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equityrich 1733 posts  |  Last Activity: May 16, 2016 11:03 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Why down over 2% today?

    by anakottsteel May 16, 2016 10:31 AM
    equityrich equityrich May 16, 2016 11:03 AM Flag

    Correct. For now quants have negative correlation programmed until that pattern breaks. Longs can relax as buy orders go back in when market pulls back

  • equityrich equityrich Apr 29, 2016 10:25 AM Flag

    They are doing something. Selling stock. All top apple executives show their lack of conviction as they sell all granted stock options hand over fist the moment they vest. Nobody holds any significant stake. Go back to 2010 to now and look at the dumping and timing. Look at their holdings. They don't believe so why should we

  • This is too much. Worst dow performer of the last year and getting worse. Icahn out. All tech and mainstream media hating on apple. Tim Cook just making thinner products of same stuff. Burning capital on a car that likely won't ever happen and if it does may not move the needle or even be successful. Cook refusing to acquire any major company and lets cash sit dead in the bank overseas.

    This is not Steve Jobs Apple anymore and it is starting to show. I'm done. Out. Can't take it anymore. Every other stock going up and is loved like Amazon. Everyone hates apple stock.

  • So I just got back from lunch at Bridgewater NJ Chipotle location. Typically this is one of their busiest stores before the outbreak debacle. Lines most of the day out the door even as late as half hour before closing.

    I went in there twice in the last two months not to eat but to see if they were busy and it was pretty dead the first time, like a ghost town. The second time it was a little busier but no more than one or two people on the line and maybe 15% of the tables occupied.

    After the latest analyst note I was interested to see how they were doing today since I was in that area. I figured I would stop there and actually eat and watch the traffic. I got in there and maybe 5 people ahead of me on line. I ordered within one minute of walking in.

    The line stayed pretty steady ( I arrived around 1PM) and actually grew over the next twenty minutes to the longest I've seen since this happened. Maybe about 15 people on the line and pretty steady with new patrons coming in. I would say about 2/3 of the tables were occupied by the time I left.

    Just one data point at one location but it was a stark contrast to just a couple months ago when at peak lunch and dinner there was anywhere between 1-2 people online and just a couple tables occupied.

    Hard to read much into just one location but I do find the mass psychology observation useful in these types of channel checks.

  • equityrich equityrich Mar 17, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    Because it isn't splitting before next week so it will never see 85 until after the split (when the stock is 170)

  • equityrich equityrich Mar 17, 2016 10:28 AM Flag

    Yes. After the 2 for 1 split I can get it for $60 but don't feel the need to wait. I will buy it here.

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 26, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Not sure I agree with that thesis. Chipotle has been around for 22 years. Over that time same store sales have been rising even on stores 15+ years old. If people were tiring from the taste those stores would be flat or in decline but they weren't (prior to the e. coli).

    In time people will forget and move on and start eating there again. Nobody today doesn't eat at Taco Bell or Jack in the Box because they fear getting sick. IF they don't eat at those places it is for wholly other reasons

    How long the climb back will be is unknow. It could be 6 months, a year or perhaps two. I suspect if there are no more incidents and their marketing is on point they will surprise everyone with just how fast people return for the flavor they seem they can't do without.

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 25, 2016 12:23 PM Flag

    100% agree. I was shocked because the magnitude was off the charts. I thought there would be a line but just maybe not to the door. I figured at peak lunch at least 50% to 2/3 of the tables occupied. The only time I have ever seen it even close to this was when I got there 5 minutes before it once opened and even then within 5 minutes it was busier.

    The unknown here is not just if, but when patrons will return. I think that most will but there will be some permanent loss. I think some amount of the brand they promoted is forever damaged. Buffett says it takes a lifetime to earn your reputation and 5 minutes to destroy it. CMG is learning this lesson.

    Now they have mass uncertainty and lawsuits galore. I agree 30x is a bit rich unless people return way faster than everyone expects. I like the stock at 300/share but you never know if investors will give a shot at that. This stock has always traded at a premium so we'll see

  • equityrich equityrich Jan 25, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    Why does that location baffle you? People still terrified of getting sick from eating there and not going. I went to Shake Shak in NJ which is right next to my Chipotle which I used to go 3 to 4 times a week. Shake Shack was packed. Literally standing room only.

    This Chipotle is the busiest one I used to go to. I've been there as early as 11am and as late as 9:30PM where all tables are taken and line to or out the door. Last Sunday 12:30PM I was blown away as I have not even been by this location since the outbreak. There were only 2 tables taken in the entire restaurant and 1 person on line. By the time I left Shack it was a little better around 1:10PM with maybe 40% of the tables occupied and 3 people on the line.

    I've never been to this location as I said without lines to or out the door and anxiety of how long we would have to wait for a table. This was pretty eery how dead it was. If Chipotle comps are not off at least 50% or more I will be shocked. Granted you won't see this for the last quarter but for January and possibly december months I think so.

  • http://www.chipotle.com/founderletter

  • This is much ado about nothing. This outbreak was from 4 weeks ago. No new cases from recent outings at chipotle. Unless we see new cases that were borne from sometime in December this is all over. All that contaminated food is long out of the system.

  • Reply to

    What just happened?

    by itsagr8tday Dec 21, 2015 2:52 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 21, 2015 3:02 PM Flag

    New strain? Howe does chipotle go 20 years without an E Coli and all of a sudden almost a dozen states have this? Foul play? Pretty bizzare. Especially if a different strain. Unless people have been getting E. Coli for years and nobody reported it?

  • Reply to

    Stock headed to......

    by mikedbk84 Dec 19, 2015 3:41 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 21, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    CMG always has traded at a high multiple and will likely continue to do so. CMG has more brand equity than most other food joints and a rabid following who, in time, will forget about this incident as long as there are no more major outbreaks.

    When CMG was 600 and 750 I thought it was insane. Even before the outbreak. I felt a 25 multiple at best was fair considering it was growing 15% to 20% max (more recently closer to 15%). At 750 it was trading at some of the highest multiple it has ever seen.

    CMG just is a stock that rides the rails of a premium valuation. I bought it at 45 and believe me it was way overvalued there. In retrospect a great bargain though. I dumped it at 305 after Einhorn shorted it, the market freaked out and sent it to 285. I bought a small stake back in the mid to low 500 through a few purchases to average down.

    I also wrote PUT's so I could get the stock at 500 or under should the stock ever fall. Now I get that chance. Chipotle will someday rebound. Its ROI on each store is

  • Reply to

    Price to Cash Flow

    by wtmbrkbtre Dec 8, 2015 1:01 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 8, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    Somewhat agree. I would do the following:

    5B in cash flow for 2016

    Use as follows:

    2.5B buyback shares NOW. Take advantage of 6.5 cash flow return on investment. Shrink float almost 8%. This means fewer shares to pay dividends down the road

    1.5B to ensure debt coverage.

    800M for new project funding

    200M for dividends.

    I would state clearly the intention is to use this short term moment in time as an opportunity to shrink the float and balance sheet and fund new projects out of cash flow. Forecast that in 2017 to 2018 the dividend policy will be re-visited. At that time if it makes sense to keep buying back shares and funding new projects or paying down debt I say keep the money inside the company. I don't need a dividend today. Rather trade it off for larger capital returns later and greater cap gains.

  • Reply to

    What it will take for KMI to survive

    by thewzrdaz Dec 2, 2015 7:33 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 2, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    LOL. Spoken like a true short

  • Reply to

    Looks like capitulation

    by irenaeus45 Dec 2, 2015 10:02 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 2, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    Hedge funds tax loss selling. Trying to get out before the other funds and one up each other. Get it out today so they can try and get back in early January ahead of other funds who drive price up. Tax loss selling requires 31 days to repurchase. Hedgie games at play

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Just drove by one here in NJ about half an hour ago and line out the door. doesn't seem to be affecting folks out here one bit

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:14 PM Flag

    any lower comps will be short lived. If Chipotle finds the source quickly, and I suspect they will, they will fix it and the short attention span american public will move on and continue to mow down burritos. This will at most be a one quarter blip which in the scheme of the next decade of 40 quarters is meaningless.

    5 years from now they will be posting $40/share or more in EPS. 20 to 25 multiple gets you $800 to $1000. This assumes just 15% annual growth. 12% store growth and 3% comps.

    Short termers need to bail now and give long term thinkers who want to get rich their stock at nice cheap prices. Thank you

  • Reply to

    BRAND IS RUINED

    by vomit_breath_taste_good Nov 20, 2015 5:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 20, 2015 6:11 PM Flag

    LOL. You must not live in usa. Americans have very short memories and attention spans. This won't even be an afterthought next week.

  • Reply to

    MNK up 17%

    by tradeflife Oct 23, 2015 1:07 PM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 23, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Einhorn is short the stock. Since Einhorn is usually very wrong on his stock picks people play his picks by taking the opposite position. Going against Einhorn's bets have proven to be a huge winning strategy.

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