Wow. That's some serious investment. You must have firm reason to hold that many shares and for that long on the way down.
I thought it's actually going into your favor when you hold longer in a "normal" bull market. But if it's turbulent and in recession time, I agree.
This is NOT a call to jump in now; it's rather my question to the more experienced traders/holders.
If I plan to hold for 12 months, should I long SVXY or short UVXY on the same amount of fund? Why?
We all know UVXY deteriorates over time and SVXY increases over time. But what about risks and amount each can earn, percentage wise? While UVXY is 3x and SVXY is 1x, I think Long SVXY is a better choice. What do you think and why? Thanks!
Which Fed meeting today? On Fed calendar, there's none in Aug.
Good for you but I think UVXY still have at least another leg up. Watching today and yesterday (after initial craziness of the week), I think backwardation is still a major factor. Tendency is still upward for UVXY.
How do you determine when to start shorting UVXY (for a long-term keep)? As you've seen, it can double or more at any point. Do you wait out until it's on contango or by other metrics?
Anyone here care to use Contango/Backwardation when trading UVXY, VXX, SVXY or XIV?
Yes, SP500 up/down matters, VIX matters but Con/Back seem to affect a lot too. I'm not sure how much it is compared to the other 2 components though. I thought while it's on Backwardation like it's now, long UVXY is the choice until it's Contango.
So days like today, SP is up 2.49%, but UVXY is relatively okay and tend to come back up quicker (than down). Two weeks ago, it'd be down 25% or so.
Any experienced traders here?
I'm thinking the same. I think I will wait out until Backwardation is gone or almost neutral knowing I may lose some good earning by then.
I've been there or worst. I do not trade option any more for this reason. ETFs are enough for me.
I know it's hard, but now forget about the bad trade. Look forwards for a better strategy. Good luck.
Yes. VIX and VIN were more than 50 today. It's unsustainable for long espcially market is getting so MUCH better now compared to day start. UVXY is still at 52 atm. I think it's a great time to short now, or long SVXY. Much less risk now than last Friday.