Over the last 3 years this management has spent over $3 billion in cap ex. Borrowing heavily to do it. I admit NOBODY expected oil to go from $110 to $40. However, any competent management should have hedged at least some of it's production and not bet the ranch on oil never going down. If the projects were justified, and I believe they were especially at $100 oil, then you have to lock in that price to insure you earn the projected return, and can keep your dividend, especially when you are borrowing the money. Second when Sinopec bought it's stake a few years ago, it was at a price equal to about $37 a COS share ( COS was around $22) , did management do anything to monetize our ownership? NO, they were actually telling people they would rather be buyers than sellers! Now they have essentially bet our WHOLE investment that oil rebounds in the text 2 years. All or nothing! Lets hope they and we get lucky, because we all know by now this management is totally inept.
The point being that if your facilities are UNDER valued why not use any excess cash flow or borrowings to buy your UNDER VALUED ASSETS rather than doing a dilutive stock sale to buy fairly or OVER priced facilities! Every share you buy back SAVES YOU over 9% in dividend payments. I guess you can chuckle losing 43% of you money in a few months, but most investors would view that as pretty dumb. As far as your comment on institutions buying the stock, I HAD TO CHUCKLE! I never heard of a stock under strong institutional accumulation DECLINING 43%. NOW that's a Laugh!
These type of stocks RARELY sell much above book value. SNR proved they don't think they should either by selling stock at $13.75. If your stock is undervalued you buy it back vs selling more to fund buying more facilities. At $11 it's at fair value with a good dividend. Eventually the stock will SLOWLY move higher if they can increase the dividend a little each year. It's going to be several years before we see anything around $20 again.
Rating Coswf a sell at $5.50 is foolish unless you see oil going below $40 and staying below $50 for the next 5-10 years. With billions already spent on Cap Ex. to modernize Syncrude and with 40+ years of reserves, there is real asset value in this holding. On the move in WTI from $43 to just above $60 earlier this year, Coswf went from $5 to over $11. Why would you sell here unless you see oil in permanent state of decline.
Some day, maybe next year, maybe 2017 or 2018 AMBA might disappoint. However, that day is not on the horizon. AMBA will blow out the numbers when they report in a month and Citron has no facts to dispute that the company is on a roll with the right products addressing fast growing markets. Rev. and earnings are confirming their momentum. AMBA will be at new highs before they report.
Amba will BLOW OUT THE NUMBERS! However, that report is over a month away. With the market looking lousy, China, oil, weak GDP, etc. It might be the last chance for shorts to cover. Pound it on the open, put out another inaccurate report and cover before we get too close to earnings. Just another buying opportunity for those with a time frame of more than a month.
I 've said it a million times. You don't short a stock on valuation. You short after a break in fundamentals, a change in earnings outlook, accounting issues, product problems, etc. AMBA in all the right growth markets, with strong rev., earnings, and stock price momentum. Sells at a lower PE and than much larger cap growth stocks like UA, CMG, SHAK, etc all which are growing at a slower pace and face more competition. Bear raids like Citron are only buying opportunities and each time they come it's like the boy who cried wolf, they have less and less effect. AMBA will blow away the numbers and raise est. yet again next report.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
kiddd4720 makes sense. Any management that does a deal that SUBTRACTS from shareholder value has to be questioned and given the potential self dealing, all the more concern.
COSWF reports on July 30. Lower production in the Q due to down time, combined with weaker oil prices should result in uninspiring results and a possible dividend elimination ( which they should have done in January). If this occurs this would likely make the bottom in the stock. This management needs to realize their position in a low price environment and hire an investment bank to explore all possibilities. That announcement would make the stock rise to $8-9 and a possible sale could be at $11-12 even at today's oil prices.
Good purchase. These geniuses spent more than the current mkt cap on cap ex over the last few years and weren't smart enough to hedge even a few barrels to protect our investment. They didn't think selling out when the stock was over $20 was in the best interests of shareholders and now they are completely lost on what to do. Lets hope XON comes to the rescue. They should be able to get about twice the current price even with oil around $52, given 40 years of production and the $3.5 billion in cap ex. these guys spent.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I took my loss a week ago at $5.31. A company where the CFO leaves, and insiders keep selling in spite of the stock being down over 75% from it's IPO price, just plain smells. They announced a big buyback and management keeps selling. Smells like a very bad Q coming and maybe accounting issues or fraud. Only a buyout can save shareholders and i 'm just not betting on that with the level of insider sales.
AMBA reports huge beat and chases out all the shorts. The stock gets over extended, up 75% in less than 2 mos. Citron goes short and scares a bunch of longs with big gains out and gets some new shorts established. They cover. Perfect raid. They might get another chance to play the same game as the stock works it's way up into 2Q earnings CRUSHES the numbers again and chases all the shorts out. After the shorts cover and the longs see big gains, they play the game again. Today the clueless SEC just stands by and watches.
It will be a bit of a fight for a few weeks. When we get near earnings some shorts will cover. Blow out numbers again and raised guidance will have the shorts running for the exits just like they did after 1st Q results.
Stocks that go down everyday, and are down 70+% from IPO price and STILL JUST HAVE INSIDER SELLING are not the places to be. Huge buyback does nothing, EPS report should be poor again, especially with the rising $. The only hope is a buyout, but with bad fundaments it would only come from a misplaced buyer, you know like BankAmerica's buyout of Countrywide. I'm not hanging around and hoping for a dumb buyer.
I ignored their price to book and when these types of companies sell at a big pre. to book they keep selling stock and making Acq. Only time will tell if those acq. work or if they are buying at the peak, when valuations are high due to low interest rates. The stock is a hold at $15, you can collect the dividend and rise a couple of bucks over the next couple of years if they don't screw up on acq.
have these bear raids. Tesla, NFLX, etc etc. All had similar bear raids before going to new highs. AS LONG AS THE EPS keeps beating and raising and they lead in fast growth markets, this stock hasn't seen it's highs yet. REMEMBER Rookies, you sell when the fundaments change not on valuation. Now if someone can prove to me there is serious competition 2 or 3 quarters out I'll listen. Otherwise It's just another buying opportunity on it's way to $160 before the end of the year.
You can see the shorts covering each morning after the previous day's big gain. However, institutions and individuals are just learning about the company. The numbers are compelling with next year's est. going up by well over a dollar after the last Q and the prospect of being raised again after the next. When a company is addressing hot growth markets and has earnings which are growing well over 50%, the stock will be hot and a 30 pe on next years EPS is NOT HIGH ENOUGH!!!! Stock will be over $150 within 12 weeks.
How you can short a stock with DRAMATIC GROWTH who beats and raises EVERY Q and sells even NOW at less than 1 times it's growth rate is beyond belief! You short stocks with BAD fundaments NOT GOOD ones. Fighting the Mo is just plain stupid. Don't buy if you're worried, but shorting is just insane. You will be covering and have lost well before they run into trouble, if they ever do. By the way they raised guidance big time on the call, don't you thing they saved a little just to beat again?? Q was 1/3 over when they had the con. call. If you add up the numbers they gave you get ABOVE their greatly raised guidance! Any pullback is a BUY! Two weeks before EPS AMBA will run again as Q will be AT LEAST $.90!!!!
One of the dumbest comments to date. First if it gets to $58-63 it would mean the story is over and you should SELL not BUY!. That would happen only if competition occurs and earning growth slows or if the market declines 30+% and yes then it might be a buy if grow still intact. What you rookie's DON'T under stand is the company is in all the right places and the grow is dramatic. Anybody wanting expose will buy this name and so will institutions. IT's aways better to buy off the new high list ( companies doing well) than off the new low list ( companies doing poorly) Before the earnings release eps for jan 17 was $2.89, now est. are as high as $4.11 and we know the company is beating est. EVERY Q. So why isn't it worth 40X 4.11 or $164. It's would still be less than ONE TIMES IT'S growth rate. Look at other high growth names and tell me you can fine 40% growth in hot markets, in a nice mid cap selling for LESS than 40 times. Oh yes, we are playing the MO and earnings growth game, but in a slow growth economy that is what gets the attention of investors! You might get a little pull back but will you be smart enough to time it just right? I doubt it.