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Olin Corp. Message Board

equity_360 124 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Mar 29, 2013
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  • equity_360 equity_360 Oct 13, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    You know your ARs. The colt 6920 has 1-7 rifling, while the smiths do not. Most, incl freedoms products are 1-8. Dpms might offer a standard 1-7. That colt is a nice AR.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Oct 12, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Tell that to the shorts. I doubt there are any significant longs on margin. The time for longs to be on margin was back in the 7s and 8s, and there were many longs on margin then. It is difficult to think that at this time in the cycle that someone, or a significant number of someones, would go #$%$ with their borrowing ability. I would say that a short would be more prone to be using leverage than a long, at this time.

    So no, dont contemplate some massive convergence of margin calls on longs. That train left the station last quarter.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Oct 12, 2014 3:16 PM Flag

    Still a heck of a deal

  • Reply to

    Colt defence inventory tunrover.... uh oh

    by equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 12:21 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 9:12 PM Flag

    They have to be hurting this quarter. AR sales waaaay down everywhare i go. The gander mountain guy almost jumped when i asked to see a 6920

  • equity_360 equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    That may be very true. Gun shops have tons, but still no 9mm shields

  • equity_360 equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 7:31 PM Flag

    I do not know how debney computes turnover. My calcs might be low as i am including the total cost of sales number. However it is consistent. Where does the 65 day number come from?

  • OK, now lets look at colt defence:

    Avg Inv (millions$) (Beg/End)
    12/11---33.9
    12/12---38.3
    12/13---53.6

    Cost of sales (millions$)
    12/11---143.5
    12/12---162.2
    12/13---193.7

    TURNOVER times per year
    12/11---4.2x---106days
    12/12---4.2x---85days
    12/13---3.6x---100days

  • Reply to

    NO FOLLOW THROUGH...

    by libertee4all Oct 9, 2014 10:26 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    ha,,, I busted a stitch on that! check out post on Colt inventory levels....

  • So, in reaction to the dweeb that did the drive-by hit on inventory levels, I offer the following:

    Avg Inv (millions$) (Beg/End)
    4/12---53.5
    4/13---59.2
    4/14---74.9

    Cost of sales (millions$)
    4/12---412
    4/13---588
    4/14---627

    TURNOVER times per year
    4/12---7.7x---46days
    4/13---9.9x---36days
    4/14---8.4x---42days

    NOTHUN TO SEE HERE!

  • Reply to

    NO FOLLOW THROUGH...

    by libertee4all Oct 9, 2014 10:26 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 9, 2014 10:43 AM Flag

    Hey. Life isn't all lobster tails and blough-jobs.

  • Reply to

    Cabela's

    by rabies_00 Oct 6, 2014 1:28 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 7, 2014 6:52 AM Flag

    Colt also represents about $200 million in annual sales. Swhc or ruger would be the best suitors for colt. Freedom group already has too many brands and not enough talent to go around. I agree that colts facilties are probably in the toilet, due to weak finances, but i would close those down and move production to more modern plants.

  • Reply to

    Striker fire vs double action/single action.

    by libertee4all Oct 6, 2014 3:03 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 6, 2014 8:49 PM Flag

    I have trained in this method,,,extensively. No problem, delay. Just remember push the gun and dont pull the slide,

    This is a great tradeoff for striker fired pistols without any safety. A no brainer.

  • Reply to

    Striker fire vs double action/single action.

    by libertee4all Oct 6, 2014 3:03 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 6, 2014 7:18 PM Flag

    They will train like the israelis do with striker fired weapons. No round in chamber, pull the slide when needed.

  • Reply to

    Cabela's

    by rabies_00 Oct 6, 2014 1:28 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 6, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    I think if swhc put colts volume through the swhc plants and process, there would be a profitable entity to consider. I think swhc can do it better than colt. In that instance, it makes sense for swhc to buy colt.

  • Reply to

    Coincidence in the Military

    by rabies_00 Oct 2, 2014 5:52 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 6, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    I agree with the PR idea. I have mixed feelings whether a military contract would enhance civilian demand remarkably. Some, but nothing to write home about. The biggest plus would be in how wall street and the investors in it would regard swhc. There would be a definite positive upgrade ... Not to mention the POP the pps would get on day one.

    While debney has always said the military contract wasnt all that profitable, the volume would certainly offset alot of fixed factory overhead.... And that is a big thing.

  • Reply to

    Cabela's

    by rabies_00 Oct 6, 2014 1:28 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Oct 6, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Vkncaa, agreed and pardon the interruption. The pre-sandy hook numbers are a good base. Sandy hook was december 2012. Swhcs fiscal year end was april 2013. Despite sandy hook taking place in the fiscal year, swhc had nothing to sell , as did all the other arms makers, just normal inventory. The market share was temporarily lost to the likes of taurus, bersa, stoeger, charter, and a whole raft of tier two gun makers. As production levels came on line months later, swhc found itself gobbling up share as gun buyers were busy in the interim doing research and also unable to get a glock. Swhc had some luck there.... No gun maker could have estimated the demand onslought, but swhc took advantage of the opportunity,,, they certainly were prepared with a product that the market wanted, just did not have enough gats to go around.

    Subject 2:
    I often argue that swhc should be looking at acquisitions to replace falling demand. I think swhc is preparing at least for the potential with their accordian credit facility..... What to do with cash, either continue buying back stock, or buy another company. Colt may? likely file a chapter 11 in the coming weeks, months and their assets will be in play, if not already. Freedom group has recently increased their borrowing power, so they too may be contemplating a run for the colt assets. Recall swhc has not announced additional buybacks, yet and i dont think they will until someone else wins the damsel colt.

  • Jul 03, 2014 | by Matthew Cox

    The U.S. Army is moving forward to replace the Cold War-era M9 9mm pistol with a more powerful handgun that also meets the needs of the other services.

    As the lead agent for small arms, the Army will hold an industry day July 29 to talk to gun makers about the joint, Modular Handgun System or MHS.

    The MHS would replace the Army's inventory of more than 200,000 outdated M9 pistols and several thousand M11 9mm pistols with one that has greater accuracy, lethality, reliability and durability, according to Daryl Easlick, a project officer with the Army's Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Ga.

    "It's a total system replacement -- new gun, new ammo, new holster, everything," Easlick said.

    The Army began working with the small arms industry on MHS in early 2013, but the effort has been in the works for more than five years. If successful, it would result in the Defense Department buying more than 400,000 new pistols during a period of significant defense-spending reductions.

    Army weapons officials maintain that combat troops need a more effective pistol and ammunition. But experts from the law-enforcement and competitive shooting worlds argue that tactical pistol ammunition -- no matter the caliber -- is incapable of stopping a determined adversary without multiple shots in most cases.

    One of the major goals of the MHS effort is to adopt a pistol chambered for a more potent round than the current 9mm, weapons officials said. The U.S. military replaced the .45 caliber 1911 pistol with the M9 in 1985 and began using the 9mm NATO round at that time.

    Soldiers who have served in Iraq and Afghanistan have complained that the 9mm round is not powerful enough to be effective in combat.

    "The 9mm doesn't score high with soldier feedback," ..........................

  • Reply to

    Proud Parrot

    by equity_360 Sep 27, 2014 8:35 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Sep 30, 2014 8:06 PM Flag

    Why dont you post an lbo calculation and show us what you know, instead of telling others what they dont. If remington, marlin, bushmaster, et al were takeout targets that got taken out, then swhc is also a good candidate....

  • Reply to

    Is there a future ?

    by pooroldfred57 Sep 30, 2014 10:25 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Sep 30, 2014 11:50 AM Flag

    ?? Eh??

  • Reply to

    Proud Parrot

    by equity_360 Sep 27, 2014 8:35 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Sep 30, 2014 9:36 AM Flag

    Look at Freedom Groups Numbers.... lots of debt (proportionately higher than swhc) high debt/cashflow,etc... It will take a huge bid just to pay off the debt... one of the reasons (the prime reason) that Freedom was unable to sell in 2013.

    I disagree that debt levels and cash balance would not affect incentives or motivations. Because of the low debt and higher cash, its easier to strike a deal with the common shareholder, as there is more left over for the equity holders. The cash balance is attractive to the buyer as it reduces the amount of financing required...

    Despite there being capacity in the market, SWHC is a MARKET LEADER. Tell me this, if Glock went on the market tomorrow, the offering would not be eschewed because there was competition.... Only the makers of subpar bargain arms would be worried about competition (Taurus).

OLN
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