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VMware, Inc. Message Board

equityrich 64 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    naah...sector rotation. lots of big pharma and biotech falling today. the etf's are selling off in health/bio so they take jnj, celg, etc all along for the ride. funds rotating into apple right now cuz it's "working". when that stops working they come rotate right on back and make their rounds. not hard to see why they always underperform, is it

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 9, 2015 4:12 PM Flag

    Naaah...see my post in this forum. $20 in 2016 earnings. 25x multiple on 25% eps growth. $500 to $550 target. Comps will be much lower around mid single digits and store growth only 10%. With buyback they will hit 25% eps growth.

    The current multiple is way too high and only there due to technical and momentum traders. Investors could use it and could have to get out near a short term top. Stock got ahead of itself a few years.

    I'd be a strong buyer and add to my core position once we start coming under $550 and I'd buy all the way down. If the market goes negative people might put a 20 multiple on it and you get $400 to $450 worse case but that is a longshot.

    I see 10% chance of

  • Looks like KORS business is fundamentally on solid footing. More than the main stream media hype machine would have one believe. The death of KORS is highly exaggerated.

    So I spent an hour listening and learned alot.

    1) Earnings and revenues would have both been quite a bit higher had it not been for FX (foreign currency) headwinds. It took a toll on both so if you look at constant currency basis the growth rates and financials were all actually higher. Translation Business is growing nicely and better than even the positive press release reveals.

    2) KORS is getting into wearables soon. No mention of this by any of the analysts or media hucksters

    3) Forward guidance, which main stream media morons (MSMM's) poo-poo'd as being soft, was not actually as light as they reported. Why? Foreign currency. After taking into account the extra 5 to 7 cents if you account for FX on a constant currency basis which looks through exchange rates they actually are guiding OVER both revenue and earnings estimates for next quarter! Again no mention by the MSMM's or analysts who are all too lazy to slice out an hour and actually listen to the call.

    4) We also learned that the stores this year were taking back returns from online sales at their stores this year. Last year Nordstrom was taking back returns. This year KORS was accepting returns. So this year those returns pull down same store sales whereas last year they didn't. Had this not been the case and you compared apples to apples last year and this year the same store sales would have been higher.

    5) Online sales grew 73% making up 7% of KORS total revenue. It turns out many shoppers are turning to online (amazing right) to purchase merchandise. Wider selection and more sizes. Some of this will of course pull from brick and mortar stores and it did. Had they added this into same store sales those also would have been higher.

    Listen to the conference call is my advice.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    If you are short you might want to listen to the conference call. Quite a bit was not said in the press release or main stream media coverage who wanted to stick to the narrative that KORS is over.

    Far from it. Turns out that their guidance was actually above analysts, not below it. What they didn't mention on the release but discussed on the call was that FX was in that guidance and accounts for 5 to 7 cents. Taking that into account (which they didn't on their release) on a constant currency basis their comps, earnings, revenues and guidance were ALL up higher then reported and forecast.

    Some things you gotta do the homework on. Sure it sucks listening to a one hour phone call but if your money is at stake why not. It's really hard work. Who wants to do that. Maybe only those who wish to get rewarded.

    KORS is the leading brand in its sector with a clear roadmap for continued double digit growth and the fashion icons to execute it.

    Also they are getting into wearables. Didn't hear that on the media anywhere. Hmmmm

  • Reply to

    Another analyst downgrades NOV

    by jpraschnik Feb 6, 2015 10:22 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 6, 2015 10:37 AM Flag

    It's a good opportunity. thank the analyst. It's allowing me to add aggressively to my position now. Apparently the analyst didn't listen to the conference call closely. Sure we will have a down cycle. We always do. But within a year or two max we will be out of it and NOV will lead the charge

  • Reply to

    Time to Admit a Mistake and Move On

    by alpha2735 Feb 5, 2015 8:00 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 10:01 AM Flag

    People bailing is a great sign of a bottom. Might see stock go positive by days end. Kors beat top and bottom line last 5 out of 5 quarters. It's outperforming top and bottom line for the entire sector it operates in. Just because the stock doesn't follow is a wall street mechanic thing. These things change rather quickly once the stock changes direction.

    In the short term the market is only a voting machine. Long term it's a weighing machine

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:55 AM Flag

    KORS is doing just fine. They could not grow same store sales at 40% forever. Today's comps are industry leading. No other retailer put up the comps that KORS did today. The stock is cheaper than ever.

    The reason the stock goes down is that KORS keeps guiding under analysts. That could be two problems. Not enough analysts sandbagging so KORS can guide above them or just KORS lowballing too much when they should be at least guiding to estimates. Needless to say this is now 5 for 5 quarters where they beat on top and bottom line

    Strong buy still. 15 times earnings multiple but growing over 100% faster than that. The only thing being heavily discounted with KORS is their stock

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Affordable luxury sells because women like the fashion. It isn't about "exclusivity" when she makes her purchases. KORS consistently has their finger on the fashion pulse.

    Same stores sales are slowing because 40% same store sales is not sustainable in any business.

    Please show me one retailer with comps higher than what KORS put up today?

  • Reply to

    KORS killing it - As I expected!

    by big_stock_pimp Jan 29, 2015 9:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 5, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Bad stock management. they always beat top and bottom. last 5 quarters all beats.

    stock went from 100 to 60. why? they can't keep guiding under estimates and then beating them. They need to at least guide in-line if they want to hold stock price. Now they are just going to have to get so cheap that value investors come in and start supporting the stock.

    They should be buying back stock at these prices hand over fist. Stock trades at 15 times current year earnings ex-cash and is growing well over 2x that rate. I know they are buying back but they should go all in here and borrow to pull in at least 15% of the float

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 4, 2015 11:22 AM Flag

    How's that working out for you today

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 3, 2015 5:00 PM Flag

    I would not short a momentum stock. It can go up to absurd levels like it has but the day the momentum traders leave it can drop 50% overnight.

  • Reply to

    How many of you have owned CMG since 2006...

    by cjdbs Feb 3, 2015 4:31 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 3, 2015 4:39 PM Flag

    You are only wrong for now. If they get in line with their growth rate vs earnings the stock could see 400 in a hurry. then you will be more right than you knew. Just a timing issue. You can't account for how long the market was going to irrationally price CMG too high at that massive premium to earnings. over 4x the market multiple for only 2x over market growth. It always corrects. Now with low single digit comps in 2015 lower share prices ahead

  • Wow! They went from hero to zero. Same store sales in the low single digits they are forecasting. This is a huge deceleration. I guess only so many people you can pump through a linear assembly line at each location.

  • Reply to

    Let me get this straight

    by goldentouchbronx Feb 2, 2015 6:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 6:22 PM Flag

    People are panicking out of the stock so it is depressed. stocks overshoot to the upside and downside. Right now downside overshoot. Yes it is cheap based on 2.25 2015 estimates. Should SSYS do better we could see 10% to 20% upside in a year.

    Barring a game changing product from HP which is still vaporware, I think SSYS is well positioned now and investing for the future too in order to take their share of the fast growing 3D industry. Market beating returns are ahead.

  • Reply to

    Cramer recommended to buy this stock at $122 ! ! !

    by augispr Feb 2, 2015 6:10 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 6:20 PM Flag

    Cramer means no harm. He just goes where the wind blows. Loves the market when its up. Gets depressed like the rest when its down and gets cautious often times right before a rally.

    He'll be negative on SSYS now probably when in reality it is probably at or near its bottom.

    At company forecast of around 2.25 for 2015 a 30 multiple gets you 67/share or over 10% up from here in 12 months. IF they beat that there is more upside. If they hit 3 billion in 2020 you will see market beating returns from here.

    You have to decide on 3D Printing industry as a whole and whether it has merit. I know it does from the companies I follow and have been involved in. It will only get bigger, much bigger.

    Lots of fear of what HP has up their sleeve but I wouldn't be too worried about their vaporware just yet. SSYS has lots of patents too so will be interesting if HP steps on some or many.

  • Reply to

    A question from a novice trader.

    by buddhalove88 Feb 2, 2015 5:14 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Analysts are weathermen on Wall Street. They predict. They get it wrong and right. Doesn't matter they don't lose their job either way.

    Listen to analysts at your own peril. Ignore them for your own gain. There isn't an analyst out there that is worth anything. Each has their own agenda and almost all are clueless more than you can imagine.

  • Reply to

    FB will go to $100 this year...

    by frogcheeks Feb 2, 2015 1:29 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 4:55 PM Flag

    Not relevant

  • Reply to

    What just happened?

    by solve1enigma Feb 2, 2015 9:43 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    Algobots bounding it around. Once it gets a direction they jump all over it and front run the trend. Can go either way in an instant. Could be up 20 by the close. You never know with the bots. Random.

  • Reply to

    FB will go to $100 this year...

    by frogcheeks Feb 2, 2015 1:29 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 2:38 PM Flag

    Yes, we should see $100 sometime in the next 6 to 18 months timeframe. Facebook earnings keep chugging along and we haven't even seen the full blown implementation in two of FB dark horses namely Instagram and Whatsapp.

    FB on its own could power the stock to $100 but with these two properties there is much upside from there. .

    Instagram now has over 300 million monthly active users. Makes twitter look tiny. Daily Instagram users over 75 million. more than 1 out of 10 internet users on Instagram.

    Instagram is a cash cow.

    Also heard Whatsapp is introducing voice calling. This can be huge with a billion users and growing.

    All hail Zuck!

  • Reply to

    This market is unreal.

    by exit161gsp Feb 2, 2015 12:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 2, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    The market can remain irrational far longer than you can stay solvent. Don't be in the market if you can't handle prolonged down periods or crashes of up to 50%. It's not for the weak hearted.

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