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equityrich 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 26, 2016 10:29 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich Jan 26, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Not sure I agree with that thesis. Chipotle has been around for 22 years. Over that time same store sales have been rising even on stores 15+ years old. If people were tiring from the taste those stores would be flat or in decline but they weren't (prior to the e. coli).

    In time people will forget and move on and start eating there again. Nobody today doesn't eat at Taco Bell or Jack in the Box because they fear getting sick. IF they don't eat at those places it is for wholly other reasons

    How long the climb back will be is unknow. It could be 6 months, a year or perhaps two. I suspect if there are no more incidents and their marketing is on point they will surprise everyone with just how fast people return for the flavor they seem they can't do without.

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 25, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    100% agree. I was shocked because the magnitude was off the charts. I thought there would be a line but just maybe not to the door. I figured at peak lunch at least 50% to 2/3 of the tables occupied. The only time I have ever seen it even close to this was when I got there 5 minutes before it once opened and even then within 5 minutes it was busier.

    The unknown here is not just if, but when patrons will return. I think that most will but there will be some permanent loss. I think some amount of the brand they promoted is forever damaged. Buffett says it takes a lifetime to earn your reputation and 5 minutes to destroy it. CMG is learning this lesson.

    Now they have mass uncertainty and lawsuits galore. I agree 30x is a bit rich unless people return way faster than everyone expects. I like the stock at 300/share but you never know if investors will give a shot at that. This stock has always traded at a premium so we'll see

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 25, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    Why does that location baffle you? People still terrified of getting sick from eating there and not going. I went to Shake Shak in NJ which is right next to my Chipotle which I used to go 3 to 4 times a week. Shake Shack was packed. Literally standing room only.

    This Chipotle is the busiest one I used to go to. I've been there as early as 11am and as late as 9:30PM where all tables are taken and line to or out the door. Last Sunday 12:30PM I was blown away as I have not even been by this location since the outbreak. There were only 2 tables taken in the entire restaurant and 1 person on line. By the time I left Shack it was a little better around 1:10PM with maybe 40% of the tables occupied and 3 people on the line.

    I've never been to this location as I said without lines to or out the door and anxiety of how long we would have to wait for a table. This was pretty eery how dead it was. If Chipotle comps are not off at least 50% or more I will be shocked. Granted you won't see this for the last quarter but for January and possibly december months I think so.

  • http://www.chipotle.com/founderletter

  • This is much ado about nothing. This outbreak was from 4 weeks ago. No new cases from recent outings at chipotle. Unless we see new cases that were borne from sometime in December this is all over. All that contaminated food is long out of the system.

  • Reply to

    What just happened?

    by itsagr8tday Dec 21, 2015 2:52 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 21, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    New strain? Howe does chipotle go 20 years without an E Coli and all of a sudden almost a dozen states have this? Foul play? Pretty bizzare. Especially if a different strain. Unless people have been getting E. Coli for years and nobody reported it?

  • Reply to

    Stock headed to......

    by mikedbk84 Dec 19, 2015 3:41 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 21, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    CMG always has traded at a high multiple and will likely continue to do so. CMG has more brand equity than most other food joints and a rabid following who, in time, will forget about this incident as long as there are no more major outbreaks.

    When CMG was 600 and 750 I thought it was insane. Even before the outbreak. I felt a 25 multiple at best was fair considering it was growing 15% to 20% max (more recently closer to 15%). At 750 it was trading at some of the highest multiple it has ever seen.

    CMG just is a stock that rides the rails of a premium valuation. I bought it at 45 and believe me it was way overvalued there. In retrospect a great bargain though. I dumped it at 305 after Einhorn shorted it, the market freaked out and sent it to 285. I bought a small stake back in the mid to low 500 through a few purchases to average down.

    I also wrote PUT's so I could get the stock at 500 or under should the stock ever fall. Now I get that chance. Chipotle will someday rebound. Its ROI on each store is

  • Reply to

    Price to Cash Flow

    by wtmbrkbtre Dec 8, 2015 1:01 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 8, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    Somewhat agree. I would do the following:

    5B in cash flow for 2016

    Use as follows:

    2.5B buyback shares NOW. Take advantage of 6.5 cash flow return on investment. Shrink float almost 8%. This means fewer shares to pay dividends down the road

    1.5B to ensure debt coverage.

    800M for new project funding

    200M for dividends.

    I would state clearly the intention is to use this short term moment in time as an opportunity to shrink the float and balance sheet and fund new projects out of cash flow. Forecast that in 2017 to 2018 the dividend policy will be re-visited. At that time if it makes sense to keep buying back shares and funding new projects or paying down debt I say keep the money inside the company. I don't need a dividend today. Rather trade it off for larger capital returns later and greater cap gains.

  • Reply to

    What it will take for KMI to survive

    by thewzrdaz Dec 2, 2015 7:33 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 2, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    LOL. Spoken like a true short

  • Reply to

    Looks like capitulation

    by irenaeus45 Dec 2, 2015 10:02 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 2, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Hedge funds tax loss selling. Trying to get out before the other funds and one up each other. Get it out today so they can try and get back in early January ahead of other funds who drive price up. Tax loss selling requires 31 days to repurchase. Hedgie games at play

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Just drove by one here in NJ about half an hour ago and line out the door. doesn't seem to be affecting folks out here one bit

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    any lower comps will be short lived. If Chipotle finds the source quickly, and I suspect they will, they will fix it and the short attention span american public will move on and continue to mow down burritos. This will at most be a one quarter blip which in the scheme of the next decade of 40 quarters is meaningless.

    5 years from now they will be posting $40/share or more in EPS. 20 to 25 multiple gets you $800 to $1000. This assumes just 15% annual growth. 12% store growth and 3% comps.

    Short termers need to bail now and give long term thinkers who want to get rich their stock at nice cheap prices. Thank you

  • Reply to

    BRAND IS RUINED

    by vomit_breath_taste_good Nov 20, 2015 5:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    LOL. You must not live in usa. Americans have very short memories and attention spans. This won't even be an afterthought next week.

  • Reply to

    MNK up 17%

    by tradeflife Oct 23, 2015 1:07 PM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 23, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Einhorn is short the stock. Since Einhorn is usually very wrong on his stock picks people play his picks by taking the opposite position. Going against Einhorn's bets have proven to be a huge winning strategy.

  • Reply to

    MM is holding this one down

    by cassis3588 Oct 22, 2015 11:50 AM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 22, 2015 1:08 PM Flag

    Maybe but who cares if you are holding the stock for a decade or more? They can play the strike price game for now but in the scheme of things if ISRG keeps growing as it is that manipulation over the short term becomes irrelevant. Sure you might want to see a higher print but in reality if ISRG is buying back stock you should prefer it be lower.

    The only time I prefer my stock prices to print high is if I either plan on selling due to the stock being extremely overvalued or if there are no buybacks and none planned. Anyone who is a long term holder should root for lower prices. Imagine you and one other partner owned the entire company. However you know you want the entire company for yourself. So each day you ask to buy some of your partners shares. Do you want those prices to be high or low?

    So I say thank you to the market makers and let's just hope ISRG management is in there now buying stock and not waiting for the run up to new highs

  • equityrich equityrich Oct 1, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Icahn could ultimately lose money on his apple trade. Supply chain showing lower shipments today and if we start to see declines in unit sales apple could easily head back down under his total cost basis

  • Carl Icahn...where are you now? Get on your Twitter and start talking your own book again. You are losing billions in apple. The index has beaten apple this year

  • equityrich equityrich Oct 1, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    I sold my apple. I just don't see it beating the index going forward from here. The moment iphone sales are flat or drop the floor is going to drop. The opening weekend should have been far higher with China included and it looks like they are flat to down. I had redeployed Apple proceeds into the index when they moved into the Dow and that looks like it was a genius move by me.

  • equityrich equityrich Sep 29, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Sentiment in biotech has changed dramatically since then. NK is a binary event. It's methods will either work or won't work. IF they work the stock will be a 10, 20 or 100 bagger plus from here. If they don't work at all it goes to zero. That is a favorable reward here with a sub $1B market cap. A breakthrough from the novel approach NK is developing could be a 100B market cap company. It's well worth taking a flyer here for $10k or $20k. Worse case it goes to zero and you write off the losses against your gains. Best case it is 100B company and you make 100x on your $10k. That is a million bucks on 10 grand folks.

  • Bass's patent challenges don't look good. His first one was just denied by the PTO. I am betting each and every challenge he has put forth is going to be denied. Those worried about Celgene and others patents have less to worry about this afternoon.

    Bass was shorting all the biotechs and then attempting to challenge drug company patents hoping to get them stripped so he could profit. He even setup a fund dedicated to shorting the drug co's. If the remaining challenges are all denied, and I expect they will be, that whole fund is going to have virtually unlimited losses.

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