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Intuitive Surgical, Inc. Message Board

equityrich 65 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 27, 2015 1:37 PM Member since: Apr 16, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Market Insiders seem to be selling

    by spectracide Mar 27, 2015 1:20 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 27, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Sorry but nobody knows anything. This is a technical selloff. Weak hands also giving up. The chart guys selling as it falls through whatever imaginary X day line it broke through. At some point it stops. Builds "support" and then heads up. then they all buy back in as it heads back up.

    There is no news on the stock. Just technical trading mechanics

  • Reply to

    MIDD would be a perfect Buffett investment

    by renmanaz Mar 9, 2015 6:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 26, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    They have some great innovation too in the pipeline with Viking's zero preheat feature which is completely disruptive to the industry.

    Also wunder-bar acquisition which has a new product for restaurants and bars serving liquor. Basically a pour spout connected to the cloud that meters and reports every pour from every wine/liquor bottle. This eliminates all those over poured drinks, freebies and helps quality control as it meters a perfect "shot" each time. All the pours transmitted via wifi up to the cloud where management can view and monitor in realtime their liquor sales and inventory across a chain. This is a big profit booster for chains so a no brainer for them to purchase it.

  • Reply to

    MIDD would be a perfect Buffett investment

    by renmanaz Mar 9, 2015 6:43 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 9:51 PM Flag

    MIDD is a textbook Buffett target. Great company, culture, product and the CEO is all Buffett. The only hurdle would not be price but whether Selim would want to be acquired by Berkshire or not.

    I think there would be advantages for Middleby as some of the corporate functions and costs could be shared/offloaded to Berkshire which is nice. More than that is they can wipe out their debt and have as much access to low cost capital as they need to grow the business further.

    Ovens and these types of durable goods are the exact kind of "boring" businesses Buffett seeks out. He would get a leading CEO into Berkshire organizatiion as well.

    I just have no idea whether Selim would have an interest in it. I'm sure Buffett would and as you said it would be in the 8B range if not a little higher. We'll see if it ever happens. As a shareholder I am mixed on it. Alone MIDD is likely to outperform over the haul as long as Selim is running it. If swallowed by Berkshire we would get a one time pop now on it but then its done. No more gain after that. Let this run and it doubles every 3 to 5 years perhaps for another decade or two.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    If it makes you more comfortable sell 1/3 or 1/2 and let the rest ride.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 25, 2015 11:24 AM Flag

    Hopefully you didn't sell at 71. I knew we had more upside here. Looks like even more than the range I suspected.

    BTW if you sell your have to pay taxes. I suspect holding onto the new combined Kraft and pocketing your $16.50 in cash they are paying you is the way to go long term.

  • Reply to

    Question

    by redshirtsophomore Mar 24, 2015 8:09 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 24, 2015 8:31 PM Flag

    I think we will see a buyout price between 75 and 80 a share. it won't be as low as 71 if 3G is indeed in talks to purchase it. At that price KRFT would have shareholder lawsuit for selling too low.

  • Interesting disconnect in the market between Coach and Kors

    KORS growing revenue, profits and same-store sales double digits. Beat every quarter. Raised estimates every quarter.

    COH declining revenue, profits and same-store sales.

    Kors trading at a significant discount on next 12 months earnings at PE 13 while COH trading to a premium of KORS at 20 PE on next 12 months earnings. Usually, it's quite the opposite and dramatically so.

    This means the market is inefficient right now due to technical traders and these things always correct. this means either COH is set to fall quite a bit or KORS is set to rise quite dramatically. It could also be a combination of both COH falling and KORS rising but regardless KORS has to trade at a higher PE than COH as it continues to grow and beat while COH continues to decline.

  • Reply to

    Yep. Confirmed Iwatch is oled supplied by LG

    by eclipse20251 Mar 1, 2015 10:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 2, 2015 8:21 PM Flag

    LOL. I figured a "Hug" rally was anything over 8% and a huge rally anything under 8%. Just made the "hug" today at 8.17% :-)

    As a sidenote, eventually Apple will have to go OLED because their current screen tech is not as efficient as OLED and if they want battery life it must be OLED tech right now. When they do they will be coming to Universal and so will the other mfg's. One may even just say to hell with it and buy them at a large premium so they can lock other vendors out.

  • Reply to

    Yep. Confirmed Iwatch is oled supplied by LG

    by eclipse20251 Mar 1, 2015 10:42 PM
    equityrich equityrich Mar 2, 2015 8:09 AM Flag

    We will see a hug rally off this. OLED now confirmed in Apple watch. Next will also be app,e iphone

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    Sorry you don't understand how Key FOB's and security work. Go read up on how Key FOB's all have batteries on cars. If your battery dies you ain't getting in. Also see that many FOB's cost $200 to $500 to replace depending on the car.

    Key FOB's contain a short range radio transmitter. this takes power. The signal is encoded specific to that vehicle. MFG's are not going to let something like a phone be programmed with a FOB signal either for security reasons plus they want to sell you the FOB if you lose it.

    Sure it is possible that a smartphone or watch could be used but battery issues are significant compared to key fob's today. Apple would have to put in a 2nd battery just for FOB and not sure they want to do that, especially in a tiny watch. Android phones or watches could do this as well. Either way take a look at the size of FOB's today. Apple would have to shrink this down orders of magnitude because today most FOB's are bigger than the Watch is

  • Reply to

    iWatch replacing car keys

    by jambros3 Feb 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    They have thought of it but have no solution. The watch is unlikely to make it through an entire day with light usage. People will still be using their phones and the very few who buy a watch will soon wonder why.

  • Reply to

    iWatch replacing car keys

    by jambros3 Feb 27, 2015 1:33 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 27, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    That's great until you use the watch heavily one day or don't get a chance to charge it one morning or forget. Now you are locked out of your car. Unlike the apple watch, today's key fobs last years without charging or changing batteries. Apple Watch will be lucky to make it through a day.

    Maybe you wear it one day and forget to charge it and leave the house in the morning and go to the store. Then it goes dead. You get locked out. Then you are dead.

    Watch won't be replacing keys anytime soon until they figure out how to make the battery last a week to a month minimum. Could it be used in addition to a key? Maybe. But you still always need the key to backup the short battery life Watch so why bother.

  • Cook says Watch can replace your car key. That's great until you use the watch heavily one day or don't get a chance to charge it one morning or forget. Now you are locked out of your car. Unlike the apple watch, today's key fobs last years without charging or changing batteries. Apple Watch will be lucky to make it through a day.

    Maybe you wear it one day and forget to charge it and leave the house in the morning and go to the store. Then it goes dead. You get locked out. Then you are dead.

    Watch won't be replacing keys anytime soon until they figure out how to make the battery last a week to a month minimum. Could it be used in addition to a key? Maybe. But you still always need the key to backup the short battery life Watch so why bother

  • Reply to

    congratulations fellow longs. patience pays off

    by cccr2008 Feb 23, 2015 10:34 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 3:48 PM Flag

    Never congratulate a long who is holding any stock. Only congratulate them after they cash out. There are two parts of every trade. The buy and the sell. Most investors wait to sell once the stock has retreated or turns from a gain to a loss. No celebrations in order until profit if locked in with stock sold

  • Reply to

    Could be a first....

    by llpinter Feb 23, 2015 2:01 PM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Good luck. Almost 800B market cap. They are going to have to sell a ton of iPhones every year for the next 7 years to justify this market cap. You better hope they don't have a single down quarter YOY. If iPhone falls so does the market cap. iPads already falling into oblivion as refresh cycles loom large and phablet replacing. It's all iphone. All the time.

    They have to find a lot of new buyers and now that large screen demand is satisfied upgrade cycles will be slower.

    Worse yet the telecoms are in a price war. As their margins get cut don't count on them subsidizing iPhone to fill apple's fat coffers while they all lose money. Things are changing in telecom and apple won't be immune to the massive competion now that Sprint is chopping bills in half and T-Mobile is going for broke too. It's a race to the bottom and only so many dollars to go around. What happens when everyone has to pay full price for smartphone? Upgrade cycles will go from 1 to 2 years to 3 to 5 years. Devastating for apple.

  • equityrich equityrich Feb 23, 2015 2:26 PM Flag

    You are a stock market genius and destined to make millions from apple

  • the market is dramatically mispricing one or both of these. Kors is growing top line and same store sales at a very rapid pace with a bright outlook for 2015. Coach on the other hand continues to shrink revenues and same store sales are slumping and negative.

    One would think a much higher mulitple for the company growing would be afforded. Not the case. Coach is trading at a 30% higher multiple premium to the fast growing Kors versus Coach's self imploding business.

    It is sometimes funny to see just how irrational the market can be at times whether it be the momentum guys playing, the algo traders or technical guys watching charts.

    Either way Kors is now setup for a big upside run once the charts and all the other BS start to all of a sudden "work". Since going public one thing has always worked and that is Kors top and bottom line growth and same store sales growth. Phenomenal every quarter and beaten every quarter.

    I've seen this same thing play out before in many stocks that stay epoxied at low levels for months or years only to explode to the upside very quickly. Apple, Seagate, Adobe and tons of others. All stayed at depressed valuations while the businesses continued to prosper then all of a sudden the street one day decides to stop hating and ignoring the red headed stepchild.

    That day for Kors could be next week, next month or further out but if coach vs Kors valuations in contrast to each one of their businesses, balance sheet and fundamentals tells us something it is that this day will come.

  • If they learned anything from apple they are going to have to do one or all three soon. Stock is extremely important to retaining and attracting top talent. Google execs admitted this on the conf call. Now it is a matter of seeing if or when they act on it and which levers they pull.

    Another flatline or down year for google will make 2 in a row and the exodus will continue if they don't take some action to turn the stock around.

    My suggestion would be an authorization for 30B buyback. Start a dividend of $5/share which is about 1%. Split the stock 10 for 1.

    Even Tim Cook who is clueless realized he had to do all this and their stock has almost doubled since.

  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    It is a small part of their total revenues plus it remains to be seen if the biosimilar will get FDA approved and if patients will accept it.

    Remicade can have adverse infusion reactions among other complications. Patients and doctors are going to be very very nervous about taking long term patients off Remicade that has been working and risk a potentially fatal infusion reaction with some generic biosimilar.

    Biosimilar approvals are going to be a much bigger hurdle in the USA then generic approvals for non biologics.

    Also the patent was going to run out in 3 years (2018) anyway so even if the J&J appeal gets rejected they will still have traction up until the patent expires anyway. Also expiration has already been built into the numbers going out in 2018 by analysts and management.

    Today is typical trader type knee jerk read the headline and sell then move on stuff. Next....

  • Reply to

    Bad news event coming

    by auagboy Feb 12, 2015 11:30 AM
    equityrich equityrich Feb 12, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    Nope. Nobody died:

    https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#qscrl=1&tbs=qdr:d&tbm=nws&q=remicade

    Just sector rotation as I said.

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