would help the PPS as the analysts would have a number to plug into the intrinsic value calculation - even if it were just a ten cent annual divvy.

  • Fiscal year ended April 2014 was a record for Smith and Wesson. You'd expect the after sucha boom year that sales would fall back considerably. No so. Swhc is projecting $600 million in sales and already has their first quarter in the bag. Earnings will be strong. The company stock is undervalued compared to ruger and the larger market... Price targets of $18-20 are still valid....

  • Reply to

    What's changed at SWHC....

    by libertee4all Jun 23, 2014 12:54 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jun 25, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    There is no 'big decline in forward estimates'. You are looking at consensus estimates by analysts... Sales are still going to be strong, earnings still strong. Swhc will continue to build its cash hoard

  • Swhc is undervalued at these levels.... Have not yet seen the margin kicker from the polymer acquisition...that acquisition closed May 20, so none of it is in the numbers reported. $68 million in cash, even after paying for descretionary capex, and capex that made the cost structure very flexible.

    Datbe/libertee/lllorac hard at it again asserting gloom and doom. Recall the dilutive secondary that never happened?

  • Reply to

    What's changed at SWHC....

    by libertee4all Jun 23, 2014 12:54 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jun 24, 2014 8:45 AM Flag

    You got it buddy. Got to know where the message is coming from.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jun 24, 2014 8:38 AM Flag

    Warranty is miniscule expense. Smith has always offered waranties and has had a good experience rate. Warranties are good business and build brand loyalty nd customer satisfaction.. I would fault any manufacturer or not offering a warranty.

    Still waiting for the dilutive secondary.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jun 23, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    No dog in the fight...... But now its warranty expenses. Hmmm sounds like you are reaching, dat.

    Warranty is Minimal.... Its a minute percentage and usually winds up being a brand builder...

    Wwwweh... Now you dredge up TC AND MSRs.. Always a minute part of the mix..... You are really reaching, dat....

    No dog in the fight?

  • Taking market share from glock and springfield, and now that the shield is in high gear, also taking market share from all the other subpar brands.

    Margins are headed up with plastics acquisition.

    New products coming on line soon.

  • Reply to

    What's changed at SWHC....

    by libertee4all Jun 23, 2014 12:54 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jun 23, 2014 7:54 PM Flag

    Sour? "I'm not making anything out of anything"

  • Reply to

    What's changed at SWHC....

    by libertee4all Jun 23, 2014 12:54 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jun 23, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    They haven't yet gotten the full benefit of the plastic acquisition.

  • OMG!!! Sky is falling. Sky is falling...

OLN
26.13+0.16(+0.62%)Jul 11 4:01 PMEDT

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