The short ones need to clear out. That will be tough. With this earnings call, swhc will gather a new set of watchers. The gap up tomorrow will be telling. The mms know what has to be covered in their book, and they will suck the first shares out for covering. I do not think there will be a slam down effort, that is just wasted money. There may be s strong gap, the a let off, then a spike.... I got my trading shoes on and coffee is brewing.
1) it was pivotal in the eyes of the investment community.
2) a high degree of professionalism, candor, self control,
3) demonstrated predictability in the numbers,
5) respect shown to the analysts and investors,
6) willingness to make them more aware of how people are interested in guns,
7) good numbers,
8) no questionable comments, scenarios,
10) I think debney is hitting a chord with the analysts. They are picking up on what he is doing with manufacturing and distribution. There was a nice give and take in the q&a.
Folks, I think swhc is going to get Ruger multiples after this call. The shorts are scrambling. This will not take too long to go to $18.
Good job management.
Wow. Key bank should be admonished for putting out such garbage. The writing is loaded with vagueness where precision is warranted. Key must have a large short position in gun stocks. Their logic and reasoning is highly flawed
Here's to a great year for the longs.
And to the shorts: Welcome to the House of Pain
That won't happen for one reason alone: BO black. If he were white (all white) proceedings would.already be underway. I believe the reps are playing it right
by making sure.that the healthcare fiasco is pinned squarely on the dems and BO.
I think that this presidency has been the most scandal ridden, dishonest, hateful bunch ever. Since taking office they have carried on the massive lie of healthcare, invaded privacy, stirred up racial animosities, ruined foreign diplomacy, and have given billions to a corrupt wall street. The poor got poorer and the rich got richer. The classic income transfer that accompanies such a massive money printing scheme like none other before. As we all learned in economics, inflation arbitrarily and perhaps unfairly redistributes real income. Top this off the legacy left behind when rates start to rise? Younger generations will increasingly find it harder to buy the first home. Get their first meaningful job,, or live without the State playing some significant role in their lives.
What I find most appalling is this.gang of hoods smashed the characters of good people to take power. they got countless millions to believe that George Bush, whose.character, statesmanship, leadership, and patriotism were remarkably high, that Geo Bush was a villain and a liar.
By now we all know who the villain and liar is. Doubtful that this dishonorable cretin will have any place of honor as an ex.president. The son of.Frank Marshall Davis will slide into obscurity. Lets hope people are.wiser after watching this Chicago hood and his gang of politicians.
I dont think the market is going to give this any cred... he has been wrong so long, and the company has put out a 2015 forecast that is pretty solid.
I promised some sales estimates, so I thought to look at quarterly NICs (NSSF adjusted) and compare to total revenues....
Revs per NIC-----$44.5795
Revs per NIC----- $53.9583
7/31/2013 $171.00 Milion
Revs per nic----- $63.3099
Interpretation of the above - SWHCs strongest quarter in terms of share. Improving SHARE!
Revs per nic ---$34.9754
Revs per NIC----------- $43.1051
Revs per NIC------- $43.9987
INterpreatation of the above - This is the hunting quarter - smith has nothing to do with hunting. They need to diversify
Revs per NIC---- $28.5756
1/31/2013----$136.2 0 million
Revs per NIC ----- $24.5273
1/31/2014------- $140.0 million
Calculated Rev per NIC $29.2386
My est of NICS ------4,788
Interp - SWHC Grabbing Share. I trimmed NICs down by 15% from last year. Note also that the 1/31/13 quarter was low in Rev per NIC - SWHC had not yet geared up and could not supply the Sandy hook onslaught, so their share FELL. They could not produce as much as all other players.
REvs Per NIC-----------$38.35
Revs per NIC----------$41.1247
Calc Revs per nic-- $44.65
EST NICS------------ 3,800
iNTERP - nICS fall but SWHC gets more share.... SWHC picking up share
I remember my investing courses and real life work -talking about risk and how investors become more averse to it as time goes on. I was young then, and didn't really understand it. Or I should say, i understood it but I didn't care. I didn't buy health insurance either.
But now, as I march stealthily towards my box, I do think about risk, but I am not ready to buy electric company bonds. I still like risk, a daredevil of sorts. Betting against the libtards and their fear mongering has been fun.
I think you are pulling in the reins a bit too soon. SWHC has its own dynamic going, and its a coincidence that its running with the market. Sure, you might get a chance to buy in a BIT cheaper, but that only makes you a trader. At this level, I am also trading, as I think SWHC is taking a SHORT breather, others with your sentiments and perhaps further along on their trip to the box have probably taken profits..... After al, this Journey aint for the faint hearted. and there is no reason for sleepless nights, even if you only sleep for three hours anyways.
HERE HERE -- this is a life changer for some employees who may have bought or been awarded stock over the years. GOOD WORK! I sure hope the folks who actually work in the plants get a piece of this...
either this is a short squeeze, or someone let out some news on the m^&a front.
The actions of the Obama admin remind me of the history of Russia following the revolution in 1917. The ruling party knew full well that they could never achieve the lofty goals of Marxism, so the called it a process, or endless revolution. Millions died while Lenin and his psychophants thought they could direct the economy and peoples lives. They too used the terms "just" and "right" to support their actions and excuse the millions upon millions of deaths they caused as they arbitrarily shifted resources from sustaining endeavors to cover mistakes in other areas.
Same with Obama. Healthcare, green energy....one has to be grateful for presidential term limits.
Wouldnt that be cool. If they came out with an M&A announcement on Friday after close and let the cauldron boil all weekend. woooooooooooooot wooooooooooooooooooot
While the rumors are thick (some oddballs are posting on ATKs board) I think this is all about a cover. The buying is far to pervasive for a 'quiet leak' to have taken place.
On the other hand, the big boys might have woken up to the fact that the company is UNDERVALUED severly, and as such is in the sights (so to speak) of acquirers... It really is, this sort of valuation dissonance is NEVER ignored for too long..... Watch out for the stunt of an interested buyer making public their interest to start a short squeeze....... I will be ready to trade on that news any day! I have sell orders for $28..
Folks. The moment is nearing.
The fact is dawning on investors that swhc is not a flash in the pan. That fact has never been lost on acquirers in the m&a sense. Swhc is a target for a number of reasons, not in any order of importance:
^the stock s undervalued by 50%,
^swhc has product lines that are focused. A buyer sees it as an easy transaction o absorb,
^certain acquirers are motivated to keep the assets out of other competitors hands,
^there are scant few targets of acquisition of swhc's caliber,
^the industry is projecting growth,
^acquirers such as ATK need to diversify their segments,
^acquirer ATK is growing their sporting arms segments aggressively,
^swhc management has not been able to gain respect via increased valuation multiples, like ruger,
^the need for consolidation is growing.
^an acquisition is simply too compelling to ignored. Money flows like water to undervalued assets.