Bide your time and when it falls 25% then short it. At that point the longs and momo guys will be bailing hard and you can make money on the downside. GPRO is just the annointed momentum flavor of the day. It will get old and traders will move on to the next belle of the ball
The drop is not rational as many market moves are not. The forward PE on Coach is now lower by a few points then KORS. Even if KORS growth dropped 2/3 of where it is the company would STILL be growing and quite fast still. Compare to COH which is still shrinking yet valued higher than KORS?
In summary. there is no rational reason. On a comparable basis and even standing alone KORS is wildly undervalued. May be the technical/chart traders dumping because it passed some trendline or whatever. Stock fair price is over 100.
The total payout they just said was the same. So instead of giving shares and diluting they are giving cold hard cash to the executives. How does that help shareholders????????
You are 100% correct. That was my target based on the rational PE versus the insane momentum valuation traders were giving it. I didn't chage it in the 600's thankfully. Instead I wrote short PUTS with strikes from 540 down to 480 with premiums of around 50 each putting my cost if I was PUT the stock around that 450 level.
The stock was insane trading at these valuations and even though CMG traded high in the past this was by far the highest ever. It had to come down and we'll see multiples compress painfully for the longs.
If comp's are 5% next year plus 10% store growth you get 15%. Add small premium and you get a PE of 20 to 25 so fair value is really 400 to 500 which is why I pegged the midpoint at 450 for my PUTS. I think this stock trades into the 400's just not sure if the low or high range of it. Another 100 plus points of pain for the longs coming.
But wait..there's more! BMW service is FREE for 4 years. Everything. Tesla is $400 to $600 per year. There goes half the savings that was left as this is $50/month more for the Tesla vs any BMW
This is a good point. If sales plummet along with gas prices and tesla goes Chapter 11 you can't return your Tesla with this guarantee. Musk does need to personally guarantee this. Things in these momentum stocks can change very fast especially in the car industry. They will be spending like a drunken sailor on the gigafactory and if wall street says sorry no more money from us and if musk can't get more free money fromn the US taxpayer things go south fast I think
I looked at all the numbers. They were excellent in top and bottom. Business is very healthy and growth continues to be strong. I see no bad marks. Guidance likely conservative. Buyback is bullish and as an owner I want lower prices from Mr. Market. The lower the price the more that one billion buys back. This is a lesson from Buffett. Pray these shares stay low when buybacks are running. The long term benefit is preferable to a short term price increase of the shares
KORS best weapon right now is that buyback. Let's hope they are aggressive with it at these low prices. The Spade vs KORS compare shows that the market often gets it backward. These things even out over time. Sometimes months or other times years.
1 Billion in cash. No debt. About 10 times EBITDA right now. Square in the territory for them to be taken private.
If they are not talking to PE firms now about going private they should be using that buyback for a better than 10% ROI. Revenues grew 30% last quarter and stock tanked while Kate Spade also grew same amount, 30% and the stock shot up like a rocket. KORS trades at significant discount to the ever shrinking top and bottom line coach and grows faster than spade.
KORS management can't do much to deal with traders and such but they can put that $1B to work before the technical charts turn around and the stock hits new highs. I want that $1B in under 70/share and not at 100/share. Based on the falling price it doesn't look like they are in buying yet.
Losses have widened for splunk as revenue rises. this is a non scalable business. the higher the revenue the higher the losses. at this revenue level for a software only company they should be wildly profitable. something is very wrong here. that said the stock should go up as this baby is a momentum darling! to 100 and beyond!!!
Excellent point and quite accurate! At some point the music stops but nobody knows when. I remember in 2000 when people looked at revenue growth, eyeballs, etc. I'm sure it's different this time....lol
total United States GDP is 17 trillion. If apple hits 1 trillion in market cap that means it is worth 1/17th or almost 6% of the entire US annual gross domestic output! Can this be justified? A phone hardware maker worth 6% of the entire United States Gross Domestic Product?
Just saw this article. Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:
Saw it. Awesome. Short squeeze:
. Looks like everyone went nuts for guns black friday. NIC check every 3 seconds. Over 50% higher than typical black friday NIC check boom. Read:
Uh oh. something not good. Dow Jones just reported Tesla registrations are down 22% from the same period Jan-October of 2013
NO news at all. I think just such a thinly traded stock doesn't take much to move it. Orders have been strong for Arcam with some bigger customers buying in. Nothing on the radar that looks negative from my research. I put an order in limit 18.85 and hope somebody gives away their shares to me. No problem adding to this one if panic sellers are abandoning
I can't seem to get a handle on what the drug in the DVT space could be worth in annual revenue. Does anyone know what the potential is for this drug and other likely candidates in the pipeline? At 7B market cap how much is (or isn't) priced in? If they don't get through phase 3 on this drug how devastating is the price drop going to be?
All I can see now is a bunch of good candidates in various phases but don't understand the market potential for each and what the likelihood is each may get approved. Also potential addressable markets for these candidates.
Anyone here intelligent and done analysis on the company rather than just chasing the ticker up? I would love to hear some intelligent research on Isis to better understand it. I've hit homeruns with stocks like these (i.e. Celgene) and want to wrap my head around Isis but can't find much on how the candidates are stacking up and their potential.