It is pricey but also the only company in the world besides google with as many users/members. Close your eyes and buy it.
Be fearful when others are greedy. If this was a pizza joint down the block no rational investor would purchase the entire business growing at 15% per year at 3 times that growth rate. Using any DCF or valuation method you want it this price for CMG is grossly overpaying for a business. You are buying a 2.08% earnings yield right now based on forward projections. At 15% growth it will take a long time for this investment to make sense.
That sense CMG (like TSLA, AMZN, NFLX) has now disconnected from the company underlying it. These are all now trading tickers. Momentum tickers. The earnings (a miss by CMG in this case or same with AMZN) are no longer relevant. What matters is that it keeps going up and the chart and momentum players will continue to pile on. This will happen until it stops. Could be a week, month or years. You never know with these. At some point though it WILL matter.
I do not recommend shorting these names. I sold most of my CMG. Playing with the houses money. At these levels it makes no sense to wait for the day when the ticker jockey's run to the next ticker
Looks like the "we will speak again in 3 weeks' is timed for roughly right before or right after the earnings and conference call. Is this a choreographed timing for the announcement of the massive buyback? At 150B they can take back 1/3 of the shares which is what they should have done 6 months ago.
Too bad Cook didn't listen to the email I sent him then which told him the same thing except he could have got the stock for under 400 bucks and been up 20 percent AND it would have been even more accretive to earnings. Yes he chose to ignore my email suggesting a massive 100B to 200B buyback. Son of a #$%$!
They are nuts if they don't. Trading well over 100 times next years optimistic estimates.
My assumptions in the market show that the demand for 100k electric only vehicles that today come along with a subsidy (and won't soon) is limited. Tesla is riding the front side of the demand curve but once the initial demand is satisfied and used Tesla's start hitting the market as well the sales direct from Tesla will slow. Even at today's stock price they have to grow orders of magnitude over what wall street is estimating.
They should take advantage of this bubble and do the secondary of 10 million to 30 million shares to raise 2 billion to 6 billion and put a floor under the coming fall.
I don't think I've seen a PEG this high before since the dotcom bubble. Yahoo shows it as 16.54. Tesla would have to outperform growth estimates by 15 fold to justify todays price. What month does the bubble pop? That will be the time to buy some PUT contracts in quantity
Apple "could" win but it would have to care about its stock.
They should split the stock 10 for 1. The last time there was a rumor about this the stock shot up like a rocket. You can't play the option hedges unless you have almost 50k to play with. This shuts people out and keeps smaller investors from buying shares as well. It also leads to psychology of expensive stocks as anything with a high price must be expensive (not true but the psychology never breaks this anchor). Witness the obsession with apple hitting 1000
2nd they should have and still could do a massive buyback as icahn suggests. Buyback 50% of the float if they have any conviction in apple's future. Part of it is self financing as it saves 50% of the dividends they would have to pay annually. The rest can come from cash flow and debt. Even if not 50% they need to do at least 1/3 if they care (they don't though)
All Apple executives typically sell all their stock the moment it vests. go check the holdings of the board and execs. Most hold zero to very few shares (in hundreds). These execs and board have historically held very little to no stock the moment it had vested. This latest sale follows the same patterns
Are you kidding me? Have you tasted coke and coke products? They are incredible. I'm amazed their sales are not even higher. Soda is simply delicious. I'll take it over that other american passtime of coffee anyday
Two reasons. Under armor is a more heavily traded stock while Sierra is thinly traded. Sierra is a new recommendation while UA is not.
Look at the volume at noon and u see it explode the second the newsletter hit. The stock will pull back as day traders take profits
The run is 100% from the Motley Fool reco. They release the newsletter new EST. You can see the spike right as it hits although a little front running is apparent. somebody knew right before and went in.
In a way a newsletter can almost become self fulfilling in its own performance. If you have a newsletter with performance then people follow you and your stock picks get exposure. The stocks run up or carry higher PE's and returns as a result of the picks. Fool readers are less traders and more holders so they tighten up their own supply.
That said I've done extremely well with the fool letters and picks. They have some ideas I never would have known about before they hit mainstream like ISRG, CMG, CELG.
Not smart enough. He could have bought it 10% cheaper. Maybe 20% cheaper by end of week
It would attract more employees due to stock options. It would help retain employees. It would change perception that apple isn't a dying company as flagging stock prices cause employees, customers, vendors and Wall Street to associate this with a failing company. Does anyone thin tesla , amazon or Netflix are failing. If they looked at their financials they would but the stock prices (for now) tell a different story so that is the one everyone believes
I predict Icahn explains to Cook that IF he wants to see the stock rebound which will take employee, wall street and consumer sentiment UP with it that he MUST do a 150B buyback. Not over 3 years but NOW. If they do they buy back about 1/3 the company. Part of it is self financing since dividends no longer need to be paid out to those shares bought back.
If they go big you'll also have massive accumulation of the stock over a few months time. This will propel the stock to 600 to 650 range as Icahn predicted and knows it would. IT's just a matter if Cook cares at all about the finance and stock side of the business. If he doesn#$%$ dead in the water. If he does then borrowing at 4% and buying back at least 150B if not 200B would bring the stock within reach of all time highs.
As it does this it breaks technical indicators on the upside so the technical traders all pile on. Then the momentum guys who don't even care about valuation join in. You could have a run up and overshoot to 1000. At that point the analysts will all chase it. Nobody left to buy and it comes back down to 600-750.
Mark this post as this is how it will play out IF Cook is willing to play bull and not be a #$%$