BTW, what's next? I think price will soon go up, and someone will point out IBM's earning is great and turning around from here. We are played as stupid herd of sheeps. Will see.
IMO, today price movement was a total "setup". Although the expected earning (top & bottom) were surpassed, market penalized IBM stock b/c the revenue was lowered than that last year and the lowest in 14 years. Well, wasn't it already "expected" in the estimate? Why bought all the way up to be "upset" about after earning? That's why I said this is the total setup on IBM earning. In other words, market was already determined to sell regardless what'd be coming out of earning.
Disclaimer: I had a Put on this and made a gain, so I'm not complaining or bashing anything. I'm just pointing it out. The whole "logic" behind price is non-logical at all to me. And I'm not naive about the market, but I still hate to see such a huge manipulation and how media presents the news as something really new while it's not.
Easy said than done. IBM is in consulting services sector now. It's a very competitive industry with risk of losing money for keeping expensive resources on the bench when they don't have projects. They're facing strong competitors like Accenture, Oracle and other well known players in the market. IBM's Watson is sort of for name rather than money making instrument. I don't know if IBM can turn around easily, and if they could, the nature of this business is going by quarter.
Am I seeing GS forming inverting Head/Shoulders w/ double bottom? Chart timeframe: 1/2016 - Now. If it works out, it will reach ~180 in couple of months. Problem is earning may be in the way. I'm a cautious buyer atm. Anyone care to chime in?
You are absolutely right. Never try to squeeze a few more bucks for a potential huge loss. And that's what happened. Always weight on risk vs. reward.
This happens when traders think DGAZ will tank soon, and it's happening now. There are no more shares available to short. Let's see how low it will go this time.
Calling names and cursing only confirms you have no substance. Dumb luck does happen, so keep your non-basis speculation for yourself b/c nobody will believe it. And don't come back until you have something better to say.
Now that NG current month broke through strong resistance $1.7, it's likely to continue to the upside unless there's big changes in fundamentals. This observation is purely technical.
I am still holding my position about potential hot and early "Summer" which will move the mid-yr NG consumption window forwards by a month or two. That should support NG price in mid-term.
Thirdly, if you have not known, UNG/UGAZ/DGAZ are naturally going down over time should all other factors hold unchanged. That's why it's best to short dgaz instead of long ung and ugaz if you believe NG will gradually go up.
All in all, I would not jump in with both feet since none of us know for sure what will turn out.
Do not advise others making foolish investment when you don't have any facts or have any clues what's going on. Disagree? Provide facts about Credit Suisse, reverse split or anything you said here. All of yours are just personal speculation, so feel free to keep it for yourself.
Consider it already came down 60% from 171 last year, it's already bullish from demand vs. supply balance. It's nice to see 80, but I don't think we need to.
What it comes down to is short-term cool weather (bearish), mid-term Summer heat (bullish), long-term limited supply (bullish), long-term increase in export (bullish). IMO, NG is very likely above $2 by June. That means DGAZ will be back below $10.
That also means Summer comes sooner and harder than usual. Do you know NG is used more for power in the Summer than consumer's heating in Winter? Traders will switch side very quickly.
You should have sold earlier today at 32.
Likely we'll be like 2012 when Winter consumption was low and Summer shot up.
Well, at some point you'll be right. :) The question is how much of the damage is done in between and the challenge is whether one can bear holding it until then.
The common wisdom is not to short when it's oversold (like NG is now) and not to buy when it's overbought (DGAZ now). But then, the condition can still get worse until who knows.
I'd short here with some money, but not all, knowing it still can have a burst to the upside. I'll pace out short entries and will probably add more short money at 35-37 if it gets there, but not crazy in between. I believe if one can hold short to the Summer, the trade is most likely be profitable. Summer gas consumption (for power) is a lot more than consumer's in the Winter.
One thing we can expect is when NG price drop is done, it'll be VERY ugly for DGAZ longs. Future does not actually have to increase that much for big drop in DGAZ. I would not want to earn a few extra buck (now) on Long side for potential of losing 50% or more.