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Amazon.com Inc. Message Board

equityrich 22 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 22, 2014 10:55 AM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • equityrich equityrich Dec 22, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    Pretty safe. Any other drug must compete on both efficacy and safety and be at least VERY similar on both or better. Nobody will accept taking an inferior drug in terms of efficacy or one that has many more side effects, especially dangerous ones.

    The Gilead issue is that the competitive drug is so similar in cure rate and side effects they can possibly get by with this but I suspect Gilead could bring a lawsuit against Express Scripts OR simply lower the price of their drug to compete a bit more. We'll see.

    In the meantime the biotech etf's are getting hurt from GILD so it takes all the other components right down with it when funds sell their ETF holdings. Baby with the bath water type thing...

  • equityrich equityrich Dec 16, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Would you sell it if it had stayed at your cost basis or still hold it? Makes no sense to sell a stock you liked at 540 when it is cheaper. You want to buy more when it goes lower. Be a little greedy when others are fearful. You only pay UP for stocks when everyone is overly optimistic about it. Right now everyone is negative as the normal cycle happens with stocks and companies.

    Remember apple all negative now positive? Guess what's next for apple? Yeah, negative will be coming. iPhone not growing. ipad shrinking. on and on. then the downgrades. stock drop. etc.....

    Next in the cycle for google it is now close to bottom. next quarter they could surprise with good numbers and all of a sudden everyone wants it, pays up big for it, every analyst loves it again and upgrades with higher targets. all glowing and positive. ride the waves but be on the right side of them.

  • Reply to

    Google on sale. Great valuation entry

    by equityrich Dec 16, 2014 2:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 16, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Wrong. Past 4 years eps growth rate was 14.84%. At that rate you double earnings every 5 years. You also double your stock price about every 5 years along with that. Much better than the index which averages 9% per year or a double every 8 years. In 20 years you would have 4 doubles with google and just over 2 doubles with the index.

    So 100 grand in 20 years with google is $1.6 million. In the index it is about 500k.

  • Just added to Google. 80 bucks in cash. about 420 now ex-cash. 36/share EPS in 2016. January 2016 PE comes down to 11.66 ex-cash. Google will be growing at least 15-20%. Even if it drops to 10% eps growth that is merely fair value so nice margin of safety here.

    I've gone long shares and written short puts as well. Unless Google starts seeing a complete disruption in their businesses in the next 2 years this is a layup. Tax year end selling and hedge funds dumping since google underperformed for 2014. They have to get this all off their books only to buy back in january after wash sale rule period over. Same game every year.

  • I can't seem to get a handle on what the drug in the DVT space could be worth in annual revenue. Does anyone know what the potential is for this drug and other likely candidates in the pipeline? At 7B market cap how much is (or isn't) priced in? If they don't get through phase 3 on this drug how devastating is the price drop going to be?

    All I can see now is a bunch of good candidates in various phases but don't understand the market potential for each and what the likelihood is each may get approved. Also potential addressable markets for these candidates.

    Anyone here intelligent and done analysis on the company rather than just chasing the ticker up? I would love to hear some intelligent research on Isis to better understand it. I've hit homeruns with stocks like these (i.e. Celgene) and want to wrap my head around Isis but can't find much on how the candidates are stacking up and their potential.

  • Reply to

    19? Did I miss something?

    by mtbmb1960 Dec 11, 2014 9:42 AM
    equityrich equityrich Dec 11, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    NO news at all. I think just such a thinly traded stock doesn't take much to move it. Orders have been strong for Arcam with some bigger customers buying in. Nothing on the radar that looks negative from my research. I put an order in limit 18.85 and hope somebody gives away their shares to me. No problem adding to this one if panic sellers are abandoning

  • Uh oh. something not good. Dow Jones just reported Tesla registrations are down 22% from the same period Jan-October of 2013

  • equityrich equityrich Nov 29, 2014 3:15 PM Flag

    Saw it. Awesome. Short squeeze:

    . Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/guns-bought-on-black-friday-2014-11

  • Just saw this article. Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/guns-bought-on-black-friday-2014-11

  • total United States GDP is 17 trillion. If apple hits 1 trillion in market cap that means it is worth 1/17th or almost 6% of the entire US annual gross domestic output! Can this be justified? A phone hardware maker worth 6% of the entire United States Gross Domestic Product?

  • Reply to

    Losses widen for splunk

    by equityrich Nov 20, 2014 4:24 PM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 25, 2014 6:51 PM Flag

    Excellent point and quite accurate! At some point the music stops but nobody knows when. I remember in 2000 when people looked at revenue growth, eyeballs, etc. I'm sure it's different this time....lol

  • equityrich by equityrich Nov 20, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    Losses have widened for splunk as revenue rises. this is a non scalable business. the higher the revenue the higher the losses. at this revenue level for a software only company they should be wildly profitable. something is very wrong here. that said the stock should go up as this baby is a momentum darling! to 100 and beyond!!!

  • 1 Billion in cash. No debt. About 10 times EBITDA right now. Square in the territory for them to be taken private.

    If they are not talking to PE firms now about going private they should be using that buyback for a better than 10% ROI. Revenues grew 30% last quarter and stock tanked while Kate Spade also grew same amount, 30% and the stock shot up like a rocket. KORS trades at significant discount to the ever shrinking top and bottom line coach and grows faster than spade.

    KORS management can't do much to deal with traders and such but they can put that $1B to work before the technical charts turn around and the stock hits new highs. I want that $1B in under 70/share and not at 100/share. Based on the falling price it doesn't look like they are in buying yet.

  • Reply to

    KATE Misses

    by qofaslave69 Nov 6, 2014 8:40 AM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 6, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    KORS best weapon right now is that buyback. Let's hope they are aggressive with it at these low prices. The Spade vs KORS compare shows that the market often gets it backward. These things even out over time. Sometimes months or other times years.

  • Reply to

    Kate Spade meets at .02 misses on revenues

    by hbass1952 Nov 6, 2014 8:46 AM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 6, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    Irrational market

  • Reply to

    Earnings Release

    by gumby4162 Nov 4, 2014 7:28 AM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 4, 2014 8:09 AM Flag

    I looked at all the numbers. They were excellent in top and bottom. Business is very healthy and growth continues to be strong. I see no bad marks. Guidance likely conservative. Buyback is bullish and as an owner I want lower prices from Mr. Market. The lower the price the more that one billion buys back. This is a lesson from Buffett. Pray these shares stay low when buybacks are running. The long term benefit is preferable to a short term price increase of the shares

  • Reply to

    Programmed to fail....

    by jeff_spicoli82 Nov 3, 2014 4:49 PM
    equityrich equityrich Nov 4, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    Stock down big premarket

  • equityrich equityrich Oct 27, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    This is a good point. If sales plummet along with gas prices and tesla goes Chapter 11 you can't return your Tesla with this guarantee. Musk does need to personally guarantee this. Things in these momentum stocks can change very fast especially in the car industry. They will be spending like a drunken sailor on the gigafactory and if wall street says sorry no more money from us and if musk can't get more free money fromn the US taxpayer things go south fast I think

  • Reply to

    Just noticed something on the Tesla site

    by creephhi Oct 27, 2014 11:38 AM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 27, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    But wait..there's more! BMW service is FREE for 4 years. Everything. Tesla is $400 to $600 per year. There goes half the savings that was left as this is $50/month more for the Tesla vs any BMW

  • Reply to

    Momentum Over - Should be $450 yielding 3%

    by hdhdhfhurf Oct 21, 2014 2:15 PM
    equityrich equityrich Oct 21, 2014 4:09 PM Flag

    You are 100% correct. That was my target based on the rational PE versus the insane momentum valuation traders were giving it. I didn't chage it in the 600's thankfully. Instead I wrote short PUTS with strikes from 540 down to 480 with premiums of around 50 each putting my cost if I was PUT the stock around that 450 level.

    The stock was insane trading at these valuations and even though CMG traded high in the past this was by far the highest ever. It had to come down and we'll see multiples compress painfully for the longs.

    If comp's are 5% next year plus 10% store growth you get 15%. Add small premium and you get a PE of 20 to 25 so fair value is really 400 to 500 which is why I pegged the midpoint at 450 for my PUTS. I think this stock trades into the 400's just not sure if the low or high range of it. Another 100 plus points of pain for the longs coming.

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