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VMware, Inc. Message Board

equityrich 63 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 23, 2015 3:14 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
  • I just ran the chart of S&P 500 index to see how apple fared over the last 3 years compared to it. I was shocked that apple not only didn't beat the index but is just barely tie to it now. I'm going to bet the next 3 years it underperforms. Go check it out on the 3 year compare. Mindblowing that you could have had the same returns in the index over 3 years and not had to worry about timig your apple top exit and take the tax hit.

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 23, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    There are some very nervous KORS shorts downvoting here hoping and praying I am wrong. I'm never wrong.

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 22, 2015 8:15 PM Flag

    A buyout or go private would be well above 80/share. closer to 90 just gets them to fair value. KORS will earn $4.80 next year and a 20 multiple on that (still a discount to its growth rate keep in mind) would be a 96/share take out price.

    This is why KORS will start to see action in the buyout or go private if wall street doesn't recognize the value soon. PE firms always do and are more than happy to scoop up massive cash flow machines that are growing like KORS. KORS comps beat every retailer out there every single quarter for 2 years now including last quarter. This includes luxury, affordable luxury and casual.

    The stock is merely down because at the moment it wasn't "working" and the charts failed. Chart traders and momentum traders can always blowout stocks well under their fair value since valuation is not relevant to them. This is why PE firms have billionaires who get richer because the market gives gifts. Even at $100 a share any PE firm would be lucky to get this one.

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 22, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    How do you figure that? double digit growth comps, revenue, profits, same store sales and beating estimates every single quarter as public company? they can't control their stock price but they sure doing a fine job growing the business and proving analysts wrong each quarter.

    Shareholders will be rewarded when the market either wakes up (and it always does at some point) or they get taken private or acquired for a premium.

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 22, 2015 11:35 AM Flag

    Lots of people at the cash register walking out with KORS shopping bags stuffed with product. Stock prices and company performance are often not correlated on wall street over short periods of time.

    Witness KORS who has double digit comps every quarter, positive double digit growth top and bottom line, raised guidance every quarter since going public. Proved negative analysts wrong 3 quarters in a row who were claiming they were discounting. Turns out they were all wrong. But for now the stock has not paid attention to reality but it will or some PE firm will take it private soon at a nice number in the 80's or 90's and that will be that.

    KORS now trades well under 10x EBITDA so it is firmly a takeout target and if that happens every short will be crushed before they can press the cover trigger

  • At a multiple ex-cash well under 10 now and Wall Street showing zero love and respect for KORS it could be taken out by Private Equity or simply go private. At this point there is little reason for KORS to be a public company anymore and is very attractive either as a takeover target or as I said by PE and go private.

    I think shareholders will see a takeout price should it occur, around 80 to 90/share and at that price whoever gets it steals it as the cash on the balance sheet, growth and cash flow even if it went to zero tomorrow provides a 10% rate of return. Any growth at all to the bottom line just takes it up from there.

    Keep in mind (and PE firms will) that KORS has had double digit comps every quarter since going public, revenue and EPS growth in double digits every quarter, beat estimates top and bottom line every single quarter since going public and raised numbers every single quarter since going public. Makes little sense with these facts where the stock price is but Wall Street isn't always rational. It's times like this when PE firms take full advantage of the gifts of Wall Street. You heard it here first.

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 22, 2015 11:29 AM Flag

    Just got back from Vegas. KORS store in Cesars was packed. Significantly more people (at least 2x to 6x more) than the other luxury or affordable luxury brand stores in there.

  • Reply to

    Why the jump?

    by goldenheart1956 Apr 10, 2015 9:57 PM
    equityrich equityrich Apr 13, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    I think with the J&J/Google announcement on robotic surgery and ISRG's technology, patents, etc there is a strong possibility of an acquisition at a substantial premium for ISRG this year. If those guys want to get in the game they have to buy ISRG otherwise patent hurdles and time for FDA approval and doctor acceptance will be at least 7 to 10 years. That's too long. Buy vs build.

  • Reply to

    Market Insiders seem to be selling

    by spectracide Mar 27, 2015 1:20 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 27, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Sorry but nobody knows anything. This is a technical selloff. Weak hands also giving up. The chart guys selling as it falls through whatever imaginary X day line it broke through. At some point it stops. Builds "support" and then heads up. then they all buy back in as it heads back up.

    There is no news on the stock. Just technical trading mechanics

  • Reply to

    MIDD would be a perfect Buffett investment

    by renmanaz Mar 9, 2015 6:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 26, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    They have some great innovation too in the pipeline with Viking's zero preheat feature which is completely disruptive to the industry.

    Also wunder-bar acquisition which has a new product for restaurants and bars serving liquor. Basically a pour spout connected to the cloud that meters and reports every pour from every wine/liquor bottle. This eliminates all those over poured drinks, freebies and helps quality control as it meters a perfect "shot" each time. All the pours transmitted via wifi up to the cloud where management can view and monitor in realtime their liquor sales and inventory across a chain. This is a big profit booster for chains so a no brainer for them to purchase it.

  • Reply to

    MIDD would be a perfect Buffett investment

    by renmanaz Mar 9, 2015 6:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    MIDD is a textbook Buffett target. Great company, culture, product and the CEO is all Buffett. The only hurdle would not be price but whether Selim would want to be acquired by Berkshire or not.

    I think there would be advantages for Middleby as some of the corporate functions and costs could be shared/offloaded to Berkshire which is nice. More than that is they can wipe out their debt and have as much access to low cost capital as they need to grow the business further.

    Ovens and these types of durable goods are the exact kind of "boring" businesses Buffett seeks out. He would get a leading CEO into Berkshire organizatiion as well.

    I just have no idea whether Selim would have an interest in it. I'm sure Buffett would and as you said it would be in the 8B range if not a little higher. We'll see if it ever happens. As a shareholder I am mixed on it. Alone MIDD is likely to outperform over the haul as long as Selim is running it. If swallowed by Berkshire we would get a one time pop now on it but then its done. No more gain after that. Let this run and it doubles every 3 to 5 years perhaps for another decade or two.

  • Reply to


    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    If it makes you more comfortable sell 1/3 or 1/2 and let the rest ride.

  • Reply to


    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Hopefully you didn't sell at 71. I knew we had more upside here. Looks like even more than the range I suspected.

    BTW if you sell your have to pay taxes. I suspect holding onto the new combined Kraft and pocketing your $16.50 in cash they are paying you is the way to go long term.

  • Reply to


    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 24, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    I think we will see a buyout price between 75 and 80 a share. it won't be as low as 71 if 3G is indeed in talks to purchase it. At that price KRFT would have shareholder lawsuit for selling too low.

  • Interesting disconnect in the market between Coach and Kors

    KORS growing revenue, profits and same-store sales double digits. Beat every quarter. Raised estimates every quarter.

    COH declining revenue, profits and same-store sales.

    Kors trading at a significant discount on next 12 months earnings at PE 13 while COH trading to a premium of KORS at 20 PE on next 12 months earnings. Usually, it's quite the opposite and dramatically so.

    This means the market is inefficient right now due to technical traders and these things always correct. this means either COH is set to fall quite a bit or KORS is set to rise quite dramatically. It could also be a combination of both COH falling and KORS rising but regardless KORS has to trade at a higher PE than COH as it continues to grow and beat while COH continues to decline.

  • Reply to

    Yep. Confirmed Iwatch is oled supplied by LG

    by eclipse20251 Mar 1, 2015 10:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 2, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    LOL. I figured a "Hug" rally was anything over 8% and a huge rally anything under 8%. Just made the "hug" today at 8.17% :-)

    As a sidenote, eventually Apple will have to go OLED because their current screen tech is not as efficient as OLED and if they want battery life it must be OLED tech right now. When they do they will be coming to Universal and so will the other mfg's. One may even just say to hell with it and buy them at a large premium so they can lock other vendors out.

  • Reply to

    Yep. Confirmed Iwatch is oled supplied by LG

    by eclipse20251 Mar 1, 2015 10:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 2, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    We will see a hug rally off this. OLED now confirmed in Apple watch. Next will also be app,e iphone

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Sorry you don't understand how Key FOB's and security work. Go read up on how Key FOB's all have batteries on cars. If your battery dies you ain't getting in. Also see that many FOB's cost $200 to $500 to replace depending on the car.

    Key FOB's contain a short range radio transmitter. this takes power. The signal is encoded specific to that vehicle. MFG's are not going to let something like a phone be programmed with a FOB signal either for security reasons plus they want to sell you the FOB if you lose it.

    Sure it is possible that a smartphone or watch could be used but battery issues are significant compared to key fob's today. Apple would have to put in a 2nd battery just for FOB and not sure they want to do that, especially in a tiny watch. Android phones or watches could do this as well. Either way take a look at the size of FOB's today. Apple would have to shrink this down orders of magnitude because today most FOB's are bigger than the Watch is

  • Reply to

    iWatch replacing car keys

    by jambros3 Feb 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    They have thought of it but have no solution. The watch is unlikely to make it through an entire day with light usage. People will still be using their phones and the very few who buy a watch will soon wonder why.

  • Reply to

    iWatch replacing car keys

    by jambros3 Feb 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    That's great until you use the watch heavily one day or don't get a chance to charge it one morning or forget. Now you are locked out of your car. Unlike the apple watch, today's key fobs last years without charging or changing batteries. Apple Watch will be lucky to make it through a day.

    Maybe you wear it one day and forget to charge it and leave the house in the morning and go to the store. Then it goes dead. You get locked out. Then you are dead.

    Watch won't be replacing keys anytime soon until they figure out how to make the battery last a week to a month minimum. Could it be used in addition to a key? Maybe. But you still always need the key to backup the short battery life Watch so why bother.

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