Losses have widened for splunk as revenue rises. this is a non scalable business. the higher the revenue the higher the losses. at this revenue level for a software only company they should be wildly profitable. something is very wrong here. that said the stock should go up as this baby is a momentum darling! to 100 and beyond!!!
1 Billion in cash. No debt. About 10 times EBITDA right now. Square in the territory for them to be taken private.
If they are not talking to PE firms now about going private they should be using that buyback for a better than 10% ROI. Revenues grew 30% last quarter and stock tanked while Kate Spade also grew same amount, 30% and the stock shot up like a rocket. KORS trades at significant discount to the ever shrinking top and bottom line coach and grows faster than spade.
KORS management can't do much to deal with traders and such but they can put that $1B to work before the technical charts turn around and the stock hits new highs. I want that $1B in under 70/share and not at 100/share. Based on the falling price it doesn't look like they are in buying yet.
KORS best weapon right now is that buyback. Let's hope they are aggressive with it at these low prices. The Spade vs KORS compare shows that the market often gets it backward. These things even out over time. Sometimes months or other times years.
I looked at all the numbers. They were excellent in top and bottom. Business is very healthy and growth continues to be strong. I see no bad marks. Guidance likely conservative. Buyback is bullish and as an owner I want lower prices from Mr. Market. The lower the price the more that one billion buys back. This is a lesson from Buffett. Pray these shares stay low when buybacks are running. The long term benefit is preferable to a short term price increase of the shares
This is a good point. If sales plummet along with gas prices and tesla goes Chapter 11 you can't return your Tesla with this guarantee. Musk does need to personally guarantee this. Things in these momentum stocks can change very fast especially in the car industry. They will be spending like a drunken sailor on the gigafactory and if wall street says sorry no more money from us and if musk can't get more free money fromn the US taxpayer things go south fast I think
But wait..there's more! BMW service is FREE for 4 years. Everything. Tesla is $400 to $600 per year. There goes half the savings that was left as this is $50/month more for the Tesla vs any BMW
You are 100% correct. That was my target based on the rational PE versus the insane momentum valuation traders were giving it. I didn't chage it in the 600's thankfully. Instead I wrote short PUTS with strikes from 540 down to 480 with premiums of around 50 each putting my cost if I was PUT the stock around that 450 level.
The stock was insane trading at these valuations and even though CMG traded high in the past this was by far the highest ever. It had to come down and we'll see multiples compress painfully for the longs.
If comp's are 5% next year plus 10% store growth you get 15%. Add small premium and you get a PE of 20 to 25 so fair value is really 400 to 500 which is why I pegged the midpoint at 450 for my PUTS. I think this stock trades into the 400's just not sure if the low or high range of it. Another 100 plus points of pain for the longs coming.
The total payout they just said was the same. So instead of giving shares and diluting they are giving cold hard cash to the executives. How does that help shareholders????????
The drop is not rational as many market moves are not. The forward PE on Coach is now lower by a few points then KORS. Even if KORS growth dropped 2/3 of where it is the company would STILL be growing and quite fast still. Compare to COH which is still shrinking yet valued higher than KORS?
In summary. there is no rational reason. On a comparable basis and even standing alone KORS is wildly undervalued. May be the technical/chart traders dumping because it passed some trendline or whatever. Stock fair price is over 100.
Bide your time and when it falls 25% then short it. At that point the longs and momo guys will be bailing hard and you can make money on the downside. GPRO is just the annointed momentum flavor of the day. It will get old and traders will move on to the next belle of the ball
Exactly. But my post was about the analysts making it sound like Apple Pay itself was a revenue driver as in people use it and apple will get paid so much on the transactions that it makes any difference. It doesn't as my analysis shows. The point was that the analysts are all dumb MBA's getting paid for shoddy work.
Why would banks and visa/mc give them the entire 1.5% made on transactions and keep zero for themselves. Your statement is absurd.
Ok, either Wall street is beyond dumb or I am going nuts. analysts talking about apple pay like it could have any material affect on apple's numbers.
Apple reported for Apple pay it rakes 15 cents out of every $100. On $100 billion in transactions apple only makes $150 million! LOL.
So this is really bad then. Out of a trillion dollars in transactions or about 1/15th of the entire GPD apple makes $1.5 billion. this doesn't move the needle at all. (BTW apple won't be hitting a trillion for 10 years or more and maybe never).
You could make the assumption more devices will be sold or less churn but modeling in Apple Pay revenue is nuts. Apple had almost 200B in revenue and 60B in EBITDA. It will take them 5 to 10 years to get to a trillion in transactional volume for Apple Pay, if they even get there. I think they will be lucky to see 500B in transactions in a decade.
100% of all visa and mc transactions worldwide this year is around 5 or 6 trillion. Even if every iphone user used apple pay they are about 15% of the smartphone market meaning just under a trillion dollars in transactions. This assumes every iphone user uses apple pay for every single transaction (they can't because only 2% of the worlds terminals are NFC ready still). Also Apple won't have 100% penetration of NFC phones for half a decade or more.
I listen to these MBA analysts on CNBC and am blown away they can't figure this #$%$ out? #$%$! How did they get these jobs? Is my math wrong????
As predicted by Cramer (gotta give him this one) the funds are now selling off FB so they can get loaded up on Alibaba. FB is being used as a source of funds as is Tesla and a few others. Good chance to load up on FB while the foolish funds play the games.
Very true and this is also what lets fundamental investors with a longer term outlook get an edge on the market and pickup bargains. I'm thankful for the insane day traders and chartists who don't care about what a company does or the financials. That irrationality allows one to destroy the market
Yes agreed but nobody knows when the sentiment shift will happen on the overly generous valuation and bring it down. Could be today, tomorrow, weeks, months or longer. This stock is trading at its highest PE ever now.
Your price range is a bit high too. 450 plus/minus 25 points is about fair value. There will be a massive correction at the first hint of slowdown. After the price increases just put through the comps will be harder as the year laps.
One thing that keeps me from adding to CMG besides valuation is the CEO comp. Two CEO's both being paid a combined amount that lands them in the top 5 of highest paid CEO's in the world. They collectively take about 15% to 20% of all the profit Chipotle makes. Neither holds a significant stake of shares in Chipotle. They get salary and bonuses plus options which they blow out.
Just technical trading and some profit taking after the huge run. Traders and most investors are short term. What is my stock doing today? I like this because the lower the price goes the more I can buy and get add'l leverage on building out an even larger position. Bring it on...