Excellent post and great points. Hopefully those who are both long and short read this to understand a little more about the real story. Most of the longs are using "hope" as their investing thesis. That rarely ends well.
I put Tesla in the too easy to short but too dangerous to short category. The markets can remain irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Whether judgement day comes down on Tesla in a week, month, year or longer I just don't know. I just know it will. If I could time it even just about right I could buy PUT options and walk away over 100M richer.
In the meantime Musk will continue to tweet his hyped messages that just don't seem to ever come true or hit the mark. Keep the Kool-Aid flowing for those who are willing to drink it.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Right now you get over 12 times more earnings with McDonald's than you do with Chipotle yet McDonalds market cap is less than 5x larger than Chipotle's (98B vs 22B). Looks like MCD is either underpriced, CMG is overpriced or both?
For CMG to hit MCD earnings they have to grow net income 1300% from here! However the market is pricing the CMG stock as if it is already almost halfway to that goal.
Do people know that McDonald's revenue is larger than Wendy's, BK, Taco Belle, Panera and Chipotle's combined? I laugh when media talks about how Mcdonalds is over and one foot in the grave. They simply dwarf all these other restaurants COMBINED!
Will financial media mention NET cash or just total cash! LOL. Apple has 40B in debt. Net cash is 135B now. Plus they are servicing all that debt. Higher china taxes. falling ipad sales. Watch failure. They are now one trick pony. live and die by iphone.
Gateway, Dell, Samsung, Nokia, Blackberry...all consumer hardware companies never quite panned out
Not really. the debt is only being used for buybacks and dividends. that is not much leverage unless the stock keeps going up. dividends paid out are zero leverage. You get an F for your economics class
At some point the law hits. It's just reality. Only so many dollars out there and people capable of spending those types of dollars at X intervals.
I think the large screen is a one time anomoly. I know people who had iphone 3G's and 4's that finally bit the bullet and upgraded. I couldn't believe they didn't upgrade before to the 5 or 5S at least. Anyway alot of these long cycle upgraders won't be back to the well for a long time and there will be more like them unless apple finds a must have catalyst for a new phone.
What would get you to buy another iphone now after the 6 or 6 plus? It won't be a larger screen which is what people have been wanting for years now. I think Apple milked the cow as much as they could in terms of screen size. Think about "why" the 6 is selling so well now. Why are people buying it? Large screen is the answer. Ask yourself what's next.
It seems just about everyone is long apple now. Price pop appears to be short covering. Now with everyone long the stock who is left to buy? Are you long? Will you be buying more here at 120? Do you have any more cash to add to the position at all time highs?
Will apple finish up in the green today after the short covering is over?
The market can remain irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. Don't be in the market if you can't handle prolonged down periods or crashes of up to 50%. It's not for the weak hearted.
Yes, we should see $100 sometime in the next 6 to 18 months timeframe. Facebook earnings keep chugging along and we haven't even seen the full blown implementation in two of FB dark horses namely Instagram and Whatsapp.
FB on its own could power the stock to $100 but with these two properties there is much upside from there. .
Instagram now has over 300 million monthly active users. Makes twitter look tiny. Daily Instagram users over 75 million. more than 1 out of 10 internet users on Instagram.
Instagram is a cash cow.
Also heard Whatsapp is introducing voice calling. This can be huge with a billion users and growing.
All hail Zuck!
Algobots bounding it around. Once it gets a direction they jump all over it and front run the trend. Can go either way in an instant. Could be up 20 by the close. You never know with the bots. Random.
Analysts are weathermen on Wall Street. They predict. They get it wrong and right. Doesn't matter they don't lose their job either way.
Listen to analysts at your own peril. Ignore them for your own gain. There isn't an analyst out there that is worth anything. Each has their own agenda and almost all are clueless more than you can imagine.