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VMware, Inc. Message Board

equityrich 1717 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 20, 2015 6:17 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Just drove by one here in NJ about half an hour ago and line out the door. doesn't seem to be affecting folks out here one bit

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    any lower comps will be short lived. If Chipotle finds the source quickly, and I suspect they will, they will fix it and the short attention span american public will move on and continue to mow down burritos. This will at most be a one quarter blip which in the scheme of the next decade of 40 quarters is meaningless.

    5 years from now they will be posting $40/share or more in EPS. 20 to 25 multiple gets you $800 to $1000. This assumes just 15% annual growth. 12% store growth and 3% comps.

    Short termers need to bail now and give long term thinkers who want to get rich their stock at nice cheap prices. Thank you

  • Reply to


    by vomit_breath_taste_good Nov 20, 2015 5:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    LOL. You must not live in usa. Americans have very short memories and attention spans. This won't even be an afterthought next week.

  • Reply to

    MNK up 17%

    by tradeflife Oct 23, 2015 1:07 PM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 23, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Einhorn is short the stock. Since Einhorn is usually very wrong on his stock picks people play his picks by taking the opposite position. Going against Einhorn's bets have proven to be a huge winning strategy.

  • Reply to

    MM is holding this one down

    by cassis3588 Oct 22, 2015 11:50 AM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 22, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Maybe but who cares if you are holding the stock for a decade or more? They can play the strike price game for now but in the scheme of things if ISRG keeps growing as it is that manipulation over the short term becomes irrelevant. Sure you might want to see a higher print but in reality if ISRG is buying back stock you should prefer it be lower.

    The only time I prefer my stock prices to print high is if I either plan on selling due to the stock being extremely overvalued or if there are no buybacks and none planned. Anyone who is a long term holder should root for lower prices. Imagine you and one other partner owned the entire company. However you know you want the entire company for yourself. So each day you ask to buy some of your partners shares. Do you want those prices to be high or low?

    So I say thank you to the market makers and let's just hope ISRG management is in there now buying stock and not waiting for the run up to new highs

  • equityrich equityrich Oct 1, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Icahn could ultimately lose money on his apple trade. Supply chain showing lower shipments today and if we start to see declines in unit sales apple could easily head back down under his total cost basis

  • Carl Icahn...where are you now? Get on your Twitter and start talking your own book again. You are losing billions in apple. The index has beaten apple this year

  • equityrich equityrich Oct 1, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    I sold my apple. I just don't see it beating the index going forward from here. The moment iphone sales are flat or drop the floor is going to drop. The opening weekend should have been far higher with China included and it looks like they are flat to down. I had redeployed Apple proceeds into the index when they moved into the Dow and that looks like it was a genius move by me.

  • equityrich equityrich Sep 29, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Sentiment in biotech has changed dramatically since then. NK is a binary event. It's methods will either work or won't work. IF they work the stock will be a 10, 20 or 100 bagger plus from here. If they don't work at all it goes to zero. That is a favorable reward here with a sub $1B market cap. A breakthrough from the novel approach NK is developing could be a 100B market cap company. It's well worth taking a flyer here for $10k or $20k. Worse case it goes to zero and you write off the losses against your gains. Best case it is 100B company and you make 100x on your $10k. That is a million bucks on 10 grand folks.

  • Bass's patent challenges don't look good. His first one was just denied by the PTO. I am betting each and every challenge he has put forth is going to be denied. Those worried about Celgene and others patents have less to worry about this afternoon.

    Bass was shorting all the biotechs and then attempting to challenge drug company patents hoping to get them stripped so he could profit. He even setup a fund dedicated to shorting the drug co's. If the remaining challenges are all denied, and I expect they will be, that whole fund is going to have virtually unlimited losses.

  • Reply to

    no rational...

    by oilnboil427 Aug 5, 2015 1:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 5, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Markets are rarely rational. That is the reason. If you love a stock wouldn't you want it to go on sale so you could buy more of it? Rich Kinder bought half a million shares and said they are on track for the dividend to hit 2 bucks this year and go up 10% a year through 2020. That is 10% compounded.

    So dividend almost 6% today. 2016 will be 6.6%. 2017 will be 7.26%. 2018 will be 7.99%. 2019 will be 8.78% and 2020 will be 9.66%.

    Now I realize for traders 5 years is a lifetime, or maybe 3 lifetimes so that is way too long to wait for a dividend of almost 10% where on the dividend alone your money will double every 7 years after that.

    Now consider KMI stock won't trade at a price that offers buyers in 2020 a 10% yield. Probably more like a 5% yield so today's 30 stock will be $60. So investors today will get a 100% return on the stock in five years and get paid generous dividends every year along the way.

    By 2020 they will be receiving a 10% annual return plus whatever add'l capital appreciate the stock offers on their original investment right here, right now.

    Pipelines are not going away. Natgas usage is skyrocketing as coal goes away in powerplants. We will be moving lots of oil for decades. KMI is not price sensitive as it is a tollbooth for oil whether it is 40 a barrel or $100.

    For those that are curious, if KMI can maintain that 10% annual appreciation of the dividend as Rich Kinder says is possible in 5 additional years (2025) your dividend yield on today's investment comes to 15.56%.

    Happy investing

  • Reply to


    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 29, 2015 9:34 AM Flag

    Good move! Congrats. Sometimes it is just that easy to take the money from those who think very short term and look at charts.

  • From the conf call:

    "Our sales increased 14.1% in the quarter to $1.2 billion driven by new restaurant openings and a sales comp of 4.3%, which is right in line with the Q2 guidance of low-to-mid single digits we provided in April. The comp was driven mainly by our price increase from last year, which contributed 4% to the comp."

    I am long CMG but concerned about that last line. Of the 4.3% comp, 4% of that came from the price increase. That means without the price increase the comp was .3% or essentially flat/zero. This is extremely troubling as if comps are going to remain flat and the only growth coming is from either price hikes or adding stores it shows that the concept is either fizzling a bit or is hitting some saturation or cannibiliation.

    Thoughts? At this PE I am very concerned the market wakes up one day and my gains evaporate. Am I missing something here? It looks like the AH traders are giving CMG a pass in hopes the flat comps are due to the pork shortage and that once its back we will be back to 5-10% comps once again. I guess this is possible but certainly an unknown.

  • Reply to


    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 17, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Check the price of the IBB and JUNO along with Chipotle on July 6th and today. Pretty good calls! Hope you nibbled on it a bit.

  • Reply to


    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 6, 2015 10:39 AM Flag

    Probably some stuff in Biotech like ISIS or JUNO. Another way to play it with a little less risk is via IBB ETF. The IBB gets you on the massive biotech wave that we will see in the next decade plus. I expect it to handsomely outperform the S&P 500 index over the next 3, 5 and 10 years.

    There are revolutionary breakthroughs in development, Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies that are in many respects game changers. I want to be in this space for the next decade or two.

    Another company I like but would still wait for lower entry is Chipotle. It has the ability to ramp to at least 4,000 restaurants and they are about half that now. The major upside wildcard are their ShopHouse Asian and Pizzeria Locale concepts. The Shophouse could bet a couple thousand stores and Pizzeria could be 5000 or more.

    If just one of these concepts takes off marginally we will see Chipotle as a top performer over the next 5 and 10 years. I think the stock is a little pricey here so I would wait and hope for a pullback in the low 500's to start buying heavily although you could start a small opening position now.

  • Reply to

    Motley Fool is a fool

    by s1ipkn0t94102 Jul 2, 2015 11:54 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 6, 2015 12:42 AM Flag

    Why? Motley Fool looks at valuations ten years out and not ten weeks or months. Einhorn said sell at 316. It doubled from his call. Motley looks at end game. 4000 or more stores. 2.5m to 3m per store. Than possibly same with both new concepts on tap. Another 4000 or more stores. CMG might be cheap here finally

  • Reply to


    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 3, 2015 6:08 AM Flag

    If you are looking for a larger stake we now have a 20% off sale from the high so I would add here and buy more if it drops. I got in around same time and price you did so been riding this for awhile. The technology they have is disruptive and they are the leader in the space by a wide margin.

    They will drift a bit with the industrial manufacturing rate which has been volatile at times. Their fiber lasers are the future and more applications are being used for them. I like IPGP and if I didn't have such a large stake I would be adding on any weakness

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 2, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I have seen stocks drop with no information or reason like this. It happens. It is of no concern. IT is weak hands getting out. Short term holders who rode it up to around 100 and now probably have a loss and taking it. Also chart traders selling since some X day average line was broken through I am sure too.

    For a long term investor in this great company it is of no concern. It is Mr. Market giving both you and the company a chance to pickup more company shares at a better price. In 5 years time the past month will be but a blip on that chart and shareholders will be handsomely rewarded.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 30, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Even if they kept the .15% it is just $1.5B on a trillion in transactions. They would be lucky to get to $1T in transactions in 10 years. $1.5B doesn't move the needle for Apple. I suspect their rate, while extremely tiny now, will drop even further to either half that or zero as many suspect.

    Should Apple not take up a significant chunk in a few years of all transactions their bargaining power will drop dramatically.

    Apple Pay will likely not even exist on the desktop for ecommerce. Amazon gets a huge chunk of online sales and won't use apple pay in any way. Paypal is huge online as well and has no reason or method to use apple pay nor do consumers need it online. Who is going to wave their phone near their desktop?

    For anyone hanging onto Apple Pay as the savior to take up the slack when the iPhone sales start to decline (and everyone knows at some point they will - trees don't grow to the sky) I think they are fooling themselves.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 29, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Apple having their own credit cards isn't an option. Regulators wont' allow it first of all. Second of all getting into the payment industry, even for somebody as big as apple, isn't easy. Paypal is still a small player and that is despite STILL riding the rails of Visa/MC.

    Apple would have to clear all regulatory hurdles. Banking hurdles and regulations. Make deals with banks or decide to absorb it all themselves including all the fraud and risk that Visa/MC has spent decades on and has patents all over too.

    Apple running their own credit card scheme has a chance just south of zero. Cook knows this and isn't even dumb enough to waste time and money to try it. He just hopes that apple pay even at 0.00% will make people want an iphone. Problem is the reasons to upgrade now that the larger screen is out gets lower and lower.

    ATT is already doing away with subsidies so we will start to see all the carriers do the same and upgrade cycles are going to go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 6 years. This will be devastating to apple since 3/4 of their profits come from iphone and nothing else is coming close as ipad's hope has faded and is in decline.

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