Much to my surprise they were able to lower their costs to offset what I thought would be a very negative Q. However, after listening to the annual meeting I find this management to still be very weak. I likely will sell the stock i bought at $4.74 on any further move up as the gain will completely offset the huge losses from owning other shares for several years. This remains just a play on oil prices, with little hope that this management would maximize shareholder value. See my other posts for more perspective.
Coswf reports on April 30th. Numbers likely to be poor as oil was well under their overly optimistic target price during the first Q. If the stock gets hit on the poor earnings, it's your last good chance to buy. Down to the high 8's or low 9's WOULD BE A GREAT BUYING opportunity. Either a takeout or further recovery in oil gets this back to near $15 later this year. You're buying great assets at a big discount.
On Jan. 30th he wrote he'd sell Coswf and buy T at the then price of $32.92. Coswf closed on Jan 30 at $6.25. COSWF UP OVER 50% since then, T down about 1%. He said XOM wouldn't be interested in this high cost producer. First Capital today said XOM maybe interested and Coswf ripe for a takeover. I said 2 1/2 months ago XOM SHOULD BE INTERESTED. The only intelligent life on this message board seems to be the Eman. Since when do you compare Mobile phone companies to energy companies. Apples to oranges, shows no knowledge of either industry.
In the low teens!!!
50% premium!!!!! Coswf's stake in Syncrude should be worth a similar PREMIUM!!! Shareholders should question management on this issue at their April 30th annual meeting in Calgary. Wouldn't we be better off with $14-15 of Exxon stock ??? Better yield, retains some upside if oil rallies, and protects us from the risk to our balance sheet do to our ongoing cash burn.
You ignore the fact that they have 40 plus years of reserves and the heavy investment in infrastructure is IMPORTANT if you get it for pennies on the $. They are a high cost producer relative to some, but not all producers, and many more would fail raising oil prices before syncrude stops producing. The asset value is much higher than the current stock price. The real question is will management swallow their pride after being so wrong and sell near the bottom of the market. Many see oil going back to $70 within 12 months, if so the stock will be up 50-100%, if it takes two years, they have the staying power. If management sells now maybe $12-15 us $. to someone like Imperial or maybe they let all the remaining partners increase their stake in an auction. the stock though risky is WAY UNDER VALUED.
You are correct my friend! Any big time money manager will tell you he'd rather buy off the new high list than the new low list! How would you be doing if you bought AMBA earlier this MONTH when it broke to a new high just above $63??? Amba looks like it could become a little extended soon, but the fundamentals are so positive and the market cap relatively small who knows?? Shorts could push it higher over the near term.
Great earnings report, upward guidance, fast growing markets, small/mid cap. EVERYTHING institutional investors like to see in a stock. Goes up on down days and on up days. Plain & Simple, institutions are buying the story and the stock!
Locked in a $31- 37-38 range. Good buy for income with interest rates at this level at the lower end, a sell at the higher end. Lets not over think this rather boring company.
If you are a long term investor, you don't. AMBA right Mkt cap to run for several years if they keep growing at this rate. If you believe in their new markets Drones, Auto, Security upgrade cycle, more companies using their tech, etc. If you are a trader you sell today and maybe the market gives you a change in high 50's low 60's
So Deutsche missed 100% move in 13 months and you bother to even listen to them. Conf call total you all you need to know. Seasonally weak 1Q will exceed seasonally STRONG 4th Q. cameras to replace mirrors on cars in developmemt . Conservative guid. up over 10%, etc etc All businesses strong! 2 billion mkt cap just getting started.
The scary thing for the shorts is with new products by major players using AMBA chips and conservative guidance raised over 10%, how long do these guys want to go against the grain. There have been many good tech. companies that have busted the shorts long before they ran into trouble or competition. There are easier ways to make a buck. Best advice, shorts cover and move on, you're on the wrong side of this one for at least another year!
Shorts you need to learn lesson #1. You don't short companies with leading tech. in fast growing markets. YOU short companies with DECLINING FUNDAMENTALS, NOT IMPROVING FUNDAMENTALS!!!
PROJECTING NEXT SEASONALLY WEAK 1 st Q will exceed seasonally STRONG 4TH!!!!! Shorts will cover. You don't short a small/mid cap with leading tech. with 30% rev. growth. You can only short it ONCE someone comes up with a better product. Company still has at least a two year advantage.
Syncrude is making good progress in lowering cash costs. Given COSWF market cap. and all the money they have spent on Cap. Ex. their 36.7% stake is worth a lot more than the $9 us it is currently selling for. Imperial where the HELL are you!!!! Oil has bottomed and now in a $45-55 range for awhile. Not enough to get Coswf really moving a lot higher, but at a price someone should want to acquire them. How about an auction with all partners bidding to increase their stake???? Management needs to come up with a plan to help LONG suffering shareholders!!!
The stock moves up slowly but steadily when there is no news or reason, other than insiders knowing the likely offers are north of the current price. Don't know if it's $.40 or $.50 or $.60 but that is likely the range.
You have a company with leading technology and less than $2 billion market cap. COMPETITION for GoPRO is more business for them. Security and police markets for their chips could be huge in time. Earnings report will be another big surprise. Momentum guys will buy and some shorts will get nervous and buy. $65 before the end of the month??
Why??/ Because they can get BILLIONS of barrels and 40 years+ of production for a couple billion $$$. For your information COSWF and it's partners of WHICH EXXON IS ONE use an upgrader that produces LIGHT SWEET CRUDE and with cash costs around mid $40's they are far from the highest cost producers. Finally, huge assets in a SAFE FRIENDLY country. So there is the answer to your false assumptions. If you own the stock ( coswf) you really should learn about the company. Poor Management, BUT HIGH ASSET VALUES!