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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

equityrich 73 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 21, 2014 9:40 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich by equityrich Aug 21, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    CMG's PE now sits at 65. Has that ever been higher at any point in time? You would think it would be lower considering its EPS growth is

  • Reply to

    Just sold

    by jc18630 Aug 20, 2014 12:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Stock growing at 40% plus. Trading for a multiple less than half that. On Wall Street that is a setup for an easy double from here. Stock going to $160 will put the PEG in line 1.0 which is fair value. KORS firing on all cylinders now. Was in the store last week. Wife LOVED everything they had. Spent a quick grand.

    Also she got the catalog and said she could order every single thing in there. She's always been in the fashion pocket of what's hot so I trust her call here. When she loses interest and something else is in vogue I'll move on.

    Coach was a grower for decades. Kors can have 5, 10 or 20 years of solid growth ahead. Fashion is tough but Kors and his team seem to be all over it like no other. They have taken out and shot Coach, Spade and others. You get all this at a huge discount right now at just 83/share. Forward PE is a mere 17. Nuts. I'm buying hand over fist still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    They must be right. My wife is always on the edge of fashion. She walked in the store and LOVED them. There were also a few women that came in as well and were deciding on which color they were going to purchase. I left after my wife spent a grand there and went to the food court.

    She also just got the catalog and said she could by just about everything in there. She's always been the perfect canary in the coalmine. She nailed Crocs on the way in and the way out. She nailed Coach on the way in and the way out. She's nailed quite a few others as well. When she loses interest I'll know KORS is off the beat. For now they are firing on all cylinders.

  • Over 80M in the bank. No debt. Trades today for

  • Looking at Z for possible investment. Where is all the money going to create these losses. This is an asset light high gross margin internet company. Supposed to be like Facebook but it seems none of the revenue finds its way to the profit line. Trying to understand why?

  • Amazing that next years PE is lower for KORS than for Coach right now. Coach has declining profits and revenues. KORS smoked top and bottom line earnings and growing over 40%. Same store sales through the roof for KORS and in decline for Coach. Talk about bizarro trading world.

    KORS should trade at a PE in line with its growth rate of 40 at least. Stock should be north of 150/share right now for KORS. I know some analysts have targets in the 120 range. I believe we'll see things adjust properly in the coming months and holiday season as KORS is still firing on all cylinders.

  • Reply to

    Going back into VSI on this dip today

    by technicalinvestor007 Jul 28, 2014 3:52 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 5, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    agreed. nothing really wrong with this quarter or the valuation. The selloff seems overdone as it typically is off earnings reports. Solid company. Solid numbers and growing well still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 4, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    KORS posted insanely great numbers and same store sales. They didn't "warn" but once again guided conservatively as they have since a public company. Keep in mind they have beaten top and bottom lines handily every single quarter since public. This is just short term negativity being pushed by the 4 analysts who totally blew the KORS call. All is fine with KORS right now and going forward. It's not like Coach or anyone else is touching them or a threat.

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 4, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    KORS always has guided conservatively and beat their own guidance handily. Traders far too short term in their thinking. KORS will be over $5 in 2015 and even if they slow down considerably well over $6 in 2016. A 20 PE (lower than their growth rate still in 2016) gives them 120/share target end of 2015. 50% conservative upside

  • All the numbers and guidance were fantastic. Stock trading down typical wall street head fake. way too many people went short into this and trying to create doubt from the longs to get a chance to cover. Stock was originally up 10 bucks premarket until the shorts came piling in.

    Even if KORS growth slows to a still incredible 30% (which it shows no signs of) they will earn over 5 bucks in 2015. A PE of just 20 is a 100+ per share stock. I'll stick with KORS and take shares from the shorts giving it away premarket

  • Reply to

    THESE GUYS GOT THEIR WINGS CLIPPED

    by meester_mccormik Jul 30, 2014 10:55 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 30, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Interesting that the BWLD outlook and eps growth stronger than Chipotle yet the multiple is just half of chipotle's. BWLD growing EPS at 30% and CMG just under this. PE at BWLD around 30 while CMG double that at 60. I think CMG has run too far too fast while BWLD is right around fair value based on PEG (Price to Earnings Growth).

    I think the only reason CMG is so high is the momentum players are all riding it up and they keep beating the analyst set estimates which is an arbitrary game. I've seen stocks double and triple on declining revenue and earnings for years as long as the company beats the ever lowered estimates each quarter. Interesting game.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Visa is smart. You should look at their buybacks of past and present authorization. Buyback is a better use for you, me and all shareholders. Furthermore you WANT lower prices when your company is buying back stock as Visa is. Read on Warren Buffett's philosophy on this which worked out extremely well for him. That said let's hope Visa plummets to 100! Anything lower is good for shareholders with a 5 plus year horizon

    Here is the bible on buybacks from Buffett

    http://www.valueinvestingworld.com/2012/09/warren-buffett-on-share-repurchases.html

  • Reply to

    Tomorrow... opens at $226

    by bigideaportugal Jul 24, 2014 4:15 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 24, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    After hours is meaningless. Just shorts using low volume to paint the tape and make people think something was wrong.

    On the flip side as Buffett says if you are a long term holder and your company is buying back shares (as Visa is ) you want lower share prices. Why? Far more leverage on eps over the long term. Long term investors and the company should hope for lower prices. Plenty of cash (1.9B) left on the current authorization for buyback and a ton of cash on the balance sheet if they want to do more.

    Visa is a lifetime holding for me so from this perspective I encourage weak hands to sell so my company can take away their shares at much lower prices. I want to pay as little as possible. Fewer shares means higher ownership for me and higher stake on earnings and dividends in the future.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 23, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    The interesting thing is many of my kids friends had larger screen phones and then went to an iphone 5 which is much smaller. They had no problem with the smaller phone.

    My point was that with the demographic from kids, teens, young adults and extending into the 20's the screen size may not be as important as people are thinking. Furthermore this is exactly what Tim Cook and Steve Jobs said themselves! It is the reason they never did a large iphone.

    They may ship one and show that yes there is some demand but it may not be 100% of the market. What if it is just 1/3 of the market? That means that anyone who wants and has a smaller iphone 4 or 5 may not upgrade. Trouble for apple. Just food for thought.

  • I just asked my teenager son and his friends (ages 15-16) if they wanted a larger iphone and they all said no. They didn't want some big screen to put in their pocket and carry around. 3 of them moved out of the S4 and went to iphone 5S and liked the smaller size better. Their eyes are all 20/20 so they don't seem to be bothered by the small screen at all. Most even keep their screens so dim I can barely see it but they have no issue.

    Could the large screen phone not be a huge success? Small data point from my son and friends but it is telling and not at all what i expected. My eyes are not great and I want the larger screen. Maybe a bifurcation between young and old.

  • Reply to

    Homerun BEAT!!!

    by certainprft Jul 22, 2014 4:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 22, 2014 4:26 PM Flag

    Solid beat all around plus positive comments from CEO on trends. The turn is finally here.

  • equityrich equityrich Jul 21, 2014 7:15 PM Flag

    I'd pay up to $100 for a chipotle burrito.

  • Reply to

    SSS

    by robynrokn Jul 21, 2014 4:12 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 21, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Technically the comp includes about a 6% price increase so the comp look through is actually 11%. In other words without a price increase next year when they lap this quarter and assuming they can only keep up the pace it will be 11%. If they can't keep the pace it will be lower than 11%. Still anything over a few percentage is good for a restuarant although cmg's valuation still so high they need to do better and be in that 15% range to sustain this stock price.

  • Reply to

    There are only 2 things we know for sure

    by hbass1952 Jul 18, 2014 10:18 AM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 18, 2014 11:07 AM Flag

    You have to understand Wall Streets conflict of interest. Their business model is getting you to buy and sell and buy again then sell again. The more the better. How to do this? Upgrades, downgrades and upgrades again. I'm sure you have seen the ill timed calls by analysts who downgrade at the bottom and upgrade at the top. This is what happens most of the time because they are all late to the price moves.

    However never confuse short term price moves and broker calls with anything that has to do with a company's performance. they are 2 separate things. Brokerage firms need you to keep buying and selling over and over. Stop doing that and they are out of a job. Watch for their methods and tactics to get you to do these actions. Your best bet is to take no action.

    KORS is fine. They have been blowing the doors off and continue to eat up share from competitors and grow in the areas which they offer products. Earnings will settle this and you will see the guys that just downgraded it move to upgrades, raise price targets and do so after the stock runs up to new highs. They won't comment on their recent horrific calls this week and just how wrong they were. They will look forward and expect the sheep to follow and chase the stock back up right after they just sold it.

    Don't get complacent because I guarantee they will play the game with KORS over and over the same as they do with all stocks for the last 100 years. The good part is knowing this, you can take advantage of it and make a ton of money. I have.

  • Reply to

    Rumors of KORS Demise...

    by qofaslave69 Jul 17, 2014 12:24 PM
    equityrich equityrich Jul 17, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    Michael Kors rises after analyst sees less discounting than peers
    Shares of accessories designer Michael Kors (KORS) are slightly higher in a down market after Credit Suisse said that the company's brands are less likely to be on sale than those of its competitors. WHAT'S NEW: In a note to investors, Credit Suisse analyst Christian Buss wrote that Michael Kors' products are "one of the least discounted brands available during the seasonal clearance period ahead of early fall shipments." At mid-tier department stores, 25% of Michael Kors' products are on sale with an average markdown of 27%, Buss reported. On average, 35% of the products of the company's peers are on sale, at an average discount of 27%, the analyst stated. Additionally, Michael Kors' channel strategy provides it with multiple advantages, including brand integrity and limits on markdowns, Buss believes. Buss wrote that he was "compelled" by the recent drop in the stock, and reiterated a $107 price target and Outperform rating on the shares. WHAT'S NOTABLE: Also upbeat on Michael Kors today was research firm Canaccord. Markdowns of the company's products are not any larger than last year, and concerns about large discounts on its products have created a buying opportunity, the firm contended. Canaccord continues to believe that the accessories maker has strong long-term growth opportunities, and it kept a $123 price target and Buy rating on the shares. PRICE ACTION: In mid-afternoon trading, Michael Kors gained 2% to $83. Two of the company's competitors, Coach (COH) and Kate Spade (KATE), rose fractionally.

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