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Alliant Techsystems Inc. Message Board

equity_360 111 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 29, 2014 3:52 PM Member since: Mar 29, 2013
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  • Is it smart for atk to own firearms manufacturing and an ancilliary products business?

    I speak directly to bushnell division. Bushnell products go on any rifle, and until atks acquisition of bushnell, competing manufacturers may have been more inclined to form association with atk. Now, they are feeding a competitor in savage. So, should a firearms company go horizontal? Should atk bust out savage?

    Should atk stick to bullets and riflescopes?

    When will we experience the second coming of Dat?

  • Buyback is about over...maybe $20 million left in authorization.....

    Maybe they are going to buy........savage? Remington?

    Swhc has developed a knack for marketing,,, they are being copied in certain situations.

    Something meaningful is coming up.

  • Reply to

    it'll be 15 in just no time at all..

    by daytradinghillbilly Jul 16, 2014 10:46 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jul 16, 2014 2:16 PM Flag

    yep... the funds are loading back up. They know an acquisition is on the way, and revenues will be $700 million in 2015

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jul 16, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    That remains a concern. But it seems that the army wants to move forward. These systems do not come on online for several years, so you have to think ahead to World War III

  • The M9 9mm pistol has been with the Army since the Cold War, but now it’s looking for something better. On July 29, the service will open its doors to gun makers to figure out how to make it happen.

    The Army has been working with the small arms industry for the past five years, and now it is on the cusp of making the Modular Handgun System (MHS) a reality. The new handgun will replace its current inventory of 200,000 M9 pistols.

    “It’s a total system replacement — new gun, new ammo, new holster, everything,” Daryl Easlick, a project officer with the Army’s Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, Georgia, told Fox News Thursday. “The 9mm doesn’t score high with soldier feedback. … We have to do better than our current 9mm.”

    Soldiers say that the problem with the M9 is that it simply isn’t capable of doing the kind of damage needed in combat environment.

    The Army plans on evaluating rounds such as .357 Sig, .40 S&W and .45 ACP during its elimination process, Fox News reported. If its competition goes according to plan, 400,000 new pistols will be purchased.

  • Reply to

    Institutional Holdings

    by rabies_00 Jul 14, 2014 3:42 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jul 14, 2014 7:21 PM Flag

    I remember the somber thanksgiving message, nearly suicidal, indicating that he was leaving.... that message has been deleted, I found, looking for it a few days ago...

  • Reply to

    Set your SWHC clocks to $10.....

    by libertee4all Jul 12, 2014 9:05 AM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jul 14, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    When are you going to start ejaculating about a dilutive secondary?

  • equity_360 by equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:58 PM Flag

    Add some earnings, add some ebitda, it all helps the pps.



    CASH OF 75 million plus $68 million in the bank. Stock buybacks are over...

  • Reply to

    What are they borrowing another $75M for?

    by jctuttle14 Jul 11, 2014 2:38 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    They dont need working capital. And thats the point. They are going to do something with the cash, and that is that.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 8:50 PM Flag

    Wrong again. 9 mm is on the way out. New standards in place. Do a little reading and you will find recent info to that effect.

    Its not that army contracts are soooo low margin, its just not as high as many would think. The advantage to having a multi year government contract is that they do provide steady production, gross margin, and offset to overhead.. It makes profitability on existing product lines easier to achieve. And do not forget about the marketing aspects....

  • Industry day on july 29....m&p is a frontrunner.

  • equity_360 equity_360 Jul 11, 2014 6:50 PM Flag

    No, Dat. I think if they were going to increase stock buybacks, it would have been announced. They included buybacks as one use of funds for the new 75 million, because its just general language. There is only 15,000,000 left for buybacks, no more. Capex is all but done, dat. They loaded up but good with automated flexible cnc equipment... If you ask me they are geared for an acquisition.

    If goldman wanted out, he would have sold at $17.... His end game is much higher.

    As to whom could be acquired? Savage, remington, winchster, springfield, you name it, its all either buying or being bought at this point. Sellers hopes are being moderated.

    Now, if that doesnt make you giddy enough, if swhc falls lower, it too will become an acquisition target, its getting into that zone right now....

  • unless swhc announces a new round of buybacks, its obvious they will make a huge acquisition... soon.
    Last I checked, there was less than $15 million left authorized for buybacks.....

  • Folks this is the time in a cycle (both in the gun space and in the larger market), that players wake up and realize that while times have been great, it might be time to either eat or be eaten. Acquisition targets have eschewed acquirers either outright or via demands for higher pricing. Some of the weaker players took advantage of the great times to shore up their balance sheets, pay debt, build their brands etc... and now may be ready to peddle themselves....

    SWHC is caught in this as well. Gun demand is softening and SWHC cannot merely sit at the sidelines and smile whilst revenues soften. Stock buybacks at these levels have a marginal effect, and cost the company dearly in leverage. Note that SWHC did not increase the buyback allocation.....

    I will expect acquisition news soon. Remington just settled a large class action over the model 700. SWHC needs to have a greater presence in the hunting space and I think Debney and Company can work wonders with making money on rifles and other long guns. REMINGTON has made NO EFFORT in entering the handgun space, with only a token move, years late, with the R51. Fienberg and Company might be angling to 'get while the gettin' is good" - after all, they were able to benefit from the gun boom as well... The equity funds such as Cerberus have not been very successful in getting full potential out of their holdings, mostly because they are entirely inept at managing the manufacturing process.

    Take note there are other brands out there that will be interested in selling. Springfield is getting punished brutally by SWHC and may be willing to throw in the towel. Springfield is more of an assembler, and that is why their pricing is higher - they are paying profit to all the manufacturers. SWHC can manufacture those guns and realize value that Springfield never could. Now SWHC also has plastic injection in-house, so perhaps SWHC is looking to double down on their plastic capabilities...

  • Getting the non-sport version soon. Ive been looking into the ars and think Smith has a very high quality rifle without jumping to the $2000 point. Rock River has some good qualities, but Smith fit and finish is excellent.

  • equity_360 by equity_360 Jul 3, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    June 2014 1,383,000
    June 2013 1,281,000
    May 2014 1,485,000
    May 2013 1,436,000

    June down form May, but not as much as last year!!! Go Barry, Go!

  • Rharris started a great thread on stock buybacks - and INDEED its worth of attention.

    Stock buybacks - At the current PPS, the stock buyback effect is muted as a relatively small number of shares will be bought back (the efect on total remaining outstanding is miniscule), WHILE at the same time, the company is spending a very valuable asset C-A-S-H for the buyback. IN THE PRESENCE of DEBT, WHICH cost the company $1.8 million per quarter or $7.2 million a year (THATS 12 cents a share ANNUALLY!!)..


    I am looking into the future and think that despite recent strength, there may be some weakness in PPS coming up.... was at the gun store this weekend and saw that all the showcases were stacked with pistolas, there were heaps of 9 and 40 ammo, still no 22s, there was a wall full of ARs, but THERE WERE NO 9mm SHIELDS AVAILABLE.

    Divvies - I am agnostic. I do think that a minor dividend would help the PPS as the analysts would have a number to plug into the intrinsic value calculation - even if it were just a ten cent annual divvy.

  • Fiscal year ended April 2014 was a record for Smith and Wesson. You'd expect the after sucha boom year that sales would fall back considerably. No so. Swhc is projecting $600 million in sales and already has their first quarter in the bag. Earnings will be strong. The company stock is undervalued compared to ruger and the larger market... Price targets of $18-20 are still valid....

  • Reply to

    What's changed at SWHC....

    by libertee4all Jun 23, 2014 12:54 PM
    equity_360 equity_360 Jun 25, 2014 5:31 PM Flag

    There is no 'big decline in forward estimates'. You are looking at consensus estimates by analysts... Sales are still going to be strong, earnings still strong. Swhc will continue to build its cash hoard

  • Swhc is undervalued at these levels.... Have not yet seen the margin kicker from the polymer acquisition...that acquisition closed May 20, so none of it is in the numbers reported. $68 million in cash, even after paying for descretionary capex, and capex that made the cost structure very flexible.

    Datbe/libertee/lllorac hard at it again asserting gloom and doom. Recall the dilutive secondary that never happened?

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