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Apple Inc. Message Board

equityrich 74 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Exactly. But my post was about the analysts making it sound like Apple Pay itself was a revenue driver as in people use it and apple will get paid so much on the transactions that it makes any difference. It doesn't as my analysis shows. The point was that the analysts are all dumb MBA's getting paid for shoddy work.

  • equityrich equityrich Sep 16, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Why would banks and visa/mc give them the entire 1.5% made on transactions and keep zero for themselves. Your statement is absurd.

  • Ok, either Wall street is beyond dumb or I am going nuts. analysts talking about apple pay like it could have any material affect on apple's numbers.

    Apple reported for Apple pay it rakes 15 cents out of every $100. On $100 billion in transactions apple only makes $150 million! LOL.

    So this is really bad then. Out of a trillion dollars in transactions or about 1/15th of the entire GPD apple makes $1.5 billion. this doesn't move the needle at all. (BTW apple won't be hitting a trillion for 10 years or more and maybe never).

    You could make the assumption more devices will be sold or less churn but modeling in Apple Pay revenue is nuts. Apple had almost 200B in revenue and 60B in EBITDA. It will take them 5 to 10 years to get to a trillion in transactional volume for Apple Pay, if they even get there. I think they will be lucky to see 500B in transactions in a decade.

    100% of all visa and mc transactions worldwide this year is around 5 or 6 trillion. Even if every iphone user used apple pay they are about 15% of the smartphone market meaning just under a trillion dollars in transactions. This assumes every iphone user uses apple pay for every single transaction (they can't because only 2% of the worlds terminals are NFC ready still). Also Apple won't have 100% penetration of NFC phones for half a decade or more.

    I listen to these MBA analysts on CNBC and am blown away they can't figure this #$%$ out? #$%$! How did they get these jobs? Is my math wrong????

  • As predicted by Cramer (gotta give him this one) the funds are now selling off FB so they can get loaded up on Alibaba. FB is being used as a source of funds as is Tesla and a few others. Good chance to load up on FB while the foolish funds play the games.

  • Reply to

    Yes, CELG is still CHEAP

    by classshopper Sep 11, 2014 2:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 11, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Very true and this is also what lets fundamental investors with a longer term outlook get an edge on the market and pickup bargains. I'm thankful for the insane day traders and chartists who don't care about what a company does or the financials. That irrationality allows one to destroy the market

  • Reply to

    EVERYONE KNOW CMG IS ONLY WORTH $480- $520

    by jnjinsi Sep 5, 2014 3:30 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 9, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Yes agreed but nobody knows when the sentiment shift will happen on the overly generous valuation and bring it down. Could be today, tomorrow, weeks, months or longer. This stock is trading at its highest PE ever now.

    Your price range is a bit high too. 450 plus/minus 25 points is about fair value. There will be a massive correction at the first hint of slowdown. After the price increases just put through the comps will be harder as the year laps.

    One thing that keeps me from adding to CMG besides valuation is the CEO comp. Two CEO's both being paid a combined amount that lands them in the top 5 of highest paid CEO's in the world. They collectively take about 15% to 20% of all the profit Chipotle makes. Neither holds a significant stake of shares in Chipotle. They get salary and bonuses plus options which they blow out.

  • Reply to

    Broken Stock

    by abraxaoil Sep 3, 2014 3:58 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 3, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    Just technical trading and some profit taking after the huge run. Traders and most investors are short term. What is my stock doing today? I like this because the lower the price goes the more I can buy and get add'l leverage on building out an even larger position. Bring it on...

  • equityrich by equityrich Aug 21, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    CMG's PE now sits at 65. Has that ever been higher at any point in time? You would think it would be lower considering its EPS growth is

  • Reply to

    Just sold

    by jc18630 Aug 20, 2014 12:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Stock growing at 40% plus. Trading for a multiple less than half that. On Wall Street that is a setup for an easy double from here. Stock going to $160 will put the PEG in line 1.0 which is fair value. KORS firing on all cylinders now. Was in the store last week. Wife LOVED everything they had. Spent a quick grand.

    Also she got the catalog and said she could order every single thing in there. She's always been in the fashion pocket of what's hot so I trust her call here. When she loses interest and something else is in vogue I'll move on.

    Coach was a grower for decades. Kors can have 5, 10 or 20 years of solid growth ahead. Fashion is tough but Kors and his team seem to be all over it like no other. They have taken out and shot Coach, Spade and others. You get all this at a huge discount right now at just 83/share. Forward PE is a mere 17. Nuts. I'm buying hand over fist still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    They must be right. My wife is always on the edge of fashion. She walked in the store and LOVED them. There were also a few women that came in as well and were deciding on which color they were going to purchase. I left after my wife spent a grand there and went to the food court.

    She also just got the catalog and said she could by just about everything in there. She's always been the perfect canary in the coalmine. She nailed Crocs on the way in and the way out. She nailed Coach on the way in and the way out. She's nailed quite a few others as well. When she loses interest I'll know KORS is off the beat. For now they are firing on all cylinders.

  • Over 80M in the bank. No debt. Trades today for

  • Looking at Z for possible investment. Where is all the money going to create these losses. This is an asset light high gross margin internet company. Supposed to be like Facebook but it seems none of the revenue finds its way to the profit line. Trying to understand why?

  • Amazing that next years PE is lower for KORS than for Coach right now. Coach has declining profits and revenues. KORS smoked top and bottom line earnings and growing over 40%. Same store sales through the roof for KORS and in decline for Coach. Talk about bizarro trading world.

    KORS should trade at a PE in line with its growth rate of 40 at least. Stock should be north of 150/share right now for KORS. I know some analysts have targets in the 120 range. I believe we'll see things adjust properly in the coming months and holiday season as KORS is still firing on all cylinders.

  • Reply to

    Going back into VSI on this dip today

    by technicalinvestor007 Jul 28, 2014 3:52 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 5, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    agreed. nothing really wrong with this quarter or the valuation. The selloff seems overdone as it typically is off earnings reports. Solid company. Solid numbers and growing well still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 4, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    KORS posted insanely great numbers and same store sales. They didn't "warn" but once again guided conservatively as they have since a public company. Keep in mind they have beaten top and bottom lines handily every single quarter since public. This is just short term negativity being pushed by the 4 analysts who totally blew the KORS call. All is fine with KORS right now and going forward. It's not like Coach or anyone else is touching them or a threat.

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 4, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    KORS always has guided conservatively and beat their own guidance handily. Traders far too short term in their thinking. KORS will be over $5 in 2015 and even if they slow down considerably well over $6 in 2016. A 20 PE (lower than their growth rate still in 2016) gives them 120/share target end of 2015. 50% conservative upside

  • All the numbers and guidance were fantastic. Stock trading down typical wall street head fake. way too many people went short into this and trying to create doubt from the longs to get a chance to cover. Stock was originally up 10 bucks premarket until the shorts came piling in.

    Even if KORS growth slows to a still incredible 30% (which it shows no signs of) they will earn over 5 bucks in 2015. A PE of just 20 is a 100+ per share stock. I'll stick with KORS and take shares from the shorts giving it away premarket

  • Reply to

    THESE GUYS GOT THEIR WINGS CLIPPED

    by meester_mccormik Jul 30, 2014 10:55 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 30, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Interesting that the BWLD outlook and eps growth stronger than Chipotle yet the multiple is just half of chipotle's. BWLD growing EPS at 30% and CMG just under this. PE at BWLD around 30 while CMG double that at 60. I think CMG has run too far too fast while BWLD is right around fair value based on PEG (Price to Earnings Growth).

    I think the only reason CMG is so high is the momentum players are all riding it up and they keep beating the analyst set estimates which is an arbitrary game. I've seen stocks double and triple on declining revenue and earnings for years as long as the company beats the ever lowered estimates each quarter. Interesting game.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Visa is smart. You should look at their buybacks of past and present authorization. Buyback is a better use for you, me and all shareholders. Furthermore you WANT lower prices when your company is buying back stock as Visa is. Read on Warren Buffett's philosophy on this which worked out extremely well for him. That said let's hope Visa plummets to 100! Anything lower is good for shareholders with a 5 plus year horizon

    Here is the bible on buybacks from Buffett

    http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2012/09/warren-buffett-on-share-repurchases.html

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow... opens at $226

    by bigideaportugal Jul 24, 2014 4:15 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    After hours is meaningless. Just shorts using low volume to paint the tape and make people think something was wrong.

    On the flip side as Buffett says if you are a long term holder and your company is buying back shares (as Visa is ) you want lower share prices. Why? Far more leverage on eps over the long term. Long term investors and the company should hope for lower prices. Plenty of cash (1.9B) left on the current authorization for buyback and a ton of cash on the balance sheet if they want to do more.

    Visa is a lifetime holding for me so from this perspective I encourage weak hands to sell so my company can take away their shares at much lower prices. I want to pay as little as possible. Fewer shares means higher ownership for me and higher stake on earnings and dividends in the future.

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