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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

equityrich 28 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 hours ago Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich 10 hours ago Flag

    You are 100% correct. That was my target based on the rational PE versus the insane momentum valuation traders were giving it. I didn't chage it in the 600's thankfully. Instead I wrote short PUTS with strikes from 540 down to 480 with premiums of around 50 each putting my cost if I was PUT the stock around that 450 level.

    The stock was insane trading at these valuations and even though CMG traded high in the past this was by far the highest ever. It had to come down and we'll see multiples compress painfully for the longs.

    If comp's are 5% next year plus 10% store growth you get 15%. Add small premium and you get a PE of 20 to 25 so fair value is really 400 to 500 which is why I pegged the midpoint at 450 for my PUTS. I think this stock trades into the 400's just not sure if the low or high range of it. Another 100 plus points of pain for the longs coming.

  • The total payout they just said was the same. So instead of giving shares and diluting they are giving cold hard cash to the executives. How does that help shareholders????????

  • Reply to

    Legitimate discusion

    by lenny_mir Sep 26, 2014 12:40 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 26, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    The drop is not rational as many market moves are not. The forward PE on Coach is now lower by a few points then KORS. Even if KORS growth dropped 2/3 of where it is the company would STILL be growing and quite fast still. Compare to COH which is still shrinking yet valued higher than KORS?

    In summary. there is no rational reason. On a comparable basis and even standing alone KORS is wildly undervalued. May be the technical/chart traders dumping because it passed some trendline or whatever. Stock fair price is over 100.

  • Reply to

    I, I just don't understand

    by sam.payson Sep 24, 2014 5:17 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 24, 2014 7:57 PM Flag

    Bide your time and when it falls 25% then short it. At that point the longs and momo guys will be bailing hard and you can make money on the downside. GPRO is just the annointed momentum flavor of the day. It will get old and traders will move on to the next belle of the ball

  • Reply to

    Apple’s iPhone 6 Plus prone to bending

    by freefossilorg Sep 23, 2014 7:38 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 23, 2014 11:13 PM Flag

    Not good for a device costing as much as 500 bucks on a contract! Apple has failed on this one

  • equityrich equityrich Sep 16, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    Exactly. But my post was about the analysts making it sound like Apple Pay itself was a revenue driver as in people use it and apple will get paid so much on the transactions that it makes any difference. It doesn't as my analysis shows. The point was that the analysts are all dumb MBA's getting paid for shoddy work.

  • equityrich equityrich Sep 16, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Why would banks and visa/mc give them the entire 1.5% made on transactions and keep zero for themselves. Your statement is absurd.

  • Ok, either Wall street is beyond dumb or I am going nuts. analysts talking about apple pay like it could have any material affect on apple's numbers.

    Apple reported for Apple pay it rakes 15 cents out of every $100. On $100 billion in transactions apple only makes $150 million! LOL.

    So this is really bad then. Out of a trillion dollars in transactions or about 1/15th of the entire GPD apple makes $1.5 billion. this doesn't move the needle at all. (BTW apple won't be hitting a trillion for 10 years or more and maybe never).

    You could make the assumption more devices will be sold or less churn but modeling in Apple Pay revenue is nuts. Apple had almost 200B in revenue and 60B in EBITDA. It will take them 5 to 10 years to get to a trillion in transactional volume for Apple Pay, if they even get there. I think they will be lucky to see 500B in transactions in a decade.

    100% of all visa and mc transactions worldwide this year is around 5 or 6 trillion. Even if every iphone user used apple pay they are about 15% of the smartphone market meaning just under a trillion dollars in transactions. This assumes every iphone user uses apple pay for every single transaction (they can't because only 2% of the worlds terminals are NFC ready still). Also Apple won't have 100% penetration of NFC phones for half a decade or more.

    I listen to these MBA analysts on CNBC and am blown away they can't figure this #$%$ out? #$%$! How did they get these jobs? Is my math wrong????

  • As predicted by Cramer (gotta give him this one) the funds are now selling off FB so they can get loaded up on Alibaba. FB is being used as a source of funds as is Tesla and a few others. Good chance to load up on FB while the foolish funds play the games.

  • Reply to

    Yes, CELG is still CHEAP

    by classshopper Sep 11, 2014 2:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 11, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Very true and this is also what lets fundamental investors with a longer term outlook get an edge on the market and pickup bargains. I'm thankful for the insane day traders and chartists who don't care about what a company does or the financials. That irrationality allows one to destroy the market

  • Reply to

    EVERYONE KNOW CMG IS ONLY WORTH $480- $520

    by jnjinsi Sep 5, 2014 3:30 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 9, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Yes agreed but nobody knows when the sentiment shift will happen on the overly generous valuation and bring it down. Could be today, tomorrow, weeks, months or longer. This stock is trading at its highest PE ever now.

    Your price range is a bit high too. 450 plus/minus 25 points is about fair value. There will be a massive correction at the first hint of slowdown. After the price increases just put through the comps will be harder as the year laps.

    One thing that keeps me from adding to CMG besides valuation is the CEO comp. Two CEO's both being paid a combined amount that lands them in the top 5 of highest paid CEO's in the world. They collectively take about 15% to 20% of all the profit Chipotle makes. Neither holds a significant stake of shares in Chipotle. They get salary and bonuses plus options which they blow out.

  • Reply to

    Broken Stock

    by abraxaoil Sep 3, 2014 3:58 PM
    equityrich equityrich Sep 3, 2014 4:05 PM Flag

    Just technical trading and some profit taking after the huge run. Traders and most investors are short term. What is my stock doing today? I like this because the lower the price goes the more I can buy and get add'l leverage on building out an even larger position. Bring it on...

  • equityrich by equityrich Aug 21, 2014 9:40 AM Flag

    CMG's PE now sits at 65. Has that ever been higher at any point in time? You would think it would be lower considering its EPS growth is

  • Reply to

    Just sold

    by jc18630 Aug 20, 2014 12:47 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    Stock growing at 40% plus. Trading for a multiple less than half that. On Wall Street that is a setup for an easy double from here. Stock going to $160 will put the PEG in line 1.0 which is fair value. KORS firing on all cylinders now. Was in the store last week. Wife LOVED everything they had. Spent a quick grand.

    Also she got the catalog and said she could order every single thing in there. She's always been in the fashion pocket of what's hot so I trust her call here. When she loses interest and something else is in vogue I'll move on.

    Coach was a grower for decades. Kors can have 5, 10 or 20 years of solid growth ahead. Fashion is tough but Kors and his team seem to be all over it like no other. They have taken out and shot Coach, Spade and others. You get all this at a huge discount right now at just 83/share. Forward PE is a mere 17. Nuts. I'm buying hand over fist still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 20, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    They must be right. My wife is always on the edge of fashion. She walked in the store and LOVED them. There were also a few women that came in as well and were deciding on which color they were going to purchase. I left after my wife spent a grand there and went to the food court.

    She also just got the catalog and said she could by just about everything in there. She's always been the perfect canary in the coalmine. She nailed Crocs on the way in and the way out. She nailed Coach on the way in and the way out. She's nailed quite a few others as well. When she loses interest I'll know KORS is off the beat. For now they are firing on all cylinders.

  • Over 80M in the bank. No debt. Trades today for

  • Looking at Z for possible investment. Where is all the money going to create these losses. This is an asset light high gross margin internet company. Supposed to be like Facebook but it seems none of the revenue finds its way to the profit line. Trying to understand why?

  • Amazing that next years PE is lower for KORS than for Coach right now. Coach has declining profits and revenues. KORS smoked top and bottom line earnings and growing over 40%. Same store sales through the roof for KORS and in decline for Coach. Talk about bizarro trading world.

    KORS should trade at a PE in line with its growth rate of 40 at least. Stock should be north of 150/share right now for KORS. I know some analysts have targets in the 120 range. I believe we'll see things adjust properly in the coming months and holiday season as KORS is still firing on all cylinders.

  • Reply to

    Going back into VSI on this dip today

    by technicalinvestor007 Jul 28, 2014 3:52 PM
    equityrich equityrich Aug 5, 2014 9:46 AM Flag

    agreed. nothing really wrong with this quarter or the valuation. The selloff seems overdone as it typically is off earnings reports. Solid company. Solid numbers and growing well still

  • equityrich equityrich Aug 4, 2014 9:01 AM Flag

    KORS posted insanely great numbers and same store sales. They didn't "warn" but once again guided conservatively as they have since a public company. Keep in mind they have beaten top and bottom lines handily every single quarter since public. This is just short term negativity being pushed by the 4 analysts who totally blew the KORS call. All is fine with KORS right now and going forward. It's not like Coach or anyone else is touching them or a threat.

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