First they ignored the opportunity to maximize shareholder value several years ago when China was paying an amount equal to $37 a COS share for syncrude assets ( when COS was trading in the mid 20's), Then they spent over $3 billion on upgrades and cap ex BY BORROWING and not making sure they could get a price for their oil that justified the investment, in effect LEVERAGING US UP. Then they fought a .32 offer when SU was $33 to take a .28 offer with SU at $20.90 a few months later. SHAMEFUL TOTALLY INCOMPETENT MANAGEMENT. Hope they get sued!!!
Fighting a .32 offer that could have gotten us over US$10 to accept a deal getting us LESS than US$6 !!! NOW let that be a lesson to shareholders. You get in bed with incompetent management and you lose. I know nobody though oil was going from $100 to $29, but ONLY an inept, incompetent management spends billions by borrowing based on $100 and doesn't protect those assets insuring at least some production will bring prices adequate to meet the company's obligations and remain solvent!!!!! If I read the management got huge packages to take the deal, SHAREHOLDERS SUE!!!!!
They have one of the lowest DEBT/Equity ratios in the industry. Not saying this will be a great stock, just saying you don't have a clue what you are talking about.
I'd like to hear from COS how and if COS can survive until 2019 ( when debt comes do) with WTI at US$30, as usual their last GUIDANCE for 2016 made in DEC. uses VERY AGGRESSIVE oil at US$50. I think the shareholders deserve to know the REAL economics at CURRENT PRICES, not pray for prices. How long can they last borrowing money with $30 oil????????
ita-1972 You must be really dumb. If you took the time to read my many posts, you'd know i'm a large shareholder, who knows the company, and only cares about maximizing shareholder value. FACTS are FACTS and I'm willing to take loses when the oil environment changes instead of PRAYING for a move back to $80 like COS management. Even though I'm willing to take losses I still want a fair price given COS's assets. Unfortunately COS management has made that all but impossible today and their past management of OUR ASSETS has been VERY POOR!
I am a COS shareholder and I think it's a joke having 30 people on the doll when they just own an interest in a project they don't run. You can see none of the 30 have a clue about maximizing shareholder value or protecting the BILLIONS they have to pony up for their share upgrades and Cap. ex. Kubik $2.9 million, I don't begrudge him a nice paycheck, if he was doing a good job, but up to now he's only HURT shareholders through poor decisions and fighting SU's higher offers as oil continues to decline and our debt becomes more of a problem!
No argument here that COS management in totally inept. However, the SU deal is a joke and should be rejected. The assets are worth far more than the $.5.59 offer based on today's SU price. If COS worked with them months ago we would have gotten TWICE this price. Now is NOT the time to sell. Where can you get in effect a perpetual option on oil for $5.30 that could more than quadruple in a few years!
Su's offer had some merit WAY BACK in April when COS shareholders would have received about DOUBLE the current value( .32 X $32). Unfortunately COS management showed the same lack of foresight that lead them into this mess ( not to insuring the sale of their production would bring prices that would could pay back their debt and keep their dividend) in dealing with the SU offers. By refusing to negotiate and watching oil continue to decline, they once again failed Shareholders. Oil's further fall and the decline in SU's stock, has destroyed the merits of SU's offer. They need to step up with a better offer or go away. Come back when oil is at $45-50 and offer .32 when your stock is north of US$33, and maybe you'll get some takers. As for COS management, TAKE A COURSE IN FIDUCIARY responsibility and do your job for the benefit of shareholders in the future. You certainly haven't delivered for us in years!
First intelligent posting on this site in a long time. I agree with you and feel the same. At .33 I would tender but would likely want I collar so I actual get that value. COS has spent as much on Capital improvements over the last 3-4 years as SU is offering for the whole company, thereby getting over 40 years of reserves for free. You can't blame SU for trying to steal the company, but you can blame COS management for not negotiating earlier when we could have gotten TWICE today's close and you can blame them for mismanagement . Yes Imperial runs it, but COS has the largest stake and thus the largest vote in what happens, if Imperial can't get it done, then another operator should take over. It doesn't excuse COS management from borrowing Billions without locking in enough production at prices necessary to pay off our debt, thereby putting our entire investment at risk. Nor does it excuse them from NOT acting to maximize shareholder value OVER the last SEVERAL YEARS!
Your are SOOO WRONG. The big discount to the SU bid says three things. 1. COS couldn't find a deal they would take. 2. there is nobody interested in doing a hostile at a higher price right now. AND 3. Su's offer will be rejected because it's too low. Why would shareholder who bought the stock MUCH higher less for a buck above the low?? If they held it through the decline they either want to hold for a potential oil rise or a better offer.
I most likely own more shares than all the idiots supporting COS management commenting on my post. You can support independence or the SU offer, it doesn't matter. NEITHER action is absolutely right or wrong. The one think that is Absolutely right is COS management has GROSSLY mismanaged our investment and looks to be more concerned about their jobs than Shareholder value.
COS has won the battle to save their jobs and destroy shareholder value. Fighting for months against an offer valued at over $10 back in April, has left shareholders with a current offer valued at less than $6 or independence and all or nothing bet that oil will rise sharply over the next couple of years before the loans come due. Given the recent decline in crude, and crashing world equity markets, why wouldn't SU pull it's offer and watch COS shareholders suffer further pain at the hands of incompetent COS management. For years COS as put out assumptions that are rose and never met. PRODUCTION HAS declined from 2007 levels NOT increased, WTI forecasts always above current WTI prices, etc. We now are stuck with poor management and their poor strategy of PRAYING for a significant rise in oil. Even then incompetent COS management of your company will hold the price of shares down.
Inept COS management has apparently won it's fight with SU. A fight which COS management has been waging since SU offered .32 last April. That offer was when SU was trading at $30-33 valuing COSWF shares at $9.60-$10.60!!! Now the offer of .25 is valued at $6.05 based on SU close today. NICE JOB COS you could most likely have gotten us even a little more than .32 if you did a friendly deal. However, you achieved your goal, saved your jobs, screwed the shareholders, and put us back in your all or nothing bet on crude. I, like apparently enough COS shareholders say ok…UNCLE.. WE know the assets are worth more than $6 and will play along with your bet, hoping oil rallies at least enough to see our stock hit what we could have gotten in April for a friendly deal. Now compounding your incompetency by costing shareholder an additional 40% DECLINE by not working with SU months ago, I hope you guys will do the right thing and free us from your incompetence when oil rises above $50 and find a GOOD BUYER.
SU knows their offer isn't close to fair value and that COS shareholders, even though frustrated with inept COS management, aren't going to accept such a low ball bid. Raise it to .32 or leave! We know we may experience more pain before any gain, but think it's preferable to such a poor offer!
I understand the unhedged strategy and I understand that is what many COS shareholders wanted. HOWEVER, COS management didn't just offer an unhedged play, Management decided to LEVERAGE the company more. If you make HUGE investments in an environment of $100 oil AND YOU BORROW TO DO IT, you should be sure to lock in some revenue to be able to meet you debts. When you make a BAD BET,as they have done you need to come up with alternatives to just hold on and pray! COS should have sought a better offer last April or worked with SU on a slight raise from .32 to endorse the deal. Shareholders could then have taken their PREMIUM (the money) and chose from MANY other oil investments. That would have been much better for Shareholders. COS has NEVER tried to maximize shareholder value. When the Sinopec bought at a huge Premium several years ago, did SU explore selling a stake? NO, they told me they would like to increase their stake in Syncrude NOT SELL, although not at the $37 a share price Sinopec was paying. Heck you can get COS type leverage to oil just BUYING FUTURES, or other highly leveraged oil stocks! COS MANAGEMENT NEEDS TO WAKE UP AND GET US AT LEAST .32 and we can move on to BETTER MANAGED oil plays!
Those telling us to accept the SU offer are NOT COS shareholders. If you held COS all the way down, why would you accept SU's lowball offer? And if you did, it certainly wasn't because you liked it. Anyone following COS or the Syncrude project knows the reserves and BILLION they have spent on upgrades over the last few years are worth much more than .25 SU shares. Yes some COS shareholders might want to throw in the towel, given COS's INEPT management, but we all know the assets are worth more than the SU offer. It's a valid concern whether COS management can change, be more shareholder friendly, and really work to realize that value
COS may fall on the news SU's offer isn't accepted. However, shareholders who have held on through the decline, would rather wait for a rebound, even if it takes a couple of years, rather than accept an offer that is clearly inadequate. You hold a stock that goes from C$24 to $8 and you want to sell at $9?? when the value of the assets are CLEARLY higher.
At .32 SU would still be getting real value,and that might get them the votes they need. MAYBE SU is tanking the last week because the market KNOWS they can't steal COS for .25 shares!!!
SU isn't getting enough interest at .25. Why should they, .25 is TOO LOW and they offered .32 earlier in the year. They say oil has gone lower, but so has their share price making their offer even less attractive. Then we have COS management, dedicated to saving their jobs and not working for shareholders. COS management has mismanaged our investment for years. What happened to all those SERIOUSLY interested parties??? COS has said nothing but, save our jobs, stay independent! That's easy to support given SU's offer, but if SU get's smart and goes back to .32, it will be hard not to tender given how inept COS management has been. Even if the .32 isn't full value, it may be just enough to tip the scales for SU. Given COS conduct it would win me over.
Nobody knows the REAL NAV. The value of their properties MAY NOT BE what the company states. The market is questioning the price paid for Acquisitions from parties where there may be a conflict of interest. Therefore until they generate returns from those assets that enable C/F to increase enough for dividend hikes, these shares will trade in an 8-12 range. Shareholder rating services give them VERY LOW marks. Cooperman's Omega advisors is the biggest holder and they have been off the mark lately with several VERY bad investments like, SNR, Monitise, and many energy stocks. Cooperman's a Billionaire and it looks like he has stopped doing the quality research he was known for in his younger years. Much like Buffet won't give up on old tech, LIKE IBM. When you are a billionaire does it really mater if you stick with some losers? Evidently NO for Cooperman and Buffet.
I agree that the management has been inept and NOT shareholder friendly. Worse yet they aren't telling shareholders the truth. They never considered telling us about SU's higher offer earlier in the year. They exaggerated the potential of a better offer, when it appears they really don't want one. That doesn't change the fact that the ASSETS are worth more than SU is offering. I don't believe COS management is trying to sell to the highest bidder and many companies won't go hostile. Also at the bottom, a lot of companies have cold feet or don't have the credit to do a deal. What I think is fair to all is that SU raises it's bid to .32 or .35. That would get the votes they need. Absent an increase I think COS will be able to defeat their bid and we will be just, as SU said, " have a strategy of HOPE. " Hope with an incompetent management that has failed shareholders for at least the last 7 years. We know they are incompetent, lets hope they are lucky.