From the conf call:
"Our sales increased 14.1% in the quarter to $1.2 billion driven by new restaurant openings and a sales comp of 4.3%, which is right in line with the Q2 guidance of low-to-mid single digits we provided in April. The comp was driven mainly by our price increase from last year, which contributed 4% to the comp."
I am long CMG but concerned about that last line. Of the 4.3% comp, 4% of that came from the price increase. That means without the price increase the comp was .3% or essentially flat/zero. This is extremely troubling as if comps are going to remain flat and the only growth coming is from either price hikes or adding stores it shows that the concept is either fizzling a bit or is hitting some saturation or cannibiliation.
Thoughts? At this PE I am very concerned the market wakes up one day and my gains evaporate. Am I missing something here? It looks like the AH traders are giving CMG a pass in hopes the flat comps are due to the pork shortage and that once its back we will be back to 5-10% comps once again. I guess this is possible but certainly an unknown.
Probably some stuff in Biotech like ISIS or JUNO. Another way to play it with a little less risk is via IBB ETF. The IBB gets you on the massive biotech wave that we will see in the next decade plus. I expect it to handsomely outperform the S&P 500 index over the next 3, 5 and 10 years.
There are revolutionary breakthroughs in development, Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 studies that are in many respects game changers. I want to be in this space for the next decade or two.
Another company I like but would still wait for lower entry is Chipotle. It has the ability to ramp to at least 4,000 restaurants and they are about half that now. The major upside wildcard are their ShopHouse Asian and Pizzeria Locale concepts. The Shophouse could bet a couple thousand stores and Pizzeria could be 5000 or more.
If just one of these concepts takes off marginally we will see Chipotle as a top performer over the next 5 and 10 years. I think the stock is a little pricey here so I would wait and hope for a pullback in the low 500's to start buying heavily although you could start a small opening position now.
Why? Motley Fool looks at valuations ten years out and not ten weeks or months. Einhorn said sell at 316. It doubled from his call. Motley looks at end game. 4000 or more stores. 2.5m to 3m per store. Than possibly same with both new concepts on tap. Another 4000 or more stores. CMG might be cheap here finally
If you are looking for a larger stake we now have a 20% off sale from the high so I would add here and buy more if it drops. I got in around same time and price you did so been riding this for awhile. The technology they have is disruptive and they are the leader in the space by a wide margin.
They will drift a bit with the industrial manufacturing rate which has been volatile at times. Their fiber lasers are the future and more applications are being used for them. I like IPGP and if I didn't have such a large stake I would be adding on any weakness
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I have seen stocks drop with no information or reason like this. It happens. It is of no concern. IT is weak hands getting out. Short term holders who rode it up to around 100 and now probably have a loss and taking it. Also chart traders selling since some X day average line was broken through I am sure too.
For a long term investor in this great company it is of no concern. It is Mr. Market giving both you and the company a chance to pickup more company shares at a better price. In 5 years time the past month will be but a blip on that chart and shareholders will be handsomely rewarded.
Even if they kept the .15% it is just $1.5B on a trillion in transactions. They would be lucky to get to $1T in transactions in 10 years. $1.5B doesn't move the needle for Apple. I suspect their rate, while extremely tiny now, will drop even further to either half that or zero as many suspect.
Should Apple not take up a significant chunk in a few years of all transactions their bargaining power will drop dramatically.
Apple Pay will likely not even exist on the desktop for ecommerce. Amazon gets a huge chunk of online sales and won't use apple pay in any way. Paypal is huge online as well and has no reason or method to use apple pay nor do consumers need it online. Who is going to wave their phone near their desktop?
For anyone hanging onto Apple Pay as the savior to take up the slack when the iPhone sales start to decline (and everyone knows at some point they will - trees don't grow to the sky) I think they are fooling themselves.
Apple having their own credit cards isn't an option. Regulators wont' allow it first of all. Second of all getting into the payment industry, even for somebody as big as apple, isn't easy. Paypal is still a small player and that is despite STILL riding the rails of Visa/MC.
Apple would have to clear all regulatory hurdles. Banking hurdles and regulations. Make deals with banks or decide to absorb it all themselves including all the fraud and risk that Visa/MC has spent decades on and has patents all over too.
Apple running their own credit card scheme has a chance just south of zero. Cook knows this and isn't even dumb enough to waste time and money to try it. He just hopes that apple pay even at 0.00% will make people want an iphone. Problem is the reasons to upgrade now that the larger screen is out gets lower and lower.
ATT is already doing away with subsidies so we will start to see all the carriers do the same and upgrade cycles are going to go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 6 years. This will be devastating to apple since 3/4 of their profits come from iphone and nothing else is coming close as ipad's hope has faded and is in decline.
This is an interesting article. Looks like Visa's standard tokenization may force apple pay to go from the tiny .15% they charge banks to zero (0.00%). So much for that revenue driver.
No news on this at all. Looks like either one large seller tripped the technical trader charts so they are chasing it down in their typical pattern. At some point it will stop and the charts turn and those guys all pile back in.
If you are a long term holder you hope for LOWER prices. This lets MO buy more stock back under the current buyback authorization.
Think of it this way. The less they have to spend to get shares back and retire them the more money for existing shareholders who stakes go up. The last thing you want for a company who does aggressive buybacks is high share prices. This is a welcome development and we can hope people panic out or get margin called and lower the price so those of us who own fractional shares of a whole company will benefit.
Just got back from mall. Kors store was busy with quite a few women in there shopping. Maybe 7 or 8. Pretty good for a post lunchtime when the mall is pretty dead. Most other stores were empty and not many people walking around the mall.
This is a very negative trend for Apple and a major event. Why? Consumers will get a much lower monthly fee once their phone is paid off in full. Then they will have to decide to bump it way back up if they upgrade their phone. I guarantee we will see upgrade cycles start to slow as a result.
Consumers will enjoy lower monthly bills and will try to stretch that as long as they can. Rather than upgrade every 1 to 2 years we may begin to see ever 3 to 5 as the norm.
Read the link below. ATT is now eliminating the subsidy which means the consumer has to pay for the phone rather than the carrier absorbing it. Ultimately this is better for the consumer where most would simply opt for a lower phone bill for longer rather than demanding the latest and greatest iphone or android for $500 to $800 paid for over one or two years.
PE is now under 10. 23% of the market cap lost today. $4.50 in earnings this year. Also $4.50 in cash. Back out the cash and you getting it under 9 times earnings. Now it is a possible LBO candidate
As KORS passes under 47 now it is now a smaller market cap than Coach! Interesting considering KORS did about 200M more in revenue in the latest quarter and actually grew top and bottom line. Meanwhile coach continues its sharp revenue and profit DECLINES.
Wall Street thinks Coach is worth more than KORS today? Really? For this to be true KORS will have to actually go from growth to declines in both revenue and profits AND Coach has to at least stabilize if not grow in contrast to its never ending double digit declines.
Either Coach now needs to come down sharply or KORS is so oversold it will bounce. Either way the equilibrium between the two is out of whack today.