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Apple Inc. Message Board

equityrich 29 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 19, 2015 6:33 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich Jan 19, 2015 6:33 PM Flag

    Excellent post and great points. Hopefully those who are both long and short read this to understand a little more about the real story. Most of the longs are using "hope" as their investing thesis. That rarely ends well.

    I put Tesla in the too easy to short but too dangerous to short category. The markets can remain irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Whether judgement day comes down on Tesla in a week, month, year or longer I just don't know. I just know it will. If I could time it even just about right I could buy PUT options and walk away over 100M richer.

    In the meantime Musk will continue to tweet his hyped messages that just don't seem to ever come true or hit the mark. Keep the Kool-Aid flowing for those who are willing to drink it.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • A must read for longs or shorts

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/2015/01/19/teslas-elon-musk-master-hyperbole/

  • equityrich by equityrich Jan 16, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    I got my proxy vote. Catch this:

    "APPROVAL OF AMENDMENTS TO THE FIFTH AMENDED AND RESTATED CERTIFICATE OF INCORPORATION TO FACILITATE STOCK SPLITS."

    The vote closes 1/27/15 so it would have to be after that where something could be announced.

    Question is do they do 2 for 1? 3 for 1? 5 for 1? 10 for 1?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bear thesis

    by retailbaloon Jan 4, 2015 3:44 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Big difference having a bear thesis on a 700B company vs a 20B company. At 700B apple needs another iphone hit to keep growing. Watch will be at best Apple TV success...a hobby. ipads sinking and getting worse as phablets replace many of them. iPhone is at peak.

    To see where apple is headed look at Samsung. Samsung is down in sales not because apple is taking share away as much as all their customers already got large screen phones over the last 3 years. Now that they have them the reason to upgrade is non-existent. Apple will follow this same exact path over the next 2 to 3 years as all contracts come due and everyone left with smaller screen phones upgrades. After that the upgrade cycles will move from 1-2 years to 3 to 4 years or more.

    Remember I called it.

  • Reply to

    bear thesis

    by retailbaloon Jan 4, 2015 3:44 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 2:53 PM Flag

    Big difference having a bear thesis on a 700B company vs a 20B company. At 700B apple needs another iphone hit to keep growing. Watch will be at best Apple TV success...a hobby. ipads sinking and getting worse as phablets replace many of them. iPhone is at peak.

    To see where apple is headed look at Samsung. Samsung is down in sales not because apple is taking share away as much as all their customers already got large screen phones over the last 3 years. Now that they have them the reason to upgrade is non-existent. Apple will follow this same exact path over the next 2 to 3 years as all contracts come due and everyone left with smaller screen phones upgrades. After that the upgrade cycles will move from 1-2 years to 3 to 4 years or more.

    Remember I called it.

  • Reply to

    Huge December sales

    by signnation Jan 8, 2015 9:44 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 16, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    I closed out my PUTS (short ones). I fear Ruger is still losing share as their competitors have been aggresively promoting while Ruger share plummets as they refuse to. I think they are getting inventory builds and will be forced to discount heavily at some point to clear the channel.

    With Obama on the way out it seems like all the fears that caused the gun superspike have played out and there is still some air to be let out of that bubble. I was in at 50 and missed the top at 80. held down to 38 for small loss on few hundred shares. Instead of buying more than that I wrote PUTS so that softened the downside. Those PUTS expire today but I closed them out because I do not want to own the stock.

    I think the gun stocks are just too toxic with much lower unit sales ahead as things "normalize" to non panic buying levels. Also RGR put on much new capacity that now has no use so their overhead is significant as these facilities have to stay idle.

    Easier ways to make money in the market and I just admit I missed the trading peak on this one. Should have peeled half the position off when I was up 60% rather than watch this risky one turn into losses. The shorts got this one very right in the end.

  • Reply to

    $12,222,000 valuuation per restaurant?

    by sellhighdrinklow Jan 8, 2015 5:33 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 13, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    Only reason is that the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Yes CMG is way overvalued by a big margin right now. At best you can put a 25 to 30x multiple on them. This brings the fair value closer to 400 to 450. That said, read my first sentence.

    Could it fall and come back to reality? Sure it could. Anytime. You just cannot predict when that judgement day comes. Maybe one quarter where comps are

  • Reply to

    Google is printing money

    by eyexcelsior Jan 8, 2015 9:06 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 8, 2015 10:49 AM Flag

    They do care about the stock price. That is what keeps employees and attracts them. Stock options are huge part of Google's employee compensation packages. They know they can't ignore the stock price for very long.

    Fundamentally the business is fine. If they want to juice the stock they can do what Apple did and split 10 for 1 and maybe start a small buyback. The split would do more for them than anything. People can't wrap their head around high price stocks and that whole trophy game of racing to high numbers is so yesterday. Google needs to split.

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 8, 2015 10:48 AM Flag

    Most novice investors bail at the bottom and at the same time analysts who are late to the party also at the bottom. Good to see you couldn't take the pain. Along with this it's a great tell that the stock has bottomed. I predict 700 by year's end.

    20 multiple. 35/share in earnings for 2016. 90/share in cash right now and growing. Range could be $700 to $790 for fair value. Google will grow top and bottom around 20% in '15 and '16.

    The Firefox deal if media did homework they would realize google was keeping the lights on for them. They refused to pay up on a deal that wasn't profitable so they let Mayer pay up for it. 300 million. Maybe more. All for a browser share that is much smaller than it was when google paid 300M for it many years back. But what does Mayer care? She blew $100M on an employee (Castro) that was fired within a year. She has Alibaba money and doesn't care if market share gains are at a loss.

    BTW Google could have paid up for Firefox placement but knew it wasn't economical. Firefox is losing share each year. Most users will find their way to google and change default search provider. So what appears as a loss in share will actually help google's bottom line because they are not overpaying Mozilla Firefox in an unprofitable deal.

    Better yet remember google has put billions into many companies. They have lost billions (i.e. motorola) on these ventures and others. Firefox would have cost them 300M or so to re-up the contract. Imagine how bad it had to be for them not to do it and not care?

  • Reply to

    On Fire

    by stkguy Jan 8, 2015 9:17 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jan 8, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    CMG back to being a momentum stock. Beware once the momentum buyers bail on this one though. One soft earnings report or single digit comps and punishment will be swift by these guys.

  • equityrich equityrich Dec 22, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Pretty safe. Any other drug must compete on both efficacy and safety and be at least VERY similar on both or better. Nobody will accept taking an inferior drug in terms of efficacy or one that has many more side effects, especially dangerous ones.

    The Gilead issue is that the competitive drug is so similar in cure rate and side effects they can possibly get by with this but I suspect Gilead could bring a lawsuit against Express Scripts OR simply lower the price of their drug to compete a bit more. We'll see.

    In the meantime the biotech etf's are getting hurt from GILD so it takes all the other components right down with it when funds sell their ETF holdings. Baby with the bath water type thing...

  • equityrich equityrich Dec 16, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Would you sell it if it had stayed at your cost basis or still hold it? Makes no sense to sell a stock you liked at 540 when it is cheaper. You want to buy more when it goes lower. Be a little greedy when others are fearful. You only pay UP for stocks when everyone is overly optimistic about it. Right now everyone is negative as the normal cycle happens with stocks and companies.

    Remember apple all negative now positive? Guess what's next for apple? Yeah, negative will be coming. iPhone not growing. ipad shrinking. on and on. then the downgrades. stock drop. etc.....

    Next in the cycle for google it is now close to bottom. next quarter they could surprise with good numbers and all of a sudden everyone wants it, pays up big for it, every analyst loves it again and upgrades with higher targets. all glowing and positive. ride the waves but be on the right side of them.

  • Reply to

    Google on sale. Great valuation entry

    by equityrich Dec 16, 2014 2:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 16, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Wrong. Past 4 years eps growth rate was 14.84%. At that rate you double earnings every 5 years. You also double your stock price about every 5 years along with that. Much better than the index which averages 9% per year or a double every 8 years. In 20 years you would have 4 doubles with google and just over 2 doubles with the index.

    So 100 grand in 20 years with google is $1.6 million. In the index it is about 500k.

  • Just added to Google. 80 bucks in cash. about 420 now ex-cash. 36/share EPS in 2016. January 2016 PE comes down to 11.66 ex-cash. Google will be growing at least 15-20%. Even if it drops to 10% eps growth that is merely fair value so nice margin of safety here.

    I've gone long shares and written short puts as well. Unless Google starts seeing a complete disruption in their businesses in the next 2 years this is a layup. Tax year end selling and hedge funds dumping since google underperformed for 2014. They have to get this all off their books only to buy back in january after wash sale rule period over. Same game every year.

  • I can't seem to get a handle on what the drug in the DVT space could be worth in annual revenue. Does anyone know what the potential is for this drug and other likely candidates in the pipeline? At 7B market cap how much is (or isn't) priced in? If they don't get through phase 3 on this drug how devastating is the price drop going to be?

    All I can see now is a bunch of good candidates in various phases but don't understand the market potential for each and what the likelihood is each may get approved. Also potential addressable markets for these candidates.

    Anyone here intelligent and done analysis on the company rather than just chasing the ticker up? I would love to hear some intelligent research on Isis to better understand it. I've hit homeruns with stocks like these (i.e. Celgene) and want to wrap my head around Isis but can't find much on how the candidates are stacking up and their potential.

  • Reply to

    19? Did I miss something?

    by mtbmb1960 Dec 11, 2014 9:42 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 11, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    NO news at all. I think just such a thinly traded stock doesn't take much to move it. Orders have been strong for Arcam with some bigger customers buying in. Nothing on the radar that looks negative from my research. I put an order in limit 18.85 and hope somebody gives away their shares to me. No problem adding to this one if panic sellers are abandoning

  • Uh oh. something not good. Dow Jones just reported Tesla registrations are down 22% from the same period Jan-October of 2013

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 29, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Saw it. Awesome. Short squeeze:

    . Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/guns-bought-on-black-friday-2014-11

  • Just saw this article. Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/guns-bought-on-black-friday-2014-11

  • total United States GDP is 17 trillion. If apple hits 1 trillion in market cap that means it is worth 1/17th or almost 6% of the entire US annual gross domestic output! Can this be justified? A phone hardware maker worth 6% of the entire United States Gross Domestic Product?

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