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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

equityrich 30 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 3, 2015 6:08 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 3, 2015 6:08 AM Flag

    If you are looking for a larger stake we now have a 20% off sale from the high so I would add here and buy more if it drops. I got in around same time and price you did so been riding this for awhile. The technology they have is disruptive and they are the leader in the space by a wide margin.

    They will drift a bit with the industrial manufacturing rate which has been volatile at times. Their fiber lasers are the future and more applications are being used for them. I like IPGP and if I didn't have such a large stake I would be adding on any weakness

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Crash

    by bikefeller Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 2, 2015 12:45 PM Flag

    I have seen stocks drop with no information or reason like this. It happens. It is of no concern. IT is weak hands getting out. Short term holders who rode it up to around 100 and now probably have a loss and taking it. Also chart traders selling since some X day average line was broken through I am sure too.

    For a long term investor in this great company it is of no concern. It is Mr. Market giving both you and the company a chance to pickup more company shares at a better price. In 5 years time the past month will be but a blip on that chart and shareholders will be handsomely rewarded.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 30, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    Even if they kept the .15% it is just $1.5B on a trillion in transactions. They would be lucky to get to $1T in transactions in 10 years. $1.5B doesn't move the needle for Apple. I suspect their rate, while extremely tiny now, will drop even further to either half that or zero as many suspect.

    Should Apple not take up a significant chunk in a few years of all transactions their bargaining power will drop dramatically.

    Apple Pay will likely not even exist on the desktop for ecommerce. Amazon gets a huge chunk of online sales and won't use apple pay in any way. Paypal is huge online as well and has no reason or method to use apple pay nor do consumers need it online. Who is going to wave their phone near their desktop?

    For anyone hanging onto Apple Pay as the savior to take up the slack when the iPhone sales start to decline (and everyone knows at some point they will - trees don't grow to the sky) I think they are fooling themselves.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 29, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Apple having their own credit cards isn't an option. Regulators wont' allow it first of all. Second of all getting into the payment industry, even for somebody as big as apple, isn't easy. Paypal is still a small player and that is despite STILL riding the rails of Visa/MC.

    Apple would have to clear all regulatory hurdles. Banking hurdles and regulations. Make deals with banks or decide to absorb it all themselves including all the fraud and risk that Visa/MC has spent decades on and has patents all over too.

    Apple running their own credit card scheme has a chance just south of zero. Cook knows this and isn't even dumb enough to waste time and money to try it. He just hopes that apple pay even at 0.00% will make people want an iphone. Problem is the reasons to upgrade now that the larger screen is out gets lower and lower.

    ATT is already doing away with subsidies so we will start to see all the carriers do the same and upgrade cycles are going to go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 6 years. This will be devastating to apple since 3/4 of their profits come from iphone and nothing else is coming close as ipad's hope has faded and is in decline.

  • This is an interesting article. Looks like Visa's standard tokenization may force apple pay to go from the tiny .15% they charge banks to zero (0.00%). So much for that revenue driver.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-choice-not-charge-android-150707513.html

  • Reply to

    Poised for breakout

    by hgpabade Jun 22, 2015 3:49 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 25, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    No news on this at all. Looks like either one large seller tripped the technical trader charts so they are chasing it down in their typical pattern. At some point it will stop and the charts turn and those guys all pile back in.

  • equityrich by equityrich Jun 23, 2015 4:43 PM Flag

    With a PEG of 21 Netflix is undervalued. It should be over 100! Market cap is 40B. They need at least 2B in net profit to justify 40B valuation. How much do they have?

  • Reply to

    Why the drop?

    by jacobwseitz Jun 5, 2015 10:20 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 5, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    And FYI current buyback auth is $1 billion. If they see opportunity they may up that very quickly

  • Reply to

    Why the drop?

    by jacobwseitz Jun 5, 2015 10:20 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jun 5, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    If you are a long term holder you hope for LOWER prices. This lets MO buy more stock back under the current buyback authorization.

    Think of it this way. The less they have to spend to get shares back and retire them the more money for existing shareholders who stakes go up. The last thing you want for a company who does aggressive buybacks is high share prices. This is a welcome development and we can hope people panic out or get margin called and lower the price so those of us who own fractional shares of a whole company will benefit.

  • equityrich equityrich Jun 2, 2015 3:43 PM Flag

    Just got back from mall. Kors store was busy with quite a few women in there shopping. Maybe 7 or 8. Pretty good for a post lunchtime when the mall is pretty dead. Most other stores were empty and not many people walking around the mall.

  • This is a very negative trend for Apple and a major event. Why? Consumers will get a much lower monthly fee once their phone is paid off in full. Then they will have to decide to bump it way back up if they upgrade their phone. I guarantee we will see upgrade cycles start to slow as a result.

    Consumers will enjoy lower monthly bills and will try to stretch that as long as they can. Rather than upgrade every 1 to 2 years we may begin to see ever 3 to 5 as the norm.

    Read the link below. ATT is now eliminating the subsidy which means the consumer has to pay for the phone rather than the carrier absorbing it. Ultimately this is better for the consumer where most would simply opt for a lower phone bill for longer rather than demanding the latest and greatest iphone or android for $500 to $800 paid for over one or two years.

    https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/apple-best-buy-other-retailers-201121439.html

  • Reply to

    Overreaction

    by coopersita May 27, 2015 11:38 AM
    equityrich equityrich May 27, 2015 11:45 AM Flag

    PE is now under 10. 23% of the market cap lost today. $4.50 in earnings this year. Also $4.50 in cash. Back out the cash and you getting it under 9 times earnings. Now it is a possible LBO candidate

  • As KORS passes under 47 now it is now a smaller market cap than Coach! Interesting considering KORS did about 200M more in revenue in the latest quarter and actually grew top and bottom line. Meanwhile coach continues its sharp revenue and profit DECLINES.

    Wall Street thinks Coach is worth more than KORS today? Really? For this to be true KORS will have to actually go from growth to declines in both revenue and profits AND Coach has to at least stabilize if not grow in contrast to its never ending double digit declines.

    Either Coach now needs to come down sharply or KORS is so oversold it will bounce. Either way the equilibrium between the two is out of whack today.

  • Reply to

    Forward PE of 12

    by highflier2go May 13, 2015 12:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich May 21, 2015 12:14 PM Flag

    There is no retailer putting up SSS as strong as KORS

  • Reply to

    Forward PE of 12

    by highflier2go May 13, 2015 12:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich May 20, 2015 10:25 AM Flag

    Look at the profit margin difference between UA and KORS. Also the SSS. KORS has every retailer beat, bar none. Yet it trades for multiples less than even Coach which has had over 2 years of HEAVY declines in revenue, profit and SSS.

    This is just market inefficiency at work. Nothing new. It corrects eventually whether it be directly in the market or via going private LBO or somebody acquiring.

    KORS Is now Closing in on just 10 times next years net profit and under 7 times EBiTDA. Typical takeouts are between 7 and 10 times EBITDA. If the market gives you no credit and your are printing cash as KORS is it usually doesn't take long for things to get fixed.

    The $1B in cash and no debt make it a prime LBO target as well. LBO operators look for lots of cash in the company and little debt. We shall see. I'm loading up on call options. KORS may be my biggest homerun before 2015 ends. Stock will be somewhere between 75 and 100

  • Reply to

    A simple way to understand why apple is so undervalued

    by ditzil May 19, 2015 12:46 PM
    equityrich equityrich May 19, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    LOL. Good luck with that

  • Reply to

    Forward PE of 12

    by highflier2go May 13, 2015 12:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich May 18, 2015 10:02 PM Flag

    SSS stores are slowing because 40% was not sustainable. IT had to slow. Show me any retailer putting up the revenue, profit or SSS growth as KORS is right now. Good luck. There aren't any. Nobody is comping like KORS

  • Reply to

    Forward PE of 12

    by highflier2go May 13, 2015 12:16 PM
    equityrich equityrich May 18, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    there is now chatter of a leveraged buyout. I suspect a takeout price would be in the 80 to 90 range now based on multiple of EBITDA to Enterprise Value typical in LBO's. I won't be surprised if I wake up any morning now with the news should KORS continue to trade at this multiple and their pristine balance sheet with almost $1B in cash and zero debt.

  • Usually crazy calls like Carl's are signs of a top. Could this be peak apple? DId Carl just nail it?

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