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Apple Inc. Message Board

equityrich 1708 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 24, 2015 6:15 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Bass's patent challenges don't look good. His first one was just denied by the PTO. I am betting each and every challenge he has put forth is going to be denied. Those worried about Celgene and others patents have less to worry about this afternoon.

    Bass was shorting all the biotechs and then attempting to challenge drug company patents hoping to get them stripped so he could profit. He even setup a fund dedicated to shorting the drug co's. If the remaining challenges are all denied, and I expect they will be, that whole fund is going to have virtually unlimited losses.

  • Reply to

    no rational...

    by oilnboil427 Aug 5, 2015 1:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 5, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Markets are rarely rational. That is the reason. If you love a stock wouldn't you want it to go on sale so you could buy more of it? Rich Kinder bought half a million shares and said they are on track for the dividend to hit 2 bucks this year and go up 10% a year through 2020. That is 10% compounded.

    So dividend almost 6% today. 2016 will be 6.6%. 2017 will be 7.26%. 2018 will be 7.99%. 2019 will be 8.78% and 2020 will be 9.66%.

    Now I realize for traders 5 years is a lifetime, or maybe 3 lifetimes so that is way too long to wait for a dividend of almost 10% where on the dividend alone your money will double every 7 years after that.

    Now consider KMI stock won't trade at a price that offers buyers in 2020 a 10% yield. Probably more like a 5% yield so today's 30 stock will be $60. So investors today will get a 100% return on the stock in five years and get paid generous dividends every year along the way.

    By 2020 they will be receiving a 10% annual return plus whatever add'l capital appreciate the stock offers on their original investment right here, right now.

    Pipelines are not going away. Natgas usage is skyrocketing as coal goes away in powerplants. We will be moving lots of oil for decades. KMI is not price sensitive as it is a tollbooth for oil whether it is 40 a barrel or $100.

    For those that are curious, if KMI can maintain that 10% annual appreciation of the dividend as Rich Kinder says is possible in 5 additional years (2025) your dividend yield on today's investment comes to 15.56%.

    Happy investing

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 29, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Good move! Congrats. Sometimes it is just that easy to take the money from those who think very short term and look at charts.

  • From the conf call:

    "Our sales increased 14.1% in the quarter to $1.2 billion driven by new restaurant openings and a sales comp of 4.3%, which is right in line with the Q2 guidance of low-to-mid single digits we provided in April. The comp was driven mainly by our price increase from last year, which contributed 4% to the comp."

    I am long CMG but concerned about that last line. Of the 4.3% comp, 4% of that came from the price increase. That means without the price increase the comp was .3% or essentially flat/zero. This is extremely troubling as if comps are going to remain flat and the only growth coming is from either price hikes or adding stores it shows that the concept is either fizzling a bit or is hitting some saturation or cannibiliation.

    Thoughts? At this PE I am very concerned the market wakes up one day and my gains evaporate. Am I missing something here? It looks like the AH traders are giving CMG a pass in hopes the flat comps are due to the pork shortage and that once its back we will be back to 5-10% comps once again. I guess this is possible but certainly an unknown.

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 17, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Check the price of the IBB and JUNO along with Chipotle on July 6th and today. Pretty good calls! Hope you nibbled on it a bit.

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 6, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Probably some stuff in Biotech like ISIS or JUNO. Another way to play it with a little less risk is via IBB ETF. The IBB gets you on the massive biotech wave that we will see in the next decade plus. I expect it to handsomely outperform the S&P 500 index over the next 3, 5 and 10 years.

    There are revolutionary breakthroughs in development, Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies that are in many respects game changers. I want to be in this space for the next decade or two.

    Another company I like but would still wait for lower entry is Chipotle. It has the ability to ramp to at least 4,000 restaurants and they are about half that now. The major upside wildcard are their ShopHouse Asian and Pizzeria Locale concepts. The Shophouse could bet a couple thousand stores and Pizzeria could be 5000 or more.

    If just one of these concepts takes off marginally we will see Chipotle as a top performer over the next 5 and 10 years. I think the stock is a little pricey here so I would wait and hope for a pullback in the low 500's to start buying heavily although you could start a small opening position now.

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool is a fool

    by s1ipkn0t94102 Jul 2, 2015 11:54 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 6, 2015 12:42 AM Flag

    Why? Motley Fool looks at valuations ten years out and not ten weeks or months. Einhorn said sell at 316. It doubled from his call. Motley looks at end game. 4000 or more stores. 2.5m to 3m per store. Than possibly same with both new concepts on tap. Another 4000 or more stores. CMG might be cheap here finally

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 3, 2015 6:08 AM Flag

    If you are looking for a larger stake we now have a 20% off sale from the high so I would add here and buy more if it drops. I got in around same time and price you did so been riding this for awhile. The technology they have is disruptive and they are the leader in the space by a wide margin.

    They will drift a bit with the industrial manufacturing rate which has been volatile at times. Their fiber lasers are the future and more applications are being used for them. I like IPGP and if I didn't have such a large stake I would be adding on any weakness

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 2, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I have seen stocks drop with no information or reason like this. It happens. It is of no concern. IT is weak hands getting out. Short term holders who rode it up to around 100 and now probably have a loss and taking it. Also chart traders selling since some X day average line was broken through I am sure too.

    For a long term investor in this great company it is of no concern. It is Mr. Market giving both you and the company a chance to pickup more company shares at a better price. In 5 years time the past month will be but a blip on that chart and shareholders will be handsomely rewarded.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 30, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Even if they kept the .15% it is just $1.5B on a trillion in transactions. They would be lucky to get to $1T in transactions in 10 years. $1.5B doesn't move the needle for Apple. I suspect their rate, while extremely tiny now, will drop even further to either half that or zero as many suspect.

    Should Apple not take up a significant chunk in a few years of all transactions their bargaining power will drop dramatically.

    Apple Pay will likely not even exist on the desktop for ecommerce. Amazon gets a huge chunk of online sales and won't use apple pay in any way. Paypal is huge online as well and has no reason or method to use apple pay nor do consumers need it online. Who is going to wave their phone near their desktop?

    For anyone hanging onto Apple Pay as the savior to take up the slack when the iPhone sales start to decline (and everyone knows at some point they will - trees don't grow to the sky) I think they are fooling themselves.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 29, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Apple having their own credit cards isn't an option. Regulators wont' allow it first of all. Second of all getting into the payment industry, even for somebody as big as apple, isn't easy. Paypal is still a small player and that is despite STILL riding the rails of Visa/MC.

    Apple would have to clear all regulatory hurdles. Banking hurdles and regulations. Make deals with banks or decide to absorb it all themselves including all the fraud and risk that Visa/MC has spent decades on and has patents all over too.

    Apple running their own credit card scheme has a chance just south of zero. Cook knows this and isn't even dumb enough to waste time and money to try it. He just hopes that apple pay even at 0.00% will make people want an iphone. Problem is the reasons to upgrade now that the larger screen is out gets lower and lower.

    ATT is already doing away with subsidies so we will start to see all the carriers do the same and upgrade cycles are going to go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 6 years. This will be devastating to apple since 3/4 of their profits come from iphone and nothing else is coming close as ipad's hope has faded and is in decline.

  • This is an interesting article. Looks like Visa's standard tokenization may force apple pay to go from the tiny .15% they charge banks to zero (0.00%). So much for that revenue driver.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-choice-not-charge-android-150707513.html

  • Reply to

    Poised for breakout

    by hgpabade Jun 22, 2015 3:49 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 25, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    No news on this at all. Looks like either one large seller tripped the technical trader charts so they are chasing it down in their typical pattern. At some point it will stop and the charts turn and those guys all pile back in.

  • equityrich by equityrich Jun 23, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    With a PEG of 21 Netflix is undervalued. It should be over 100! Market cap is 40B. They need at least 2B in net profit to justify 40B valuation. How much do they have?

  • Reply to

    Why the drop?

    by jacobwseitz Jun 5, 2015 10:20 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 5, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    And FYI current buyback auth is $1 billion. If they see opportunity they may up that very quickly

  • Reply to

    Why the drop?

    by jacobwseitz Jun 5, 2015 10:20 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 5, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    If you are a long term holder you hope for LOWER prices. This lets MO buy more stock back under the current buyback authorization.

    Think of it this way. The less they have to spend to get shares back and retire them the more money for existing shareholders who stakes go up. The last thing you want for a company who does aggressive buybacks is high share prices. This is a welcome development and we can hope people panic out or get margin called and lower the price so those of us who own fractional shares of a whole company will benefit.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 2, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Just got back from mall. Kors store was busy with quite a few women in there shopping. Maybe 7 or 8. Pretty good for a post lunchtime when the mall is pretty dead. Most other stores were empty and not many people walking around the mall.

  • This is a very negative trend for Apple and a major event. Why? Consumers will get a much lower monthly fee once their phone is paid off in full. Then they will have to decide to bump it way back up if they upgrade their phone. I guarantee we will see upgrade cycles start to slow as a result.

    Consumers will enjoy lower monthly bills and will try to stretch that as long as they can. Rather than upgrade every 1 to 2 years we may begin to see ever 3 to 5 as the norm.

    Read the link below. ATT is now eliminating the subsidy which means the consumer has to pay for the phone rather than the carrier absorbing it. Ultimately this is better for the consumer where most would simply opt for a lower phone bill for longer rather than demanding the latest and greatest iphone or android for $500 to $800 paid for over one or two years.

    https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/apple-best-buy-other-retailers-201121439.html

  • Reply to

    Overreaction

    by coopersita May 27, 2015 11:38 AM
    equityrich equityrich May 27, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    PE is now under 10. 23% of the market cap lost today. $4.50 in earnings this year. Also $4.50 in cash. Back out the cash and you getting it under 9 times earnings. Now it is a possible LBO candidate

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