Icahn could ultimately lose money on his apple trade. Supply chain showing lower shipments today and if we start to see declines in unit sales apple could easily head back down under his total cost basis
Carl Icahn...where are you now? Get on your Twitter and start talking your own book again. You are losing billions in apple. The index has beaten apple this year
I sold my apple. I just don't see it beating the index going forward from here. The moment iphone sales are flat or drop the floor is going to drop. The opening weekend should have been far higher with China included and it looks like they are flat to down. I had redeployed Apple proceeds into the index when they moved into the Dow and that looks like it was a genius move by me.
Sentiment in biotech has changed dramatically since then. NK is a binary event. It's methods will either work or won't work. IF they work the stock will be a 10, 20 or 100 bagger plus from here. If they don't work at all it goes to zero. That is a favorable reward here with a sub $1B market cap. A breakthrough from the novel approach NK is developing could be a 100B market cap company. It's well worth taking a flyer here for $10k or $20k. Worse case it goes to zero and you write off the losses against your gains. Best case it is 100B company and you make 100x on your $10k. That is a million bucks on 10 grand folks.
Bass's patent challenges don't look good. His first one was just denied by the PTO. I am betting each and every challenge he has put forth is going to be denied. Those worried about Celgene and others patents have less to worry about this afternoon.
Bass was shorting all the biotechs and then attempting to challenge drug company patents hoping to get them stripped so he could profit. He even setup a fund dedicated to shorting the drug co's. If the remaining challenges are all denied, and I expect they will be, that whole fund is going to have virtually unlimited losses.
Markets are rarely rational. That is the reason. If you love a stock wouldn't you want it to go on sale so you could buy more of it? Rich Kinder bought half a million shares and said they are on track for the dividend to hit 2 bucks this year and go up 10% a year through 2020. That is 10% compounded.
So dividend almost 6% today. 2016 will be 6.6%. 2017 will be 7.26%. 2018 will be 7.99%. 2019 will be 8.78% and 2020 will be 9.66%.
Now I realize for traders 5 years is a lifetime, or maybe 3 lifetimes so that is way too long to wait for a dividend of almost 10% where on the dividend alone your money will double every 7 years after that.
Now consider KMI stock won't trade at a price that offers buyers in 2020 a 10% yield. Probably more like a 5% yield so today's 30 stock will be $60. So investors today will get a 100% return on the stock in five years and get paid generous dividends every year along the way.
By 2020 they will be receiving a 10% annual return plus whatever add'l capital appreciate the stock offers on their original investment right here, right now.
Pipelines are not going away. Natgas usage is skyrocketing as coal goes away in powerplants. We will be moving lots of oil for decades. KMI is not price sensitive as it is a tollbooth for oil whether it is 40 a barrel or $100.
For those that are curious, if KMI can maintain that 10% annual appreciation of the dividend as Rich Kinder says is possible in 5 additional years (2025) your dividend yield on today's investment comes to 15.56%.
From the conf call:
"Our sales increased 14.1% in the quarter to $1.2 billion driven by new restaurant openings and a sales comp of 4.3%, which is right in line with the Q2 guidance of low-to-mid single digits we provided in April. The comp was driven mainly by our price increase from last year, which contributed 4% to the comp."
I am long CMG but concerned about that last line. Of the 4.3% comp, 4% of that came from the price increase. That means without the price increase the comp was .3% or essentially flat/zero. This is extremely troubling as if comps are going to remain flat and the only growth coming is from either price hikes or adding stores it shows that the concept is either fizzling a bit or is hitting some saturation or cannibiliation.
Thoughts? At this PE I am very concerned the market wakes up one day and my gains evaporate. Am I missing something here? It looks like the AH traders are giving CMG a pass in hopes the flat comps are due to the pork shortage and that once its back we will be back to 5-10% comps once again. I guess this is possible but certainly an unknown.